The rise of the right in the mid-2010s

[buritobr]

Since the spread of the mass democracies in 1945, the mid-2010s is the time when the left is in the worst situation. The center-left parties are loosing their status of mass parties and they are becoming minor parties, the far-right is growing, the center-right is stable and the far left received only modest gains which are much smaller than the decline of the center-left.

In the early-2010s, the left was not in a so bad situation. Cristina Kirschner was reelected president of Argentina in 2011. In 2012, Obama was reelected, François Hollande was elected. Hugo Chávez was reelected. Fernando Haddad (Workers Party) was elected mayor of São Paulo, Brazilian biggest city. The SPD, the Greens and Linke did well in the German state elections. These parties were doing well in the national polls. The British Labour Party was doing well in the polls. Michelle Bachelet was elected president of Chile in 2013. Tabaré Vasquez was elected president of Uruguay in 2014.

However, since 2013, we can observe a collapse of the left in both sides of the Atlantic. The conservatives parties did very well in the 2013 federal election in Germany, and Merkel needed a great coalition only because both AfD and FDP had 4.5% and failed to reach 5%. Together, they got 9%. Dilma Rousseff was reelected president of Brazil in 2014, but the right had a huge victory in the legislative and in the state elections. The GOP won the midterm elections in the USA in 2014. The Tories had a big victory in the UK 2015 election.
And in 2015, 2016 and 2017 we can observe a contest between center (or center-right) and far-right in Poland, Argentina, Peru, USA, Netherlands and France. No left anymore.

[Kingpoleon]

1987-1992 begs to differ. Reagan/Bush, Thatcher, Kohl, Mulroney, the multiple leaders of Japan and Italy. Only France had a left-wing government.

[RFayette]

1987-1992 begs to differ. Reagan/Bush, Thatcher, Kohl, Mulroney, the multiple leaders of Japan and Italy. Only France had a left-wing government.

And what glorious days those were!  We were so close to repealing Roe v. Wade.

[Kingpoleon]

1987-1992 begs to differ. Reagan/Bush, Thatcher, Kohl, Mulroney, the multiple leaders of Japan and Italy. Only France had a left-wing government.

And what glorious days those were!  We were so close to repealing Roe v. Wade.

O'Connor, Souter, and Kennedy made that a bit difficult.

[Zuza]

On the other hand, the left radicalizes: Corbyn became the leader of the Labour in the UK; Podemos took large part of former PSOE voters in Spain; FI/PG is about to overtake PS as the leading force of the left in France; Sanders showed surprising success in the Democratic primaries; and all or almost all of the aforementioned leftists are especially popular among youth. We'll see how it ends.

[Don Vito Corleone]

1987-1992 begs to differ. Reagan/Bush, Thatcher, Kohl, Mulroney, the multiple leaders of Japan and Italy. Only France had a left-wing government.

And what glorious days those were!  We were so close to repealing Roe v. Wade.

When did that happen?

[Don Vito Corleone]

1987-1992 begs to differ. Reagan/Bush, Thatcher, Kohl, Mulroney, the multiple leaders of Japan and Italy. Only France had a left-wing government.

Mulroney really does not belong on that list, one of the main reasons his party fell apart was because his base felt he was not right wing enough.

[Associate Justice PiT]

1987-1992 begs to differ. Reagan/Bush, Thatcher, Kohl, Mulroney, the multiple leaders of Japan and Italy. Only France had a left-wing government.

And what glorious days those were!  We were so close to repealing Roe v. Wade.

When did that happen?

     Different SCOTUS nominees could potentially have led to a different outcome in Planned Parenthood v. Casey.

[buritobr]

Sure, there were some exceptions like Mitterrand in France, Felipe Gonzáles in Spain and Mário Soares in Portugal, but the turn from the 1980s to the 1990s was a very good time to the right. It was the time of Bush Sr, Thatcher, Kohl, many neoliberal presidents in Latin America, and the end of the communist bloc.
But the mainstream right was doing very well that time, the far right was still very small. Bush Sr was a social democrat if you compare him to Donald Trump. Kohl (CDU) was the German chancellor, but there was not such thing like the AfD that time.
In Brazil in 1989, the right-wing candidate Fernando Collor defeated Lula in a close election. But at that time, Lula was really left-wing, and Collor consider himself a centrist, because "right" was an ugly word in Brazil that time. Nowadays, "left" is an ugly word. Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro has 15% in the polls. We could not imagine this in 1989.
The far-left became slightly bigger in the 2010s, we can observe examples like Sanders, Melenchon, Linke, Podemos, Syriza and PSOL, but the increase of the far-left was much smaller than the disaster of the center-left.

At least, the Vatican moved to the left. Pope John Paul II was much more conservative than Pope Francis.

[Technocracy Timmy]

OP, this lecture is basically taking your observations and attempting to explain how we got here. It might help with your analysis

[mvd10]

1987-1992 begs to differ. Reagan/Bush, Thatcher, Kohl, Mulroney, the multiple leaders of Japan and Italy. Only France had a left-wing government.

Not to forget that France had a cohabitation government from 1986 to 1988 with Chirac as PM who basically controlled domestic affairs and governed as a Thatcherite.

[Indy Texas]

The liberal/Left consensus that governed the First World beginning after the end of WWII started coming apart in the late 1970s. You saw this with:

1976: Jimmy Carter - first Democratic president of the modern era who made no attempts to expand domestic social programs in any way; carried out an agenda of deregulation and tight monetary policy

1977: Menachem Begin - demolished the Mapai/Labor-dominated social democratic consensus that had existed in Israel since its founding; combined market liberalism with religious-influenced social conservatism

1979: Margaret Thatcher - we'll spell privatisation with an "s"

1980: Ronald Reagan

1984: Brian Mulroney in Canada

This belatedly happened in the Second and Third Worlds in the 1990s after the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union dissolved.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

The liberal/Left consensus that governed the First World beginning after the end of WWII started coming apart in the late 1970s. You saw this with:

1976: Jimmy Carter - first Democratic president of the modern era who made no attempts to expand domestic social programs in any way; carried out an agenda of deregulation and tight monetary policy

1977: Menachem Begin - demolished the Mapai/Labor-dominated social democratic consensus that had existed in Israel since its founding; combined market liberalism with religious-influenced social conservatism

1979: Margaret Thatcher - we'll spell privatisation with an "s"

1980: Ronald Reagan

1984: Brian Mulroney in Canada

This belatedly happened in the Second and Third Worlds in the 1990s after the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union dissolved.

To latch onto this, it's notable (if I'm recalling correctly) that in New Zealand and Australia both, economic liberalization was headed by Labor governments in the 1980's.

[pikachu]

Not that I'm the most knowledgeable about foreign politics, and I'm also skeptical of pan-national trends, but I feel like a lot of traditional center-right parties in the West have struggled to find a way between third wayers and populists. Just cherrypicking some elections frome the last two years, the Australoan Liberals are operating under a minority government after only three years in power, the GOP nomination was won by a man who wasn't your traditional American conservative rhetorically (though in government otoh...), the French right blew an easy victory, and the Tories couldn't win a majority against Jeremy Corbyn of all people. Better than social democrats, but hardly the greatest position imo.

Of course, this could also just be shoddy #analysis and I don't know what I'm talking about.

[SNJ1985]

Kohl (CDU) was the German chancellor, but there was not such thing like the AfD that time.

There was an AfD-esque party during the Kohl era, actually. They were most popular around 1989 and 1990.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Republicans_(Germany)

[Mr. Reactionary]

Thank you for cheering me up OP.

[Mike88]

Sure, there were some exceptions like Mitterrand in France, Felipe Gonzáles in Spain and Mário Soares in Portugal, but the turn from the 1980s to the 1990s was a very good time to the right. It was the time of Bush Sr, Thatcher, Kohl, many neoliberal presidents in Latin America, and the end of the communist bloc.
But the mainstream right was doing very well that time, the far right was still very small. Bush Sr was a social democrat if you compare him to Donald Trump. Kohl (CDU) was the German chancellor, but there was not such thing like the AfD that time.
In Brazil in 1989, the right-wing candidate Fernando Collor defeated Lula in a close election. But at that time, Lula was really left-wing, and Collor consider himself a centrist, because "right" was an ugly word in Brazil that time. Nowadays, "left" is an ugly word. Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro has 15% in the polls. We could not imagine this in 1989.
The far-left became slightly bigger in the 2010s, we can observe examples like Sanders, Melenchon, Linke, Podemos, Syriza and PSOL, but the increase of the far-left was much smaller than the disaster of the center-left.

At least, the Vatican moved to the left. Pope John Paul II was much more conservative than Pope Francis.

A small correction regarding Mário Soares. He was PM only between 1983 and 1985. The 80's and 90's in Portugal were dominated, essentially, by Cavaco Silva (PSD) who served as PM between 1985 and 1995.

[vanguard96]

On the other hand, the left radicalizes: Corbyn became the leader of the Labour in the UK; Podemos took large part of former PSOE voters in Spain; FI/PG is about to overtake PS as the leading force of the left in France; Sanders showed surprising success in the Democratic primaries; and all or almost all of the aforementioned leftists are especially popular among youth. We'll see how it ends.

"The American people will never knowingly adopt Socialism.  But, under the name of 'Liberalism', they will adopt every fragment of the Socialist program until one day America will be a Socialist nation, without knowing how it happened."
He went on to say: "I no longer need to run as a Presidential Candidate for the Socialist Party.  The Democrat Party has adopted our platform."
Norman Thomas, Socialist Party presidential candidate, 1944.

Note he puts liberalism in quotes.