How will increasing millennial voters shape the Dems, GOP & future elections?

[Shadows]

In 2016, Millennials equaled baby boomers, representing over 30 percent. In 2020, the project expects Millennials expand past 34 percent & by 2024 will represent 45 percent of voters. Much more diverse (over 40 percent are non-white) & secular,  Millennials have been a boon to Democrats. In one survey which looked at Millennials across 11 battleground states, three-fourths described Trump as a racist; an equal number said he was biased against women; and almost 70 percent said they would be “ashamed” if he won.

In the exit poll, Trump carried 36 percent of those voters, no better than Mitt Romney’s 37 percent in 2012. But Clinton’s support sagged to 55 percent from Obama’s 60 percent in 2012, as the remainder led away to minor-party alternatives. In the rust-belt states except Michigan, Clinton’s vote share among younger than 30 fell by double digits, while Trump improved by 7 to 9 percentage points over Romney.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/can-millennials-save-the-democratic-party/518523/

Democrats lead in % over GOP among 18-29 -

State          2012       2016

NC                  32%        25%
Virginia           25%        18%
Florida            34%        18%
Nevada           38%        17%
Michigan         28%         23%
Ohio               28%         9%
Wisconsin       23%          3%
Iowa              16%         -6%

[GlobeSoc]

Social issues get resolved in the democrats favor and promptly drop off the face of the earth, democrats shift left on economic issues and Republicans moderate on most issues. Thèse trends that I expect may also be compounded by the right-leaning social issue oriented baby boomers becoming less important.

[RINO Tom]

I'm with TD: you're going to get a Sanders-esque Democratic Party - staunchly and openly liberal in all policy areas - vs. a John Kasich Republican Party - pretty socially conservative but not "in your face" and an economically moderate/slightly more populist than Bush Era Republicans but still clearly the "efficient/competent" alternative to the Democrats' ideas.

[Brittain33]

Social issues get resolved in the democrats favor and promptly drop off the face of the earth

Same-sex marriage yes and religious issues yes, but what about abortion?

[pbrower2a]

The real question is whether Millennial voters get excited about political figures their own age. By 2018 the oldest Millennial voters will be 36, which is about when a generation starts making big headway into high political office. The large number of elderly politicians in high office practically ensures a steady stream of need for replacements.  

[Virginiá]

The real question is whether Millennial voters get excited about political figures their own age. By 2018 the oldest Millennial voters will be 36, which is about when a generation starts making big headway into high political office. The large number of elderly politicians in high office practically ensures a steady stream of need for replacements.  

I doubt that will be an issue. Millennials are not so politically apathetic that it would cause a large deficit in viable, potential politicians. In the past 3 presidential elections, their turnout rates have not actually been that bad, all things considered. There is also a whole lot of activism that will surely bring and keep a decent number of them in the fold.

-

As for the 2016 numbers for Democrats - I am not really stressing out over them. In many areas, Republicans did just as bad or worse than in 2012 (granted, the midwest was somewhat worrisome), but that Clinton had lost support to 3rd parties. This shows that they were more just disappointed in her than actually considering Republicans. If Democrats can run better candidates in 2020 and beyond, they should have no problem locking down Millennials.

[GlobeSoc]

Social issues get resolved in the democrats favor and promptly drop off the face of the earth

Same-sex marriage yes and religious issues yes, but what about abortion?

Still controversial, still legal, but less single-issue pro-lifers and less time is spent discussing it.

[Technocracy Timmy]

"Every generation revolts against its fathers and makes friends with its grandfathers." - Lewis Mumford


Millennials will likely resemble their G.I. Generation grandparents in their voting patterns.

These are so far the readily identifiable traits of millennials:

-higher self esteem
-less violent
-more risk averse
-less individualistic-more community/group oriented
-multi generational household living
-emotionally closer to their parents
-more likely to trust government
-confident about the future
-think "climbing the corporate ladder" is preferable to entrepreneurship
-most educated generation-highest rates of high school graduation and AP testing
-read more than older generations
-not as polarized politically as older generations

Sources for information: I, II, III


You'd be hard pressed to expect this generation to be anything but members of the Democratic Party. In fact I'd wager they'll be the most Democratic voting generation since the G.I. Generation. They're gonna not only shift the Democratic Party in ways that it compliments what they want, but the GOP will also be forced to moderate subtantilaly to cater to this generation.

[Shadows]

Some really great points, but looking at those numbers - I mean Florida & Nevada & stuff - If HRC had held onto Obama's number in Florida, it would be a comfortable win. Same in all the mid-west states, for people talking about Mid-west being out of play  -

30% of the voters in Wisconsin were millennials. The lead was only 3% (practically 0). If Obama's 23% lead was held on, then that would be a straight 6% boost which is enough to make Wisconsin a Likely D state in every single election. You can even afford to lose some other voters & still have a comfortable victory.

Policies are an interesting debate - Tuition free college will obviously be catching fire with Marijuana legalization, less interventions, etc ! The Republican party has to adapt, it is still not realizing what kind of a big problem it will face & the Democrats shouldn't take things for granted !


But while most of these voter lean Democratic, most of them don't identify with the Dem party & a huge section are registered independents, so you could see competent 3rd parties taking a huge share -

[Technocracy Timmy]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is an oxymoron

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

21% of those under 30 are Democrats? Well, the Democrats are obviously inevitable because of MUH DEMOGRAPHICS.

[Shadows]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This is an oxymoron

True ! But it's not very hard to be a little more competent that the 2016 candidates !

21% of those under 30 are Democrats? Well, the Democrats are obviously inevitable because of MUH DEMOGRAPHICS.

This is for White voters only. 40% of millennials are non-white. The number is a bit higher, but still not very good. But around 50% in different polls are Independents !

The number of Americans who identify themselves as politically independent (39 percent) is currently at its highest point in more than 75 years of Pew Research polling. This trend is particularly apparent among the millennial generation, 48 percent of whom identified as independent in the latest survey.

According to the Pew Research Center, 48 percent of millennials (ages 18–33) identify as independents. That’s almost as many as identify as Democrats (28 percent) and Republicans (18 percent) put together.

48/28/18 is pretty skewed - Another poll had it at 50-27-17. Technically it is not impossible for Republicans to get a large chunk of these independents (if they adapt/change some policies) as most of them lean Dem in policies !


http://www.newsweek.com/why-millennials-stopped-being-party-people-443201

http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/04/14/48-millennials-refuse-identify-republican-democrat/

[SingingAnalyst]

Many of the social changes are already with us.

The biggest question might be what politics look like with an electorate that is simultaneously more educated and much closer to poverty.

How will a cohort in which home ownership, stable employment, dental insurance, and retirement savings are closer to dream than reality vote, if they vote in large enough numbers to matter?

How will a cohort vote when its members are more likely to be paying hundreds of dollars per month toward student loans than a mortgage even by their early thirties?

How will a cohort vote when it is locked out of home ownership except in the places that have been eviscerated and metaphorically strip mined to the point that nothing is left but service jobs waiting on the retirees who were too poor to leave - maybe as a nurse if you have the right skills, but more likely as a waiter or home health aid?

Excellent questions, and I think we know the answers.

Add to this a generation for whom a conservative social message simply does not connect, and we get 35-40% support for Trump vs. 50%+ for Clinton among those under 40. As the GOP updates its platform and views this may change a bit in favor of the GOP, but it may be too little too late. The economic factors will remain.

Famous lines from our current GOP President and the last GOP nominee were "You're fired!" and "I like to be able to fire people". They will have to do better than that.

[Tancred]

Politics and party affiliation will likely become more class-based as social issues become less important.

The wild card will be the impact of identitarian movements based on race, religion or ethnicity. Nationalism is rising in much of the developed world but I am not sure how that will play out in the United States since we are a colonial/settler society unlike, say, Europe.