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| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Torie)
| | |-+  How did Bill Clinton manage to win Arizona in 1996?
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Author Topic: How did Bill Clinton manage to win Arizona in 1996?  (Read 451 times)
Fremont Senator Henry Wallace
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« on: May 15, 2017, 08:35:32 am »
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The state hadn't been won by a Democrat since 1948, and it hasn't been won by one since.
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2017, 08:45:07 am »
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He narrowed the margin in Maricopa county from -8.5 in 1992 to -2.7 in 1996. And this was because the growing economy in 1996 made him more acceptable to many suburbanites
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #2 on: May 15, 2017, 08:50:02 am »
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Gore won about 2% less than Clinton in 2000, yet Bush won 7% more in 2000 than Dole had won in 1996.  Even with some improvement among suburbanites (a group Clinton still lost in Arizona), I'd say most of the Perot votes would have been Bush votes in this state.
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« Reply #3 on: May 15, 2017, 11:16:18 am »
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Clinton winning Arizona can be explained by a combination of five factors:
1. Dole's weaknesses among Hispanic voters.
2. Dole underperforming badly among seniors and retirees, in part because of the social security issue.
3. Perot: Clinton won the state by 2, and Perot got 8%. Most of these voters would have gone to Dole.
4. Clinton targeting the state like crazy: He wanted to be the first Democrat to win AZ since Truman in 1948. He also targeted Republican states like Texas, Virginia, South Dakota, but lost those in the end.
5. Republicans running anti-Dole ads in the Republican primary in AZ, which hurt his favorability numbers there. Remember, Forbes won AZ - it was one of the few states Dole lost.
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