Clinton winning Arizona can be explained by a combination of five factors:
1. Dole's weaknesses among Hispanic voters.
2. Dole underperforming badly among seniors and retirees, in part because of the social security issue.
3. Perot: Clinton won the state by 2, and Perot got 8%. Most of these voters would have gone to Dole.
4. Clinton targeting the state like crazy: He wanted to be the first Democrat to win AZ since Truman in 1948. He also targeted Republican states like Texas, Virginia, South Dakota, but lost those in the end.
5. Republicans running anti-Dole ads in the Republican primary in AZ, which hurt his favorability numbers there. Remember, Forbes won AZ - it was one of the few states Dole lost.
