Which is dumber electoral analysis?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Option 1 of course refers to how some here try to act as if every election, no matter how minor or what the issues are, is the Ultimate Referendum on Trump. Option 2 refers to things like predicting Sanders would be nominated because of Corbyn, or that Le Pen would win because of Trump/Brexit.

As idiotic as option 1 is, there is at least some truth to it in that coattails can exist in a bad year for one party on election day, as evidenced by the state legislative flips of 2006 and 2010. Option 2 is pretty much demonstrably false with too many counter-examples to cite, and has essentially no bearing in reality, so I vote for it.

[Torie]

BRTD, both have some truth. The same economic trends are going on in Western Europe to some degree that are going on in the US due to globalization, the flow of lower skilled populations into more prosperous counties, and labor saving computerization/mechanization, with the working class standard of living stagnating as the work force has to compete with all those hard working Chinese and Indians and so forth, along with hard working immigrants. Thus we have Brexit and Trump. But yeah, the analogies can be way overdone.

[Associate Justice PiT]

BRTD, both have some truth. The same economic trends are going on in Western Europe to some degree that are going on in the US due to globalization, the flow of lower skilled populations into more prosperous counties, and labor saving computerization/mechanization, with the working class standard of living stagnating as the work force has to compete with all those hard working Chinese and Indians and so forth, along with hard working immigrants. Thus we have Brexit and Trump. But yeah, the analogies can be way overdone.

     They ignore cultural differences in attitudes, though. France is subject to similar pressures as Britain, but the French people reacted differently in part because of fundamental differences in culture. Analogous events can happen in different countries, but trying to prognosticate based on this is a fool's errand.

[Kingpoleon]

Both are a bit more credible than you seem to think.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BRTD, both have some truth. The same economic trends are going on in Western Europe to some degree that are going on in the US due to globalization, the flow of lower skilled populations into more prosperous counties, and labor saving computerization/mechanization, with the working class standard of living stagnating as the work force has to compete with all those hard working Chinese and Indians and so forth, along with hard working immigrants. Thus we have Brexit and Trump. But yeah, the analogies can be way overdone.

     They ignore cultural differences in attitudes, though. France is subject to similar pressures as Britain, but the French people reacted differently in part because of fundamental differences in culture. Analogous events can happen in different countries, but trying to prognosticate based on this is a fool's errand.

Yeah, exactly. Yes, there are common trends reshaping the politics of Western democracies (I'd better believe that, since I'm planning to write a dissertation on it!), but those trends aren't so much about who wins elections (which is eminently contingent) but rather on the lines along which those elections are fought.

[Technocracy Timmy]

BRTD, both have some truth. The same economic trends are going on in Western Europe to some degree that are going on in the US due to globalization, the flow of lower skilled populations into more prosperous counties, and labor saving computerization/mechanization, with the working class standard of living stagnating as the work force has to compete with all those hard working Chinese and Indians and so forth, along with hard working immigrants. Thus we have Brexit and Trump. But yeah, the analogies can be way overdone.

     They ignore cultural differences in attitudes, though. France is subject to similar pressures as Britain, but the French people reacted differently in part because of fundamental differences in culture. Analogous events can happen in different countries, but trying to prognosticate based on this is a fool's errand.

Yeah, exactly. Yes, there are common trends reshaping the politics of Western democracies (I'd better believe that, since I'm planning to write a dissertation on it!), but those trends aren't so much about who wins elections (which is eminently contingent) but rather on the lines along which those elections are fought.

Here's a good source that might help with your dissertation: Link.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BRTD, both have some truth. The same economic trends are going on in Western Europe to some degree that are going on in the US due to globalization, the flow of lower skilled populations into more prosperous counties, and labor saving computerization/mechanization, with the working class standard of living stagnating as the work force has to compete with all those hard working Chinese and Indians and so forth, along with hard working immigrants. Thus we have Brexit and Trump. But yeah, the analogies can be way overdone.

     They ignore cultural differences in attitudes, though. France is subject to similar pressures as Britain, but the French people reacted differently in part because of fundamental differences in culture. Analogous events can happen in different countries, but trying to prognosticate based on this is a fool's errand.

Yeah, exactly. Yes, there are common trends reshaping the politics of Western democracies (I'd better believe that, since I'm planning to write a dissertation on it!), but those trends aren't so much about who wins elections (which is eminently contingent) but rather on the lines along which those elections are fought.

Here's a good source that might help with your dissertation: Link.

That's a little out of my area since I study poli sci, not economics, but this seems like a good article. Thanks.

[kyc0705]

Both are a bit more credible than you seem to think.

Both are mostly garbage in practice, however.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK does anyone here seriously think that "Corbyn's victory means Sanders will win" wasn't complete bullsh!t? Alas too many here bought into "Brexit and Trump mean Le Pen wins" but seriously, what about that one?

For that matter this can be easily disproved by comparing the 2006 and 2008 elections in Canada, the country most closely linked to and culturally similar to the US, to the US. Or hell even 2014/16 vs. 2015 in Canada for that matter.

[Technocracy Timmy]

OK does anyone here seriously think that "Corbyn's victory means Sanders will win" wasn't complete bullsh!t? Alas too many here bought into "Brexit and Trump mean Le Pen wins" but seriously, what about that one?

For that matter this can be easily disproved by comparing the 2006 and 2008 elections in Canada, the country most closely linked to and culturally similar to the US, to the US. Or hell even 2014/16 vs. 2015 in Canada for that matter.

I do think there is a clear rise in populism (largely from the right-but also from the left) in western countries. Trying to pinpoint exact electoral victories and dates with other countries won't be accurate as you've explained, but the post financial crisis political scene of western countries has seen a very sharp rise in populists from both the left and right. Even if they come up short, there's no denying that they're performing significantly better than they did in the pre-financial crisis world.

A more complete outlook can be viewed here. The first 17 minutes should be enough but the entire lecture better explains the macroeconomic (and to a lesser extent, the social) underpinning to this rise in populism.