Which of these states will be the first to break their Republican streak?

[Xing]

All of these states last went Democratic in 1964. Which one will be the first to go Democratic? Alaska does seem to be the obvious choice, but it's harder to guess which one would be the next to fall. Utah and Kansas were the 2nd and 3rd smallest wins for Trump, but the Dakotas seem more elastic, and might be more likely to go Democratic in a landslide. I'm guessing that if most of these states eventually do go Democratic in an election, Wyoming will be the last holdout, though Oklahoma could be as well.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The Dem swing in Utah seems to be a Trump-specific phenomena so I'll rule that out.

Honestly in a realignment in 2020/2024 I could see the Democratic candidate flipping Alaska first and possibly Kansas as well.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Utah will go back to 60-70 percent Republican once the Dear Leader isn't on the ticket anymore. I'd say Alaska followed by Kansas and then either Nebraska or South Dakota, since Kansas and Nebraska seem to vote so similarly to one another in presidentials.

[SingingAnalyst]

AK or SD. Definitely not UT, ID, WY, or OK.

[Skunk]

Alaska's probably gonna vote Democrat in about 20-30 years or so based just on trends so I'd say that one would be the first. I don't see my state ever voting Democratic anytime soon so I'd say that's the last holdout.

[jamestroll]

The democratic swing in Utah would have been significantly more if Bernie Sanders was the nominee instead of Hillary.

Also McMullin pulled a lot of previous Obama 08 voters and a lot of former Matheson and current McAdams voters.

The Utah swing was Trump related but I could see Utah becoming more purplish as time goes on.  Utah is very Republican due to LDS tribal voting but less conservative than it appears.

[RINO Tom]

Either AK or one of the Dakotas.  All will remain solidly Republican over the coming decades, even as the party changes, though.

[Skill and Chance]

Definitely Alaska for voting Dem 1st.  Kansas is the obvious runner up.  There is at least a few percent chance that UT votes 3rd party in 2020, but it will be a long, long time before it votes Dem.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The democratic swing in Utah would have been significantly more if Bernie Sanders was the nominee instead of Hillary.

Also McMullin pulled a lot of previous Obama 08 voters and a lot of former Matheson and current McAdams voters.

The Utah swing was Trump related but I could see Utah becoming more purplish as time goes on.  Utah is very Republican due to LDS tribal voting but less conservative than it appears.

Utah gives driver's licenses to illegal immigrants and subsidizes housing for the homeless, very odd for such a deep red state.

[TDAS04]

Probably Alaska.

[Santander]

Alaska. Bakken put ND out of reach for Democrats for at least a generation.

[Skill and Chance]

Alaska. Bakken put ND out of reach for Democrats for at least a generation.

Alaska has plenty of oilfield workers, too.

[Santander]

Alaska. Bakken put ND out of reach for Democrats for at least a generation.

Alaska has plenty of oilfield workers, too.

What I meant was that it was close to being within reach for Democrats before the Bakken population boom.

[The_Doctor]

Kansas, easily. The moderate Republicans are ripe to become Democratic over the next decade.

[Figueira]

Alaska, although I guess a very weird event could flip Utah.

[Former President tack50]

All of these states last went Democratic in 1964. Which one will be the first to go Democratic? Alaska does seem to be the obvious choice, but it's harder to guess which one would be the next to fall. Utah and Kansas were the 2nd and 3rd smallest wins for Trump, but the Dakotas seem more elastic, and might be more likely to go Democratic in a landslide. I'm guessing that if most of these states eventually do go Democratic in an election, Wyoming will be the last holdout, though Oklahoma could be as well.

My guess:

There's a chance of Utah going for an independent (McMullin?) if Democrats nominate a far leftist and Trump doubles down on being Trump by 2020 (with Pence, there's no chance of that).

Other than that, Alaska in the long run, but if it happens soon (2024 or earlier), maybe South Dakota instead?.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Out of all those, Nebraska 2nd is the only plausible one. Otherwise Alaska is a distant second. But all of those are solid Red except Nebraska 2nd.

[Figueira]

Out of all those, Nebraska 2nd is the only plausible one. Otherwise Alaska is a distant second. But all of those are solid Red except Nebraska 2nd.

Nebraska's 2nd has already flipped, and CDs change every ten years anyway.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Out of all those, Nebraska 2nd is the only plausible one. Otherwise Alaska is a distant second. But all of those are solid Red except Nebraska 2nd.

Nebraska's 2nd has already flipped, and CDs change every ten years anyway.

It's purplish red. It narrowly voted for Trump, and kicked out Ashford.

[Figueira]

Out of all those, Nebraska 2nd is the only plausible one. Otherwise Alaska is a distant second. But all of those are solid Red except Nebraska 2nd.

Nebraska's 2nd has already flipped, and CDs change every ten years anyway.

It's purplish red. It narrowly voted for Trump, and kicked out Ashford.

It flipped in 2008 (and IIRC still would have flipped with the current borders).

[RI]

The democratic swing in Utah would have been significantly more if Bernie Sanders was the nominee instead of Hillary.

Also McMullin pulled a lot of previous Obama 08 voters and a lot of former Matheson and current McAdams voters.

The Utah swing was Trump related but I could see Utah becoming more purplish as time goes on.  Utah is very Republican due to LDS tribal voting but less conservative than it appears.

Utah gives driver's licenses to illegal immigrants and subsidizes housing for the homeless, very odd for such a deep red state.

It's not weird at all if you understand Mormons.

[Chinggis]

Alaska is definitely trending Democratic. I'm not saying it'll be voting like Washington and Oregon anytime soon, but the potential is there and little cracks have been appearing in the Republican machine for years now. Stevens losing in 2008 was a canary in the coal mine for the state GOP, suprising me even after his conviction.


Utah is rockribbed Republican. 2016 proved the Republican fidelity of most interior western Mormons. Hillary Clinton, Evan McMullin, and Gary Johnson all thought they had a legitimate shot at Utah's electoral votes, and look what happened. I could see a blatantly anti-Mormon Republican nominee putting the state in danger, but as the years go on I think there's less chance of such a GOP nominee.

Idaho will be one of the last four or five states in the nation to go Democratic. It would take a special combination of a truly national landslide, mass Mormon defections in the southeast, etc. Very, very unlikely but not "impossible."

Wyoming would be the last state to vote Democratic. This would be one of the states to vote Trump if he gunned someone down on Fifth Avenue. The Democratic brand is, has been, and forever will be toxic in this state. It's cowboy country with coal mines. It's unwinnable. I won't see it flip if I live to be a hundred.

North Dakota for the foreseeable future may be unwinnable, but what happens if/when the fracking boom goes bust and all those oil field workers leave the state and Williston turns into Butte-on-the-Plains? This is long-term stuff but people need to remember that North Dakota is historically highly elastic. In 1920, 1940, 1952, 1980, 2000, and 2016 voters reacted violently to incumbent Democrats. Then they turn on the GOP, massive swings to Democrats/third parties happen, and people talk about "it's a swing state now." All that being said, ND is unlikely in the near future, but not unrealistic in the long run.

South Dakota doesn't have extractive industry on the same scale as its northern twin but is also highly prone to violent anti-incumbent swings and general weirdness. That being said, it's voted Democratic only four times in history (1896, 1932, 1936, 1964). Unlikely in the near future, but not impossible forever.

Nebraska: I'm waiting for the Lincoln-based district to flip, at least once, in the near future. Probably in the next national Democratic landslide. NE-2 will tag along of course. NE-3 last voted Democratic in 1936 and I'm actually confident predicting it will never vote for another Democrat before its inevitable demise. Nebraska at-large is unlikely in the near future, but somewhat more likely than, say, Idaho. The problem is, even if NE-1 goes narrowly Dem and NE-2 goes solid Dem, the Republican margin in NE-3 will be very tough to overcome.

Kansas: I think the 2014 races were a red flag to Republicans, or should have been, and Clinton nearly winning Johnson County even more so. This is one state that has been so screwed up, frankly, by radical right-wing experimentation that I expect it to vote for the next landslide Democrat as a "screw you!" to those people (and then return quietly to GOP supremacy as it always does).

Oklahoma is unwinnable for the next few generations, if not forever. If Wyoming is the last state to vote Republican, Oklahoma is right there with it. The culture, demographics, etc are just brutal for Democrats.

[NOVA Green]

Alaska....

We look forward to them joining Washington, Oregon, and British Columbia as fellow comrades and allies from the Pacific Northwest.....

[OSR stands with Israel]

Alaska....

We look forward to them joining Washington, Oregon, and British Columbia as fellow comrades and allies from the Pacific Northwest.....

Harper won there

[Spark]

Alaska