How much will the recent Trump drama affect the upcoming special elections?

[Virginiá]

In light of recent developments, it seems like there is great potential for Gianforte and Handel to suffer some setbacks - particularly Montana, as the Republican is already somewhat ahead and a scandal like this dragging down the Republican Party's brand so close to the election is dangerous for him. However, all things considered, I feel GA-6 may be a lot more vulnerable to this than Montana.

Ftr: I'm not even including "tilt to Republican" because that is kind of absurd, given the circumstances.


Thoughts?

[The Other Castro]

I don't know if it will tilt the race(s) to the Democrats, but I do know that the media will certainly say it did if Democrats do win.

[windjammer]

Ossoff was  the favorite to me, so maybe it would solidify his standing.

Regarding MT, what might hurt the pubs is decreased rep turnout and increased dem turnout, but I still expect Gianforte to win, as Quist has run a terrible campaign.

[Xing]

It may have a small effect on them. It could be enough to put Ossoff over the top, but I doubt it will be enough for Quist to beat Pianoforte.

[GlobeSoc]

GA-06: TOSSUP to LEAN D
MT-AL: LEAN R to TOSSUP.

[Skill and Chance]

Almost surely helps Ossoff, unlikely that it helps Quist.

[Gass3268]

Almost surely helps Ossoff, unlikely that it helps Quist.

What about the CBO score for AHCA getting released just days before?

[Skill and Chance]

Almost surely helps Ossoff, unlikely that it helps Quist.

What about the CBO score for AHCA getting released just days before?

See the main MT-AL thread.  Quist has had the kitchen sink thrown at him in a state that at least leans to the opposite party.  I think he needs a New Deal level pro-Dem environment at this point.

[Figueira]

Remember that the GA-06 election isn't until June 20, whereas the Montana election is next week. That could mean any number of different things depending on what happens in the intervening time re: Trump.

[Virginiá]

Remember that the GA-06 election isn't until June 20, whereas the Montana election is next week. That could mean any number of different things depending on what happens in the intervening time re: Trump.

I'm wondering if all of this scandal will work the same way others have with Trump - temporary dip in approvals/favorables, then a bounce back in week(s). At some point, something has to stick, especially with this kind of scandal, but then again, it is still extremely early in his presidency and his supporters by and large are probably not "fatigued" yet with him.

Honestly its fascinating in itself that we are even talking about all of this right now. He literally just became president and he's already embroiled in Watergate-level drama. It kind of gives us a whole new way to observe the depth of partisan loyalty.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I get the sense that GA-06 is much more of a national race than MT-AL, which when it comes right down to it is largely on local issues. If national things shift MT at all, it'll be the AHCA and not Donald Trump's Horrible, Terrible, No-Good, Very Low Energy Week.

[Angrie]

It should have a marginal effect, shifting things maybe a few points on average. The effect should be somewhat stronger in places that had strong anti-Trump shifts (like GA-06) than in places like MT that did not.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He got in on the wind of change, Trump, by changing the ethics of DC, being an outsider. He destroyed that with being so tied to McConnell and the leadership in the Senate.

Now, that corruption has been brought back, the Dems can start winning like before.