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| | |-+  Which of these states is most likely to flip Democratic in 2020?
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Question: Which of these states is most likely to flip Democratic in 2020?
Arizona   -49 (81.7%)
Georgia   -9 (15%)
Texas   -2 (3.3%)
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Total Voters: 60

Author Topic: Which of these states is most likely to flip Democratic in 2020?  (Read 723 times)
Fremont Senator Henry Wallace
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« on: May 17, 2017, 09:21:23 am »
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I think Arizona.
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« Reply #1 on: May 17, 2017, 11:10:44 am »
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AZ and GA are equally likely at this point. Texas isn't flipping.
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« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2017, 10:29:00 pm »
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Lean Georgia.  Texas could be the NC or AZ of a 2008 or 1996 level win, but it shouldn't flip that soon.
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« Reply #3 on: May 17, 2017, 10:33:08 pm »
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I could see Georgia flipping and not looking back, a la Virginia. But I can also see Arizona being more friendly to Democrats downballot than Georgia going forward.
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« Reply #4 on: May 17, 2017, 10:37:06 pm »
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Arizona
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« Reply #5 on: May 17, 2017, 10:49:49 pm »
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I could see Georgia flipping and not looking back, a la Virginia. But I can also see Arizona being more friendly to Democrats downballot than Georgia going forward.

Perhaps, but only because of redistricting laws and runoff laws, not because AZ is inherently more Dem downballot.
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« Reply #6 on: May 17, 2017, 11:13:13 pm »
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Democrats just need to do a tad better in Maricopa to flip Arizona I feel like so I'd go with AZ.
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« Reply #7 on: May 17, 2017, 11:45:17 pm »
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Leaning towards Georgia. I don't think Texas will be competitive in 2020, so it's not even a consideration.
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2017, 11:40:40 pm »
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AZ
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« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2017, 09:56:27 am »
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I'd say all 3 tied up.
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« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2017, 09:57:15 am »
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AZ>GA>>>TX
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« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2017, 10:10:35 am »
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Easily Arizona.  Georgia and Texas still have almost no chance of flipping.
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« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2017, 12:16:41 pm »
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Georgia, for the simple fact that Texas is too much of an uphill climb at the moment, and nothing seems able to bring the Dems in Arizona above 44%, which they've gotten on a consistent basis for five consecutive cycles now.
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« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2017, 02:48:18 pm »
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Georgia, for the simple fact that Texas is too much of an uphill climb at the moment, and nothing seems able to bring the Dems in Arizona above 44%, which they've gotten on a consistent basis for five consecutive cycles now.
Carmona was the only one to break that ceiling for the Democrats, right?
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« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2017, 03:52:51 pm »
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Georgia, for the simple fact that Texas is too much of an uphill climb at the moment, and nothing seems able to bring the Dems in Arizona above 44%, which they've gotten on a consistent basis for five consecutive cycles now.
Carmona was the only one to break that ceiling for the Democrats, right?

Looks that way. They haven't had a Dem governor since 2006 (the Dems have since gotten well below the 44% line) and except 2012, the Senate races have been the same since decades.
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« Reply #15 on: May 19, 2017, 07:19:48 pm »
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Georgia, for the simple fact that Texas is too much of an uphill climb at the moment, and nothing seems able to bring the Dems in Arizona above 44%, which they've gotten on a consistent basis for five consecutive cycles now.
Carmona was the only one to break that ceiling for the Democrats, right?

Looks that way. They haven't had a Dem governor since 2006 (the Dems have since gotten well below the 44% line) and except 2012, the Senate races have been the same since decades.


Dem nominee for AG put 47% on GOP nominee in '14, Terry Goddard put 47.75% On Michelle Reagan in '14, David Garcia put 49% on a GOP nominee and lost by 16,000 votes in '14...a GOP wave year(These are all statewide races btw)

Paul Penzone won Maricopa County(60% of states population) by 12 points
Adrian Fontes won Maricopa county as well
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« Reply #16 on: May 19, 2017, 07:43:08 pm »
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Georgia, for the simple fact that Texas is too much of an uphill climb at the moment, and nothing seems able to bring the Dems in Arizona above 44%, which they've gotten on a consistent basis for five consecutive cycles now.
Carmona was the only one to break that ceiling for the Democrats, right?

Looks that way. They haven't had a Dem governor since 2006 (the Dems have since gotten well below the 44% line) and except 2012, the Senate races have been the same since decades.


Dem nominee for AG put 47% on GOP nominee in '14, Terry Goddard put 47.75% On Michelle Reagan in '14, David Garcia put 49% on a GOP nominee and lost by 16,000 votes in '14...a GOP wave year(These are all statewide races btw)

Paul Penzone won Maricopa County(60% of states population) by 12 points
Adrian Fontes won Maricopa county as well

Statewide executive voting can differ from Senate/President though, just look at Kansas which had a Dem governor in the last decade.
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« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2017, 08:26:47 pm »
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Arizona, though if growth in the Atlanta area increases, and the suburbs are as anti-Trump as they were in 2016, Georgia is possible.
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« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2017, 07:00:23 pm »
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Arizona. But all 3 will go GOP in the end.
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2017, 07:17:56 pm »
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I could see Georgia flipping and not looking back, a la Virginia. But I can also see Arizona being more friendly to Democrats downballot than Georgia going forward.

Perhaps, but only because of redistricting laws and runoff laws, not because AZ is inherently more Dem downballot.

That, and Arizona has an independent commission drawing their district lines.
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« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2017, 02:04:44 pm »
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AZ>GA>>>TX
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« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2017, 10:58:07 pm »
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Voted Arizona, but I'm not as sure of it as everyone else here seems to be. Georgia seems about as likely, honestly.
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