Who has a more than 5% chance of being the 2020 Dem. nominee?

[Mr. Morden]

Pick all the choices you think have a more than 5% chance at the nomination.  I guess potentially, that could be up to 20 people.  But realistically, probably closer to ~5-7 or so names.

[President Johnson]

Booker, Bullock, Cuomo, Harris, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Ryan, Sanders and Warren.

Biden would have a decent chance as well, but I doubt he's actually running.

[Xing]

Biden, Harris, and Sanders. Brown might if he chose to run.

[NewYorkExpress]

Warren, Biden (if he runs), Sanders (if he runs), Gillibrand, Kloubuchar and Franken (if he runs)

[Canis]

Warren Biden and Harris

[AN63093]

Biden
Booker
Brown
Bullock
Cuomo
Franken
Gabbard
Gillibrand
Harris
Klobuchar
Sanders
Warren


Basically everyone that I think might run, I'd give at least a 5% chance, with the exception of O'Malley.

At the end of the day I don't think some of these will run, like Sanders and Biden.  Also, just because I think someone has a 5% chance, doesn't mean I think they are a serious threat (yet).  That list is much smaller, maybe 3 or 4 names.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warren Biden and Harris

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Biden, Booker, Bullock, Clinton, Franken, Gillibrand, Harris, McAuliffe, Newson, Ryan, Sanders, Warren.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Biden, Booker, Gillibrand, Harris, Warren, Sanders

[MT Treasurer]

Biden, Booker, Clinton, Franken, Gillibrand, Harris, McAuliffe, Sanders, Warren.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Biden, Booker, Bullock, Clinton, Franken, Gillibrand, Harris, McAuliffe, Sanders, Warren.

Didn't you fervently oppose any attempt to frame Bullock as a potential nominee?

[Meatball Ron]

I've listed each candidate's odds of becoming the nominee, in my opinion, as well as a scale of 1 to 10 rating of how I would personally feel about them becoming the nominee. Had a hard time formatting tables on this site, so I'm embedding it as an image.

Very interested to hear who people think I'm over/underestimating. But if you include one, please include the other, since it's a zero-sum game.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I've listed each candidate's odds of becoming the nominee, in my opinion, as well as a scale of 1 to 10 rating of how I would personally feel about them becoming the nominee. Had a hard time formatting tables on this site, so I'm embedding it as an image.

Very interested to hear who people think I'm over/underestimating. But if you include one, please include the other, since it's a zero-sum game.

I think you're definitely underestimating Warren and Biden, and overestimating Booker and Gillibrand. Also, waay overestimating Patrick and Cuomo, their chances are very low imho.

[kyc0705]

Biden, Booker, and Harris all seem at least nominally interested and have the potential to build a well-resourced campaign. I still don't understand Atlas's obsession with obscure figures like Bullock and Kander.

[Meatball Ron]

I think you're definitely underestimating Warren and Biden, and overestimating Booker and Gillibrand. Also, waay overestimating Patrick and Cuomo, their chances are very low imho.

Yeah, that's fair. My rating for Biden is largely premised on the fact that I doubt he's gonna run, and for Warren it's because I'm lukewarm on whether she'll run and whether people will be dissuaded in the primary by perceived electability issues.

If I had done it as "odds they'll be nominated if they run," the numbers would look very different. For these, I just wanted to make it add up to 100%, and even though I think it's unlikely that Booker or Gilibrand will be the nominees, they seem like the two likeliest people individually to win in a Biden-less, Bernie-less field.

Hope you're right about Booker and Cuomo though. I can't stand either.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

lol @ all the people voting for Bullock.