Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Dr. Arch]

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?

Barely, but yes.

[pbrower2a]

Wow, didn't he (Trump) carry upstate in 2016?

Barely, but yes.

Many of his voters of 2016 are catching on. I found that I was to the Right of the Republican nominee for President on issues of national security... something that I could have imagined for myself as late as five years or so ago in the unlikely case in which I become a Bircher.

Upstate New York is much like Wisconsin or Iowa, states that went for Obama twice and then went for the Great Demagogue. I'm guessing that undereducated white people are beginning to recognize that President Trump intends only to enrich those already rich and make life harder for the working class.

As I have suggested before, one of the reasons that Democrats have done so well in high-cost areas is that people in urban areas find the landlord more of a taker than the tax man. That describes New York, Boston, Washington DC, Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle, and Los Angeles very well. In some rural areas, the landlord may be a near-pauper or housing might be so cheap that one can buy it on SSI or one of the 'great jobs' at a box store.

This week's Q poll suggests that elderly voters (now about half of them were born in the 1940s and early 1950s as people born in the 1930s are dropping off like flies) are beginning to reject President Trump. Maybe the talk of privatizing Medicare and Social Security scares the Hell out of them. Sure, that is the Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress more than the President.   

Losing areas by big margins that one barely won or barely lost in the previous election? That's what happened to Hoover and Carter. Approval polls are not votes, but they are excellent portents. The trick is in interpreting those polls.  If President Trump were at all effective, then we would be seeing approval ratings in the high 40s, at the least, in such states as Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. His approvals in such states are around 40%. Almost any elected official is going to see polling below his percentage in the previous election as he makes decisions as a legislator or administrator that might prove controversial. But there is as usual limit to how far that goes. Being on the right side on most issues is a good way to keep one's approval rating in the high 40s. To disappoint voters as badly as President Trump has is to set oneself up for defeat at the next election.

We Americans may be the people most amenable to free-market solutions, but even we have limits on how much we tolerate abuse in the name of Mammon.
   

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 24th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 55% (-/-)

[Yank2133]

I don't know if this is the right place to put it, but new polling on the AHCA.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2461

And this numbers came before the CBO came out.......

[heatcharger]

UNH poll of New Hampshire (change from early May):

Approve 34% (-9)
Disapprove 56% (+9)

[Wiz in Wis]

UNH poll of New Hampshire (change from early May):

Approve 34% (-9)
Disapprove 56% (+9)

[Gass3268]

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?

This is a useless poll. It has fair lumped in, which is dumb

In this situation it's best to just look at favorably. The two aren't very different right now.

[heatcharger]

MRG poll of Michigan:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 51%

[SingingAnalyst]

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?

This is a useless poll. It has fair lumped in, which is dumb

In this situation it's best to just look at favorably. The two aren't very different right now.

The similarity between NYC and the rest of NY struck me as odd, until I realized that most outstate probably rated him "fair" and those in NYC "Poor" (or worse).

[pbrower2a]

First statewide poll in this new polling forum. I expect New York State to hold the President in contempt, but this badly? Wow! How often is the lowest popularity of a President in his home state? Maybe the more that people know him, the less they like him. I don't have a category for 'under 30%' because I couldn't see its relevance.

I'm guessing that New Yorkers do not like the landlord class. Maybe that's a heritage that goes back to when the Dutch ruled and tried to establish the feudal patroon system.  

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?

It looks as if he has disappointed many of his 2016 voters.

New Hampshire:

UNH poll of New Hampshire (change from early May):

Approve 34% (-9)
Disapprove 56% (+9)

Trump barely lost this state in November.  Jimmy Carter without character. Sure, he can win in 2020 without New Hampshire -- but any Trump win of re-election will have new Hampshire at least close to being a win for him if he doesn't win it outright.

Michigan. I got polled for this one. Second poll of the year.

MRG poll of Michigan:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 51%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as president? [IF APPROVE / DISAPPROVE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (approve / disapprove) or just somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

 

Strongly approve……………….25%

Somewhat approve……………..15%

Neither approve or disapprove….7%

Somewhat disapprove…………..7%

Strongly disapprove ……………44%

Don’t know……………………..2%

Look at the "Strong disapprove" category. There's much anger about President Trump.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

First statewide poll in this new polling forum. I expect New York State to hold the President in contempt, but this badly? Wow! How often is the lowest popularity of a President in his home state? Maybe the more that people know him, the less they like him. I don't have a category for 'under 30%' because I couldn't see its relevance.

I'm guessing that New Yorkers do not like the landlord class. Maybe that's a heritage that goes back to when the Dutch ruled and tried to establish the feudal patroon system.  

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

Wow, didn't he carry upstate in 2016?

It looks as if he has disappointed many of his 2016 voters.

New Hampshire:

UNH poll of New Hampshire (change from early May):

Approve 34% (-9)
Disapprove 56% (+9)

Trump barely lost this state in November.  Jimmy Carter without character. Sure, he can win in 2020 without New Hampshire -- but any Trump win of re-election will have new Hampshire at least close to being a win for him if he doesn't win it outright.

Michigan. I got polled for this one. Second poll of the year.

MRG poll of Michigan:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 51%

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job President Trump is doing as president? [IF APPROVE / DISAPPROVE, ASK:] Would that be strongly (approve / disapprove) or just somewhat (approve / disapprove)?

 

Strongly approve……………….25%

Somewhat approve……………..15%

Neither approve or disapprove….7%

Somewhat disapprove…………..7%

Strongly disapprove ……………44%

Don’t know……………………..2%

Look at the "Strong disapprove" category. There's much anger about President Trump.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

New York (Siena):

Favorable 30%
Unfavorable 65%

NYC: 27/67
Suburbs: 32/66
Upstate: 33/63

Job Approval:

Excellent/Good 27%
Fair/Poor 71% (Poor is at 57%)

NYC: 24/73
Suburbs: 30/70
Upstate: 30/70

That is getting to coup detat levels of support in freedom loving NY state. Not good!

[I Won - Get Over It]

In this situation it's best to just look at favorably. The two aren't very different right now.

In the last Sienna poll before election (November 3-4, 2016 http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/486bf15f-bd24-43fa-988f-79ba63efc430.pdf) his favorability among Likely Voters was:
34/63

Now (May 15-18), among Registered Voters:
30/65


So there is a decrease, though LV probably is more D then RV?

[I Won - Get Over It]

SurveyMonkey, May 19-25 compared to May 12-18
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BztOs71zt1WpU0tPNTMtYVJpOWc/view

All Adults:
42 (+2)
56 (-2)

RV:
44 (+3)
55 (-3)

[I Won - Get Over It]

Gallup

41 (+2)
54 (-1)

[Matty]

Trump appears to be heading back to the pre-comey firing dumpster fire levels he was at before

[Ronnie]

Trump appears to be heading back to the pre-comey firing dumpster fire levels he was at before

If Americans didn't have such a short attention span and memory, Republicans would have nothing.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats will have plenty of corruption and other malfeasance to tag upon President Trump in 2020. Negative ads work.   

[I Won - Get Over It]

The more media spin Russia-gate with absolutely no evidence, the more teflon Don becomes. Nice!

Democrats will have plenty of corruption and other malfeasance to tag upon President Trump in 2020. Negative ads work.  

[Virginiá]

And Trump's numbers were pulled down, but it didn't really matter because Clinton's own numbers were terrible and a bad campaign strategy prevented her from squeezing by in the places that mattered.

If anything, it suggests that negative ads can help but only so much if you have a bad candidate.

@I Won - can you reduce the size of your signature's image a little bit so it stops screwing up the page? use [img width=500] or something.

[pbrower2a]

A reasonably-good opponent could take down Trump as Reagan took down Carter or FDR took down Hoover. But even that is overkill.

I look at the approval numbers; they are wholly inadequate for winning re-election even with a spirited and competent campaign.  The connection to Russia might be old stuff by 2020 and ineffective. But there will be more. The Trump administration plans to make big tax cuts for the super-rich; as the financial lords start complaining about deficits and drive interest rates into the stratosphere, President Trump will push for high taxes that hurt everyone but the super-rich. That will shrink the economy. If he does this while wages plummet and welfare vanishes, the economy will go into a tailspin.

An economic meltdown that begins like those starting in 1929 or 2007 will kill his chances for re-election, whether such has gone on for nearly three years (Hoover), a little over a year (the economic meltdown made the election of McCain impossible), or two (something intermediate in political effect).

Donald Trump would be the worst President possible during an economic tailspin because he is even more reactionary than Hoover. He would tell people to suffer for economic elites who have the cure -- a return to the cruelty and inequity of the Gilded Age.

Even the National Enquirer has turned on the President that it hyped.   

[Inmate Trump]

The more media spin Russia-gate with absolutely no evidence, the more teflon Don becomes. Nice!

What kind of evidence would you like?  How many things need to happen before you start seeing them as just endless coincidences?

Just curious.

The FBI is investigating it, which wouldn't happen if there was nothing there.  Do you think these guys just pulled this stuff out of their hats?  The NSA chief just said the connection exists and that he's seen it.  You likely won't ever see the evidence in person yourself, just as you wouldn't for any criminal investigation; you would read about it, or see it on the news, but your eyes will never actually gaze upon it, as with any other crime.  So short of you seeing evidence in person, what would you actually accept as being proof?

[Badger]

The more media spin Russia-gate with absolutely no evidence, the more teflon Don becomes. Nice!

Not sure if you're joking, but you should probably read the thread on this page regarding the NSA report

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 26th)

Approve 41% (-/-)
Disapprove 54% (-/-)

[Crumpets]

I think it's pretty telling that Trump hasn't seen as much as a two-point rebound since last weekend when this scandal felt like it was at its most overwhelming. Maybe something is actually sticking to TeflonDon?