Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[GeorgiaModerate]

I actually don't. I want him to be in office during the midterms, and if he's removed too quickly, the GOP could plausibly say "we had no idea this lunatic was going to be this bad" and there's a non-negligible chance that voters forget all about it by the time of the next election. The GOP needs to reap what it sowed with Trump.

On the contrary, I think impeachment/removal from office could destroy the GOP's majorities for the next 2 or so cycles. No one is going to forget that, and they will all know the GOP participated in removing Trump from office, which fits nicely with Donald's talk about "the swamp" and "the elites." Indies would rush to Democrats and tons of Trump-supporting Republicans would defect or stay home, as I doubt they will be quick to forgive their own party for such backstabbing. Plus, you have to consider how long it would take to boot him out. Even if they started quickly, he could still be in office as late as the end of the year.

And of course, imagine what Trump would be doing when he's out of office ? He'll haunt the Republican Party for years.

That's actually a great point. Ford almost winning in 1976 is what gave me pause, but then again, Ford was a lot more likeable and popular on a personal level than Pence ever is/was.

Something that helped Ford in 1976 was his distance from Nixon.  As an appointed VP, Ford never campaigned with Nixon and was not one of his inner circle before the appointment, so he wasn't tarnished by association with Nixon.  And yes, he was likeable and relatively popular (apart from the pardon) -- and he did still lose.  Pence, although not a complete insider with Trump, has been associated with him since the campaign.  He wouldn't be an outsider to the same degree that Ford was.  This is probably why Pence seems to be keeping a very low profile at present.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I actually don't. I want him to be in office during the midterms, and if he's removed too quickly, the GOP could plausibly say "we had no idea this lunatic was going to be this bad" and there's a non-negligible chance that voters forget all about it by the time of the next election. The GOP needs to reap what it sowed with Trump.

On the contrary, I think impeachment/removal from office could destroy the GOP's majorities for the next 2 or so cycles.

Doubtful, while Nixon hurt the GOP in 1974, by 1976 he'd stopped hurting them and they lost no Senate seats. 76 was generally an election that favored incumbents, no matter the party.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I actually don't. I want him to be in office during the midterms, and if he's removed too quickly, the GOP could plausibly say "we had no idea this lunatic was going to be this bad" and there's a non-negligible chance that voters forget all about it by the time of the next election. The GOP needs to reap what it sowed with Trump.

On the contrary, I think impeachment/removal from office could destroy the GOP's majorities for the next 2 or so cycles.

Doubtful, while Nixon hurt the GOP in 1974, by 1976 he'd stopped hurting them and they lost no Senate seats. 76 was generally an election that favored incumbents, no matter the party.

^^

I'm not sure about that. Nixon wasn't really marked by controversy in 1968 or 1972.

When Trump was nominated in 2016, a lot of people said that it was bad idea and that he was unfit to serve as president both due to a lack in character and a lack in experience. And most Republicans went along with supporting Trump's candidacy anyway. And if Trump eventually blows up, they could face the blame for it.... that back then, they ignored the criticism, the outrage, and the all the early warning signs and went along with supporting him anyway.

[Virginiá]

It's possible, but I really don't think the GOP would get off easy if they removed Trump from office. That is something I would have to see to believe. With Ford, that was a great time for conservatives in general if you put aside Watergate. They were the ascendant ideology at the time. With Clinton's impeachment, you had a case where the public seemed to disagree with impeachment and Clinton was personally popular. Trump seems to have little of that on his side. He's very unpopular and as the Russia stuff progresses, people are not supporting him as much as I think it would take. As for Coolidge, I don't know much about that time. I can't comment.

[Virginiá]

One man by himself cannot doom a Party. Even the GOP came back just two years after Bush left office (2010).

Well hold on - what do we mean by doom? It's reasonable to say I'm overreaching in thinking 2020 would have similar anti-GOP intensity as 2018 (which I think is guaranteed, as the impeachment would be way too close), but I don't think it matters how different Pence is, he's going to pay a penalty, especially since he came into office with Trump. He was on his ticket, and it's not out of the question to think he may even be roped into some shenanigans himself (although personally I'm not betting on it). At least Ford was detached that from the Nixon administration prior to Watergate. I just think the question now is, what kind of penalty? Are people just going to brush aside the past 3 years of Republicans screwing things up and bringing shame to the country? Maybe it won't doom Pence but it certainly gives the Democrat in 2020 a very good opening to attack, at which point I guess it depends on how well they work that angle.

[Pericles]

Trump's approval rating continues to fall in the 538 tracker, it is now at 36.9%.

[Badger]

Get back on topic please.

You geniuses let Krazen and MAGA2020 endlessly troll, the former after bei,g let back after a year because " he'd change", let Stormfront lite posts flourish, and THIS is where you draw the line?

Develop some perspective

Get over yourself.

Badger, with all due respect, you're getting too much of a single-issue regarding Krazen. And I'm saying this as somebody who wouldn't mind banning him altogether.

Maybe, I think he's more Exhibit A as to what absolute jokes the mod squad have (mostly) become in trying to keep this place from being overrun with trolls and Stormfront-lite posters (of which Krazen is both).

[Badger]

I actually don't. I want him to be in office during the midterms, and if he's removed too quickly, the GOP could plausibly say "we had no idea this lunatic was going to be this bad" and there's a non-negligible chance that voters forget all about it by the time of the next election. The GOP needs to reap what it sowed with Trump.

On the contrary, I think impeachment/removal from office could destroy the GOP's majorities for the next 2 or so cycles.

Doubtful, while Nixon hurt the GOP in 1974, by 1976 he'd stopped hurting them and they lost no Senate seats. 76 was generally an election that favored incumbents, no matter the party.

And in 78 the GOP won big.

[Badger]

Get back on topic please.

You geniuses let Krazen and MAGA2020 endlessly troll, the former after bei,g let back after a year because " he'd change", let Stormfront lite posts flourish, and THIS is where you draw the line?

Develop some perspective

Get over yourself.

What does that even mean in relation to this point? You're a great poster, TG, but this sounds pitifully close to a "I know you are but what am I?" level response.

Perhaps because what I'm saying is too accurate to be easily dismissed?

[Daniel909012]

One man by himself cannot doom a Party. Even the GOP came back just two years after Bush left office (2010).

Well hold on - what do we mean by doom? It's reasonable to say I'm overreaching in thinking 2020 would have similar anti-GOP intensity as 2018 (which I think is guaranteed, as the impeachment would be way too close), but I don't think it matters how different Pence is, he's going to pay a penalty, especially since he came into office with Trump. He was on his ticket, and it's not out of the question to think he may even be roped into some shenanigans himself (although personally I'm not betting on it). At least Ford was detached that from the Nixon administration prior to Watergate. I just think the question now is, what kind of penalty? Are people just going to brush aside the past 3 years of Republicans screwing things up and bringing shame to the country? Maybe it won't doom Pence but it certainly gives the Democrat in 2020 a very good opening to attack, at which point I guess it depends on how well they work that angle.

Someone knows a serious forum where it is not full of crazy people who believe that it will be dismissed

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 4th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-3)

[Daniel909012]

Gallup (August 4th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-3)

According to your logic should be 30%?

[The Dowager Mod]

Get back on topic please.

You geniuses let Krazen and MAGA2020 endlessly troll, the former after bei,g let back after a year because " he'd change", let Stormfront lite posts flourish, and THIS is where you draw the line?

Develop some perspective

Get over yourself.

What does that even mean in relation to this point? You're a great poster, TG, but this sounds pitifully close to a "I know you are but what am I?" level response.

Perhaps because what I'm saying is too accurate to be easily dismissed?

I'm one of the few mods who makes an actual effort to do the right thing and you feel the need to attack me, You know how the cave works, If I could ban people I would.

[Virginiá]

Let's check back in another 6 months to see if his trend line continues

I'm not even sure what he is talking about. I didn't say anything other than the raw approval numbers

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (August 4th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-3)

According to your logic should be 30%?

Let's check back in another 6 months to see if his trend line continues

The trend for the past couple of months has been essentially flat, as shown in the graph on the Gallup page.  The day-to-day changes in that period are just the normal variations that should be expected; the MOE on these polls is +/-3%.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Gallup (August 4th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-3)

According to your logic should be 30%?

Let's check back in another 6 months to see if his trend line continues

The trend for the past couple of months has been essentially flat, as shown in the graph on the Gallup page.  The day-to-day changes in that period are just the normal variations that should be expected; the MOE on these polls is +/-3%.

Yeah. On the RCP average, his spread has been within two points of -15% since mid-May. Too early to tell if the recent slump is a real change or just a blip.

I'm hoping it represents more Americans coming to their senses, of course. But I'm not holding my breath. If Trump can stay out of the public eye and shut up for two and a half weeks without anything exploding inside or outside the administration, that will probably benefit his numbers.

Of course, that "hide in a hole and hope nothing breaks" is the best he can probably do is a damning indictment of him and his presidency.

[Badger]

Get back on topic please.

You geniuses let Krazen and MAGA2020 endlessly troll, the former after bei,g let back after a year because " he'd change", let Stormfront lite posts flourish, and THIS is where you draw the line?

Develop some perspective

Get over yourself.

What does that even mean in relation to this point? You're a great poster, TG, but this sounds pitifully close to a "I know you are but what am I?" level response.

Perhaps because what I'm saying is too accurate to be easily dismissed?

I'm one of the few mods who makes an actual effort to do the right thing and you feel the need to attack me, You know how the cave works, If I could ban people I would.

(Sigh) fair enough t g. Mia culpa. Sincerely. I should know better than to go after one of the mods whom I know are among the good guys. I was just frustrated and took it out on exactly the wrong target.

Again, my apologies. Keep on keeping on.

[The Dowager Mod]

Get back on topic please.

You geniuses let Krazen and MAGA2020 endlessly troll, the former after bei,g let back after a year because " he'd change", let Stormfront lite posts flourish, and THIS is where you draw the line?

Develop some perspective

Get over yourself.

What does that even mean in relation to this point? You're a great poster, TG, but this sounds pitifully close to a "I know you are but what am I?" level response.

Perhaps because what I'm saying is too accurate to be easily dismissed?

I'm one of the few mods who makes an actual effort to do the right thing and you feel the need to attack me, You know how the cave works, If I could ban people I would.

(Sigh) fair enough t g. Mia culpa. Sincerely. I should know better than to go after one of the mods whom I know are among the good guys. I was just frustrated and took it out on exactly the wrong target.

Again, my apologies. Keep on keeping on.

No worries.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Firehouse Strategies (R), 2901 LV in swing states (FL, OH, PA, WI).  Changes are from a similar poll in April.

Strongly Favorable 28.6 (-6.7)
Somewhat Favorable 13.3 (+4.1)
Somewhat Unfavorable 7.4 (+0.9)
Strongly Unfavorable 43.6 (+7.6)

Total Favorable 41.9 (-2.6)
Total Unfavorable 51.0 (+8.5)

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[Rookie Yinzer]

Gallup (August 4th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-3)

According to your logic should be 30%?

Let's check back in another 6 months to see if his trend line continues

The trend for the past couple of months has been essentially flat, as shown in the graph on the Gallup page.  The day-to-day changes in that period are just the normal variations that should be expected; the MOE on these polls is +/-3%.

Trump has been stagnant for weeks at a time, suffers a big drop, stabilizes for three weeks, then drops. I see no reason to think that will suddenly change. How many 70 year old people change their behavior?

Fwiw, here's Gallup's graph:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

To the bolded: I agree and also Donald Trump is mentally ill. That simply cannot be fixed without extensive therapy and treatment. Neither of which he will be pursuing anytime soon.

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies (R), 2901 LV in swing states (FL, OH, PA, WI).  Changes are from a similar poll in April.

Strongly Favorable 28.6 (-6.7)
Somewhat Favorable 13.3 (+4.1)
Somewhat Unfavorable 7.4 (+0.9)
Strongly Unfavorable 43.6 (+7.6)

Total Favorable 41.9 (-2.6)
Total Unfavorable 51.0 (+8.5)

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I can't use this poll in my map. This is a composite between states and not within a state.  Composite data between polls within states, as I have for the Gallup data,  offer the possibility of averaging the data by time, so data in a period from January to July might average as polls from April. The Gallup data has allowed me to fill in spaces with what are in effect April polls if I have nothing newer. I want polls of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and not some mixture of them. For Ohio I have only the Gallup polling data that suggests on the average that approval ratings for President Trump were just slightly underwater in a time that I would average as April. Knowing how the trend has gone nationwide I might expect something like 47-48 to have become 44-51 or so, reflecting a crash in the President's approval rating  that would have repercussions in Ohio.

But my map does not reflect my expectations of what a new poll would say if offered. My map is of polling, and from that one might draw one's own conclusions.  If I were to guess how Donald Trump would do against 'Generic Democrat' in 2020, then I might show a map of such expectations   and identify it as such. I have no intention of showing such a map. Of course we can reasonably expect that since 1968, every incumbent President has sought re-election, we can reasonably expect Donald Trump to seek re-election even if his administration has proved a failure.  70+ in age and with some unhealthy habits (obesity, lack of exercise, poor diet) is not promising. There are people at age 70 that I have more expectation of reaching 80 than I have of some people aged 40 reaching 50 due solely to poor habits of health and good habits. But if something should happen to President Trump, then I would be reasonably confident in predicting that President Pence would run for re-election, in which case these polls would be irrelevant. We would be looking at polls of approval and disapproval.

Note also that I have quit using favorability polls, as I no longer need them. 

So what is useful from this poll? It shows that in three months, a trend in four states in which he needs three of the four (I will lose Pennsylvania and Michigan, making the three other states in this polling composite must-win states for the President.   

Although "Incumbent President" reliably runs for President, "Generic Democrat" and "Generic Republican" are highly active as constructs three years before a Presidential, Senatorial, or Gubernatorial election  -- but go into hibernation as personalities become important.  I am so satisfied with the idea that in 2020 that the incumbent Republican President will be running for re-election even if something happens to President Trump. That would mean that Mike  Pence runs for re-election.

.....

It is easy for me to say that unless President Trump finds ways in which to recover credibility he will go down to defeat. He got elected with less than a plurality of the popular vote (suggesting a statistical freak that one cannot expect to be relevant in 2020), which implies that he will need to develop new sources of political support just to be re-elected.  He has lost ground, and he has done nothing to suggest that he has gained ground. Either subsequent polls or the composite data from Gallup indicate that he is doing nothing that indicates a strong chance of winning bigger in 2020. His closest wins of 2016 (Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire) are swinging against him; a President faring better could expect those states to swing in his favor. Two of his three barest wins (Michigan and Pennsylvania) show evidence of swinging hard against him. 

Yes, a President  can win re-election if he won decisively one year and loses a little ground in the next election. But Barack Obama decisively lost a state that he won under flukish circumstances that weren't going to be repeated (a combination of high oil prices, tight credit, and high interest rates with an economy in apparent free-fall in 2008 allowed Obama to win Indiana, and even if those all got corrected those would work to the benefit of the Republicans).  So he gained nothing from 2008 to 2012 and lost sixteen more electoral votes from North Carolina and the Second Congressional District of Nebraska. He would have still been re-elected had he lost Florida and its 29 electoral votes. That would have still allowed President Obama to win re-election with 303 electoral votes.

But President Trump begins with about the same number of electoral votes as if he had won in a scenario in which President Obama had done as well in 2012 except in Florida. His position in Michigan and Pennsylvania is even worse than that of Obama between 2008 and 2012 in Indiana -- promises made and promises betrayed. He has no wiggle room. No incumbent President has been held in such contempt so early. If you are thinking of Hoover... he was doing fine until the Stock Market Crash of 1929, and it took a while for Americans to realize how bad the situation was and even more to start casting blame on the President.       

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 5th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

[PragmaticPopulist]

Gallup (August 5th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

Either his approval has improved slightly, or the Quinnipiac poll from last week was an outlier. I think the safest place to put his approval right now is in the mid-to-high 30s.

[Kamala]

Gallup (August 5th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

Either his approval has improved slightly, or the Quinnipiac poll from last week was an outlier. I think the safest place to put his approval right now is in the mid-to-high 30s.

I expect his approval to go up, considering he's on vacation, ergo, not creating more scandals or having more policy failures. Once he and congress are back to work, I expect it fall back down.

[Person Man]

Gallup (August 5th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

Either his approval has improved slightly, or the Quinnipiac poll from last week was an outlier. I think the safest place to put his approval right now is in the mid-to-high 30s.

I expect his approval to go up, considering he's on vacation, ergo, not creating more scandals or having more policy failures. Once he and congress are back to work, I expect it fall back down.

But any time is Mueller Time.