Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Intell]

I think it will be big among the "remember when" crowd and huge in the South. We may end up with a revivalist "The South Will Rise Again" crowd, supported by many more people. Already it has been propped up in Central and SW VA (Confederate flags popping up all over the place) due to the us vs. them angle and lack of economic opportunity.

I don't know about "may"...it's pretty clear that this crowd exists, and in quite large numbers.

Also, about your last sentence regarding racism and the lack of economic opportunity, you may want to read this

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I just want to put this out here to challenge the notion that improving peoples' economic conditions will help decrease racism.

Yup. I never believed that there was much of a correlation. The whole idea that people vote for right wing populists (not just Trump, but all over the world) due to economic anxiety is basically bull. There just happens to be a correlation between low education and adherence to right wing populist ideas, that is unrelated to actual income levels.

I am highly questioning this data, from the fact that LYNCHINGS did increase in times economic distress and high cotton prices.

Far-Right wing parties, increase in times of economic uncertainty, that is also a confirmed political trend, whether that relates to hate crimes is a different question, so yes, having better economic conditions, does help quell racism.

But anything for clintonites to smear the non-college educated white population, am I right?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think it will be big among the "remember when" crowd and huge in the South. We may end up with a revivalist "The South Will Rise Again" crowd, supported by many more people. Already it has been propped up in Central and SW VA (Confederate flags popping up all over the place) due to the us vs. them angle and lack of economic opportunity.

I don't know about "may"...it's pretty clear that this crowd exists, and in quite large numbers.

Also, about your last sentence regarding racism and the lack of economic opportunity, you may want to read this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I just want to put this out here to challenge the notion that improving peoples' economic conditions will help decrease racism.

Yup. I never believed that there was much of a correlation. The whole idea that people vote for right wing populists (not just Trump, but all over the world) due to economic anxiety is basically bull. There just happens to be a correlation between low education and adherence to right wing populist ideas, that is unrelated to actual income levels.

I am highly questioning this data, from the fact that LYNCHINGS did increase in times economic distress and high cotton prices.

Far-Right wing parties, increase in times of economic uncertainty, that is also a confirmed political trend, whether that relates to hate crimes is a different question, so yes, having better economic conditions, does help quell racism.

But anything for clintonites to smear the non-college educated white population, am I right?

How is it smearing though? It's not like "oh you killed a black person because you are upset over a lack of job opportunities" is some justifiable excuse

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI, Aug 2-8, 2024 adults (pre-Charlottesville)

Favorable 38%
Unfavorable 56%

40% favor impeachment (+10 from February)

[BlueSwan]

Rasmussen, Aug 16:

Approve 40 (25 strongly)
Disapprove 58 (48 strongly)

On Friday he was at 45/53, so that's a net change of -10.

Rasmussen, August 17, 2017

Approve 40% (24% strongly)
Disapprove 59% (49% strongly)

Also...

Wow. All the congressional leaders have even worse approval ratings than Trump. Crazy.

I can sort of understand the low approval for Pelosi and McConnell given that they have been objects of hate for the opposing party for years and years (and McConnell is evil incarnated, of course). But what the hell have Paul Ryan and Chuck Schumer done to deserve this?

Personally, I do hate McConnell passionately, but I don't have strong feelings towards Paul Ryan either way. And I like Pelosi and Schumer quite a lot.

[Person Man]

Rasmussen, Aug 16:

Approve 40 (25 strongly)
Disapprove 58 (48 strongly)

On Friday he was at 45/53, so that's a net change of -10.

Rasmussen, August 17, 2017

Approve 40% (24% strongly)
Disapprove 59% (49% strongly)

Also...

Wow. All the congressional leaders have even worse approval ratings than Trump. Crazy.

I can sort of understand the low approval for Pelosi and McConnell given that they have been objects of hate for the opposing party for years and years (and McConnell is evil incarnated, of course). But what the hell have Paul Ryan and Chuck Schumer done to deserve this?

Personally, I do hate McConnell passionately, but I don't have strong feelings towards Paul Ryan either way. And I like Pelosi and Schumer quite a lot.

Schumer is actually pretty popular for a congessional leader. Pelosi is more popular than Mitch or Paul.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Rasmussen, Aug 16:

Approve 40 (25 strongly)
Disapprove 58 (48 strongly)

On Friday he was at 45/53, so that's a net change of -10.

Rasmussen, August 17, 2017

Approve 40% (24% strongly)
Disapprove 59% (49% strongly)

Also...

Wow. All the congressional leaders have even worse approval ratings than Trump. Crazy.

I can sort of understand the low approval for Pelosi and McConnell given that they have been objects of hate for the opposing party for years and years (and McConnell is evil incarnated, of course). But what the hell have Paul Ryan and Chuck Schumer done to deserve this?

Personally, I do hate McConnell passionately, but I don't have strong feelings towards Paul Ryan either way. And I like Pelosi and Schumer quite a lot.

Schumer is actually pretty popular for a congessional leader. Pelosi is more popular than Mitch or Paul.

Ryan's probably unpopular because of health care and that Democrats see him as enabling Trump, and Republicans don't like him because they think he wasn't strong enough in his support for Trump.

But yeah, congressional leaders are generally the bogeymen for the opposing side, so they're naturally pretty unpopular. Schumer might be less unpopular because he's relatively new to the national scene, and he hasn't (yet) been a majority leader.

[Tintrlvr]

Rasmussen, Aug 16:

Approve 40 (25 strongly)
Disapprove 58 (48 strongly)

On Friday he was at 45/53, so that's a net change of -10.

Rasmussen, August 17, 2017

Approve 40% (24% strongly)
Disapprove 59% (49% strongly)

Also...

Wow. All the congressional leaders have even worse approval ratings than Trump. Crazy.

I can sort of understand the low approval for Pelosi and McConnell given that they have been objects of hate for the opposing party for years and years (and McConnell is evil incarnated, of course). But what the hell have Paul Ryan and Chuck Schumer done to deserve this?

Personally, I do hate McConnell passionately, but I don't have strong feelings towards Paul Ryan either way. And I like Pelosi and Schumer quite a lot.

Not quite. Pelosi is on the same level as Trump (lower approval but also lower disapproval - just lower name recognition, actually net one point better than Trump (-18 vs. -19 for Trump)), and Schumer is doing much better than Trump on net. Ryan and McConnell doing worse than Trump isn't that big of a surprise, given that it's hard to see many/any Democrats opposing Trump but supporting them, yet there are a lot of archconservatives who think Ryan and McConnell aren't doing enough to implement Trump's agenda.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Aug 9-15, 1361 RV (change from Aug 2)

Approve 39 (+6)
Disapprove 57 (-4)

[BlueSwan]

Quinnipiac, Aug 9-15, 1361 RV (change from Aug 2)

Approve 39 (+6)
Disapprove 57 (-4)

Oh dear.

[Dr. Arch]

Quinnipiac, Aug 9-15, 1361 RV (change from Aug 2)

Approve 39 (+6)
Disapprove 57 (-4)

Oh dear.

Give it time. Polls always lag behind public opinion/recent event effects.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Aug 9-15, 1361 RV (change from Aug 2)

Approve 39 (+6)
Disapprove 57 (-4)

Oh dear.

Well, Q has been somewhat bouncy.  The poll before Aug 2 (June 29) was 40/55; the one before that (June 7) was 34/57. 

Here's the whole list since the inauguration:

Aug 17, 2017 39 57 4
Aug 02, 2017 33 61 5
Jun 29, 2017 40 55 5
Jun 07, 2017 34 57 9
May 24, 2017 37 55 7
May 10, 2017 36 58 6
Apr 19, 2017 40 56 4
Apr 04, 2017 35 57 8
Mar 22, 2017 37 56 7
Mar 07, 2017 41 52 7
Feb 22, 2017 38 55 7
Feb 07, 2017 42 51 7
Jan 26, 2017 36 44 19

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump at 37/56. Told y'all that Trump could be overtly racist and it wouldn't make his matters worse than they already are.

It's 37/57.

And since this poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, the sample could include a bump for Trump due to his "good" speech on Monday where he had condemned White supremacism. While his meltdown on Tuesday is also partially included here, further ramifications like the forced dissolvement of his presidential business councils are probably not at this point.

[BudgieForce]

Quinnipiac, Aug 9-15, 1361 RV (change from Aug 2)

Approve 39 (+6)
Disapprove 57 (-4)

Oh dear.

Their last poll was an outlier, this is more in line with other pollsters.

[HisGrace]

Trump at 37/56. Told y'all that Trump could be overtly racist and it wouldn't make his matters worse than they already are.

It's 37/57.

And since this poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, the sample could include a bump for Trump due to his "good" speech on Monday where he had condemned White supremacism. While his meltdown on Tuesday is also partially included here, further ramifications like the forced dissolvement of his presidential business councils are probably not at this point.

We'll see what happens next week when you have polls with the entire sample post-Tuesday. Tuesday is what could really hurt him, not the stuff over the weekend.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump at 37/56. Told y'all that Trump could be overtly racist and it wouldn't make his matters worse than they already are.

It's 37/57.

And since this poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, the sample could include a bump for Trump due to his "good" speech on Monday where he had condemned White supremacism. While his meltdown on Tuesday is also partially included here, further ramifications like the forced dissolvement of his presidential business councils are probably not at this point.

We'll see what happens next week when you have polls with the entire sample post-Tuesday. Tuesday is what could really hurt him, not the stuff over the weekend.

The first Gallup tracking poll conducted completely after the Tuesday press conference will be released on Saturday, but experience tells us that an effect - if there's an effect - could already be noticable in tomorrow's poll.

[BlueSwan]

Are anybody meeting people who thought that what Trump did over the weekend was fine, but then suddenly turned after tuesday? I doubt that very many of those people exist, unfortunately.

[HisGrace]

Are anybody meeting people who thought that what Trump did over the weekend was fine, but then suddenly turned after tuesday? I doubt that very many of those people exist, unfortunately.

I could see it. Maybe not finding it "fine" but they still approved of him generally but then switched to unsure or disapproved after Tuesday. The big difference is that he didn't actually say anything positive about white supremacists over the weekend. His Tuesday statements also got a lot more coverage.

[Virginiá]

Trump at 37/56 in Gallup. Told y'all that Trump could be overtly racist and it wouldn't make his numbers worse than they already are. He could probably go to a Klan rally and 30% of Americans would find a way to say "well, maybe he has a point."

I'm not really convinced this is the kind of scandal that would impact his current approving supporters. I mean this isn't really a new thing for him, but it's particularly brazen and stupid. Trump is getting closer and closer to his core base of supporters, which also means we are needing more and more scandals that produce tangible effects on their lives to drive the support away. Overt friendliness towards neo nazis I don't think is applicable in that sense.

In other words, if he was at 40% - 42%, I could see this getting him to 36% - 38%, but... he's already there

[Tekken_Guy]

Quinnipiac, Aug 9-15, 1361 RV (change from Aug 2)

Approve 39 (+6)
Disapprove 57 (-4)

I think that was more of a reaction to North Korea than Charlottesville.  The Tuesday press conference was the last day of polling.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Aug 9-15, 1361 RV (change from Aug 2)

Approve 39 (+6)
Disapprove 57 (-4)

Maybe he told some people exactly what they wanted to believe.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

More likely the earlier Quinnipac poll was an outlier.

[HisGrace]

Trump at 37/56 in Gallup. Told y'all that Trump could be overtly racist and it wouldn't make his numbers worse than they already are. He could probably go to a Klan rally and 30% of Americans would find a way to say "well, maybe he has a point."

I'm not really convinced this is the kind of scandal that would impact his current approving supporters. I mean this isn't really a new thing for him, but it's particularly brazen and stupid. Trump is getting closer and closer to his core base of supporters, which also means we are needing more and more scandals that produce tangible effects on their lives to drive the support away. Overt friendliness towards neo nazis I don't think is applicable in that sense.

In other words, if he was at 40% - 42%, I could see this getting him to 36% - 38%, but... he's already there

Oh, I agree, and I think I expressed basically the same point in a lesser way. I certainly think his support CAN definitely drop a lot lower than it is now, but it's gonna have to be him actually negatively affecting these people, or people they know, to do it. Like healthcare. Or war. Or the economy shedding jobs.

But he can still get away with saying n***** though and it wouldn't shake his core base. They'd just find a way to justify it or simply tune it out because it doesn't affect them.

"But Jay-Z says it all the time!!!"

"But black people call white people cracker sometimes!!!!"

"You're just a PC cuck!!!!"

[Tekken_Guy]

If his approval stays still, it doesn't mean his supporters are racist. It means they're unfazed by the media coverage of him. Democrats see Trump defending white nationalists, white nationalists see Trump defending the counter protesters, but the right sees a man who condemned both sides.

[Person Man]

If his approval stays still, it doesn't mean his supporters are racist. It means they're unfazed by the media coverage of him. Democrats see Trump defending white nationalists, white nationalists see Trump defending the counter protesters, but the right sees a man who condemned both sides.

equally. Because just veing to the center of the demonstrators is now "center right".

[Inmate Trump]

If his approval stays still, it doesn't mean his supporters are racist. It means they're unfazed by the media coverage of him. Democrats see Trump defending white nationalists, white nationalists see Trump defending the counter protesters, but the right sees a man who condemned both sides.

C'mon.  Unless you're already a white nationalist, there is no way to not be fazed by all of this, and Trump's words regarding all of it.