Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Matty]

So far, there hasn't been anything but statistical noise with the harvey episode.

I wonder if this is a case of people thinking the event should be independent of political judgement, or people taking a "wait and see" approach.

[pbrower2a]

So far, there hasn't been anything but statistical noise with the harvey episode.

I wonder if this is a case of people thinking the event should be independent of political judgement, or people taking a "wait and see" approach.

It will be a while before people can sort out what is going on. The rebuilding process will be delayed until the water levels go down enough to allow reconstruction.

Texas seems to have responded better to Harvey than Louisiana did to Katrina. Whether credit goes to the President Trump or to Texas officials is yet to be shown. you can watch for disputes between statewide Republicans and locally-elected Democrats.

It is bad form to brag about handling a disaster well until the disaster is over.

Maybe we will see another poll by the Texas Tribune.

[pbrower2a]

Trump in FL:

Approve 37
Disapprove 47
https://business.fau.edu/images/business/economics/departments-economics-pages/business-economics-polling-initiative/bepi-polls/files/2017-08-28_BEPI_Results_with_Toplines.pdf

http://wvmetronews.com/2017/08/31/justice-trump-capito-and-manchin-metronews-west-virginia-poll-evaluates-approval/

West Virginia approval ratings:

Trump 48/39
Manchin 51/34
Capito 40/38
Justice 34/44 (lol)  

Great poll! /s

Huge change in a state that gets polled rarely. If you are a partisan Democrat who dreams of West Virginia reverting to the political orientation that it had in the 1990s... here is a portent. President Trump is still above water, but much less than where he has been.

Outlier? Just watch for another poll. People go from approval to 'undecided' to 'disapproval', or vice-versa. This looks li9ke 'vice-versa'.

Party-switching Governor Justice may have blundered. He had no indication of the switch being trouble. This said, President Trump had more room for a fall in approval ratings in West Virginia than in neighboring Pennsylvania, let alone Virginia or Maryland.

Surprisingly, I have no polling on Ohio other than the Gallup composite from January to July.

Florida. I am going to have to take the approval rating literally but keep the old disapproval rating. 37% approval for a Republican President is simply freakish.

In both Florida and West Virginia, approval may be going from positive to undecided. Polls are like stills in movies, showing only a moment.

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

[Yank2133]

Those WV numbers for Trump are awful.

[KingSweden]

So far, there hasn't been anything but statistical noise with the harvey episode.

I wonder if this is a case of people thinking the event should be independent of political judgement, or people taking a "wait and see" approach.

It will be a while before people can sort out what is going on. The rebuilding process will be delayed until the water levels go down enough to allow reconstruction.

Texas seems to have responded better to Harvey than Louisiana did to Katrina. Whether credit goes to the President Trump or to Texas officials is yet to be shown. you can watch for disputes between statewide Republicans and locally-elected Democrats.

It is bad form to brag about handling a disaster well until the disaster is over.

Maybe we will see another poll by the Texas Tribune.

I'd give a lot of the credit to the state and local authorities in Texas

[pbrower2a]

So far, there hasn't been anything but statistical noise with the harvey episode.

I wonder if this is a case of people thinking the event should be independent of political judgement, or people taking a "wait and see" approach.

It will be a while before people can sort out what is going on. The rebuilding process will be delayed until the water levels go down enough to allow reconstruction.

Texas seems to have responded better to Harvey than Louisiana did to Katrina. Whether credit goes to the President Trump or to Texas officials is yet to be shown. you can watch for disputes between statewide Republicans and locally-elected Democrats.

It is bad form to brag about handling a disaster well until the disaster is over.

Maybe we will see another poll by the Texas Tribune.

I'd give a lot of the credit to the state and local authorities in Texas

What I expect. Texas has a political culture very different from that of any state bordering it or nearly bordering it.

I obviously see no post-Harvey polling in Texas, and I generally do not predict trends. I see nothing that President Trump that can cause his  approval to rise.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Those WV numbers for Trump are awful.

Half the state didn't even vote last election

Trump technically won something like 35% of the voting population

According to Wikipedia, the turnout for West Virginia was 59%.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Those WV numbers for Trump are awful.

Half the state didn't even vote last election

Trump technically won something like 35% of the voting population

According to Wikipedia, the turnout for West Virginia was 59%.

That would have been 59% of the registered voters, not of the voting age population which includes those not registered for whatever reason.

[pbrower2a]

Those WV numbers for Trump are awful.

There are possible conclusions:

1. that the collapse in Trump support is striking even states that have been strong R in Presidential elections in recent years.

2. that West Virginia is reverting to political tendencies of the 1990s and earlier. One measure of partisanship of a state is that it can vote for someone who loses in a landslide. West Virginia is the only state to have voted for someone who lost 350 or more electoral votes for a Democrat (Dukakis in 1988) and for a Republican (McCain in 2008) in the last thirty years.

3. that this poll is simply a statistical outlier and wrong

Any of the three is possible. Another poll might confirm the first or the third. The second? Watch elections.

West Virginia Democrats came to depend upon coal miners for their votes when the United Mine Workers was a powerful institution while underfunding roads, public health, and education that  would prove necessary when the coal seams were worked out. Then the mine owners bought the system -- and kept underfunding roads, education, and public health. Whichever Party so operated, it would hurt West Virginia residents and in the first case led to political failure.

This time? The third and first are opposite stances.

[BlueSwan]

http://wvmetronews.com/2017/08/31/justice-trump-capito-and-manchin-metronews-west-virginia-poll-evaluates-approval/

West Virginia approval ratings:

Trump 48/39
Manchin 51/34
Capito 40/38
Justice 34/44 (lol)  

Trump below 50 in a state that is crawling with deplorables. Amazing.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys, that poll of WV is garbage: please don't take it seriously. The only metric anybody should have any credence in is the fact that Manchin has likely almost wrapped up his re-election.

Give all the undecideds/others to the GOP in each contest and it might be somewhat accurate; Trump and Capito are probably around 60% in WV, and Justice is probably around 55%.

[windjammer]

Guys, that poll of WV is garbage: please don't take it seriously. The only metric anybody should have any credence in is the fact that Manchin has likely almost wrapped up his re-election.

Give all the undecideds/others to the GOP in each contest and it might be somewhat accurate; Trump and Capito are probably around 60% in WV, and Justice is probably around 55%.

"Wrapped up his election"
What does that mean?

[pbrower2a]

The good news: I found eleven state polls of approval, some of states that rarely get polled and one that, to my recent consternation, had not ever been polled since Election Day.



The bad news: it's by the much-maligned pollster Zogby.

The reports (approval- disapproval)

FL 45-52
IN 48-48 (first poll!)
KY 52-44
MI 38-57
MO 46-40 (first poll!)
MT 49-46
ND 51-44 (first poll!)
OH 45-52 (the big prize in polling if valid)
PA 40-55
WI 40-57
WV 48-48

President Trump won every one of these states in 2016. Disapproval ratings of 52 or higher in states with 93 electoral votes suggest big trouble for any re-election bid in states that have 93 electoral votes. Add to this, should Indiana be at all close... a Republican is invariably winning the state by 10% or more if he is winning nationally.

The graphic is hard to read. and I hope that I read these right.

Polling is consistent with what I have seen for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, so if the polling uses the same methodology for the other states, then this polling could well be OK.

Here are some matchups -- Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren:



In these matchups, Warren picks up all states in which Trump disapproval is 52 or higher... and Missouri. In view of polls of Arizona and Iowa in which President Trump has a disapproval rating of 52 or higher, I can see her beating Trump almost as severely as Obama beat McCain. She is within 6% of Trump in Indiana, and no Republicans wins nationwide while winning Indiana in the single figures.

I have not been paying attention to individual matchups because there is no obvious front-runner among Democrats for the nomination in 2020... but this one is illustrative.

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

[Coraxion]

Great poll!

[GeorgiaModerate]

What were the field dates of the Zogby polls?

[Wells]

Zogby had Clinton winning Kansas (by a decent margin too) at one point in the election. Trump won it by 20%. It's junk. Get those polls off the map.

[BlueSwan]

Too bad that Zogby is a junk level pollster. I was liking those results.

[emailking]

Zogby had Clinton winning Kansas (by a decent margin too) at one point in the election. Trump won it by 20%. It's junk. Get those polls off the map.

That's your argument for why they're junk? At one point in the 2012 election, PPP had Obama winning Connecticut by 2. He won it by 17. Is PPP junk too?

[pbrower2a]

August 17-23 for the statewide Zogby polls.

The polls of Michigan, Pennsyolvania, and Wisconsin are clos to the results of the Marist polls of those states.

It's an interactive poll... and in 2012, interactive polls proved better than average.

[adrac]

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

Aren't some of your shades of pink backwards here? IA, FL, and OH should be redder than NC and GA right?

[pbrower2a]

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

Aren't some of your shades of pink backwards here? IA, FL, and OH should be redder than NC and GA right?

I may have used intensities of "2" and "3" for pink. I hope to correct that on my next map.

[The Other Castro]

Gallup:
Approve - 34 (0)
Disapprove - 61 (+1)

Now ties the record all time low approval and all time high disapproval for Trump.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gallup:
Approve - 34 (0)
Disapprove - 61 (+1)

Now ties the record all time low approval and all time high disapproval for Trump.

Is this the biggest difference so far (27 points) between approval and disapproval?

[Dr. Arch]

Gallup:
Approve - 34 (0)
Disapprove - 61 (+1)

Now ties the record all time low approval and all time high disapproval for Trump.

Woo!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup:
Approve - 34 (0)
Disapprove - 61 (+1)

Now ties the record all time low approval and all time high disapproval for Trump.

Is this the biggest difference so far (27 points) between approval and disapproval?

It equals the biggest difference (identical numbers on August 13).