Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rassy being rassy

Djt randomly pops to 45% again for no apparent reason

Americans like Trump working with Democrats? Who would've guessed bipartisanship does wonders for one's poll numbers

The deal was just announced, when? Yesterday. Rasmussen operates on a 3 day roll and the pollster fluctuates on a dizzying basis.

[BlueSwan]

6% of Trump voters regretting their choice is huge. If his national vote share drops from 46% to 43% (what that would indicate), well, that's the whole ball game right there.

Not really. They didn't ask how many Clinton voters regretted voting for her. It might very well be in the same ballpark. Some proportion of the public shift their votes from election to election, that's why we even have Obama/Trump voters. In that sense, and particularly taking into account how horrible the Trump presidency is, 6% is a really small number.

[Badger]

EPIC/MRI, Michigan:

Job performance -- negative, 62%.

Michiganders questioning  the mental stability of the President. -- 43% unstable, 45% stable

More effective: Obama 56%, Trump 32%

Investigations against him a "witch-hunt" -- agree 34%, disagree 55% (disagreement is hostile to the President's credibility)

Worry about the President handling North Korea -- 38% very worried, 15% somewhat worried   

Overall

36% favorable, 58% unfavorable


I do not use favorability polls anymore, so this will not appear on the map. But there is new data to show some flavor to the perception of the President.

http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/09/06/michigan-poll-president-trump-mental-health/634859001/

Perhaps my favorite part of this poll is the guy in charge of administering it is named Bernie Porn.

[BlueSwan]

EPIC/MRI, Michigan:

Job performance -- negative, 62%.

Michiganders questioning  the mental stability of the President. -- 43% unstable, 45% stable

More effective: Obama 56%, Trump 32%

Investigations against him a "witch-hunt" -- agree 34%, disagree 55% (disagreement is hostile to the President's credibility)

Worry about the President handling North Korea -- 38% very worried, 15% somewhat worried   

Overall

36% favorable, 58% unfavorable


I do not use favorability polls anymore, so this will not appear on the map. But there is new data to show some flavor to the perception of the President.

http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/09/06/michigan-poll-president-trump-mental-health/634859001/

Perhaps my favorite part of this poll is the guy in charge of administering it is named Bernie Porn.

Best name in polling, LOL!

Man, the ridicule that anybody from that family must endure. I hope he doesn't name his daughter Lolita or Granny or something creepy like that.

[Shadows]

Trump is at 36% in the new NBC poll while Hillary is at 30%. So there is a chance that Trump faces a deeply unpopular Dem candidate in 2020 (like Hillary) & wins.

It is possible for a Dem candidate to have worse approvals than Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump is at 36% in the new NBC poll while Hillary is at 30%. So there is a chance that Trump faces a deeply unpopular Dem candidate in 2020 (like Hillary) & wins.

It is possible for a Dem candidate to have worse approvals than Trump.

What plausible D candidate other than Hillary would be that unpopular?

[BudgieForce]

Trump is at 36% in the new NBC poll while Hillary is at 30%. So there is a chance that Trump faces a deeply unpopular Dem candidate in 2020 (like Hillary) & wins.

It is possible for a Dem candidate to have worse approvals than Trump.

Thats slightly misleading. While Hillary's approval rating is at 30%, her neutral rating is at 17%. Also, Sander's +14, while great, is down quite abit from his +32 a year ago. 

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/TODAY/z_Creative/17312%20NBCWSJ%202017%20Social%20Trends%20Poll%20(9-6-17%20Release).pdf

[Dr. Arch]

Trump is at 36% in the new NBC poll while Hillary is at 30%. So there is a chance that Trump faces a deeply unpopular Dem candidate in 2020 (like Hillary) & wins.

It is possible for a Dem candidate to have worse approvals than Trump.

Nobody outside of Hillary or Pelosi would fall in that category. Both of them have been slandered for decades.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump is at 36% in the new NBC poll while Hillary is at 30%. So there is a chance that Trump faces a deeply unpopular Dem candidate in 2020 (like Hillary) & wins.

It is possible for a Dem candidate to have worse approvals than Trump.

I can't seem to come up with any democrat who would be that unpopular.

[pbrower2a]

I can understand her bitterness. With this she cannot win the 2020 nomination for President by the Democratic Party. The Democrats need a nominee who can exude confidence and competence simultaneously. We may be in some very rough times.

I am going to make a prediction on the economy: Hurricanes Harvey and Irma will bring about stagflation. 

[Gass3268]

Survey Monkey State by State Approval

Among 163,671 adults interviewed June 1-August 31, 2017. In map form:

[Kamala]

Survey Monkey State by State Approval

Among 163,671 adults interviewed June 1-August 31, 2017. In map form:

Alaska is 44 approve - 56 disapprove. I think there's an error on your map.

[BlueSwan]

Survey Monkey State by State Approval

Among 163,671 adults interviewed June 1-August 31, 2017. In map form:

Alaska should be red!

[Gass3268]

Fixed Alaska

[Virginiá]

Gallup (September 7th)

Approve 36% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

[Matty]

Man, every day I open this this thread intrigued as to whether there is any movement up or down for DJT, and the last 2 weeks have been boring. Gallup is just so stable right now.

[KingSweden]

Man, every day I open this this thread intrigued as to whether there is any movement up or down for DJT, and the last 2 weeks have been boring. Gallup is just so stable right now.

It's definitely calcified

[pbrower2a]

Based on Survey Monkey's polls from June 1 through August 31. Figure an average of July 15  for any updates from this data with polls from late July, August, and (so far) early September.

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (207 -- deep red)
57% to 59% (56)
55%  (48) TIPPING POINT/ZONE
51% to 54% (141)
46% to 49% (44)
45% (22)
42% or less (23)

[pbrower2a]

So -- am I completely satisfied with this map? Of course not, as the data is obsolete. The average age of the polling, I estimate,  is now almost two months old. But we do have a pollster with all fifty states and the District of Columbia. All that is missing is the individual districts of Maine and Nebraska. But something whose average age is from July 15 is still newer than much that I have. This polling data largely supplants much of the old Gallup polling as a composite.

But look what we have. We have the same pollster and presumably the same methodology. I may find the '55' disapproval for North Carolina and the '54' disapproval for Georgia hard to believe, let alone disapprovals in the low 50s in Kansas and Nebraska.

But this is what we have, and in some cases the polling here supplants the Gallup data.

I look at all the states with a number of 60 or higher, and two of those are states that he barely lost in 2016. He has obviously not been building a constituency in those states. That is 207 electoral votes that he could lose by 20% or more. Then come 36 more electoral votes, sixteen of them from a state that he won (Michigan) in which his disapproval is 57% or 59%. That is 243 electoral votes reasonably out of reach.

 Before I go further, let me make a conjecture:   that an incumbent President whose disapproval rating ever goes to 55% or higher does not win that state in a subsequent election. I would like to see the archives on approval ratings by state involving Dubya between 2001 and 2004 and Obama between 2009 and 2012. Approval ratings can rise and fall, but disapproval looks extremely sticky downward. In theory an incumbent can win with a disapproval rating of 55% or so against an extremely-weak challenger, as either an  incompetent campaigner or with a scandal looming over him.  But unless the Democrats are so rash as to nominate Bob Menendez, then I can't see that happening. The data might reinforce or refute my conjecture

I don't know whether Dubya or Obama is an ideal analogue to President Trump... you may find the data before me and you will be welcome to use it. You may find it hard to believe that the President's approval rating is at 55% in Utah or North Carolina... but there's little reason for Trump doing much better in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin than in Michigan.

 

[Virginiá]

Approval ratings can rise and fall, but disapproval looks extremely sticky downward. In theory an incumbent can win with a disapproval rating of 55% or so against an extremely-weak challenger, as either an  incompetent campaigner or with a scandal looming over him. 

I'm rather curious to see if Trump can rebuild his image in time for 2020. Obama spent most of his presidency in the mid 40s, and he was able to get back to the low-50s by Fall 2012, but there are obviously big differences between Obama and Trump. Trump's "strong disapprove" is insanely high, and contrary to Obama, Trump has always been unpopular. His weak post-inauguration surge was a unique period of time in that regard. To make matters worse, Trump's utter lack of discipline and highly impulsive nature makes it impossible for him to really reach out beyond his shrinking base. Further, at best, Trump's only accomplishments will be tax reform, which will easily be attacked as a giveaway to the rich and special interests, or at worst, he ends up accomplishing nothing. The ultimate worst case scenario is Democrats take back at least one chamber of Congress in 2018, and constant investigations into his administration make the last 2 years nothing but scandals and negative news (or in other words, not much different than the first year )

I honestly don't see how he pulls off a win in 2020 without drawing a candidate as weak and unpopular as him.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Survey Monkey State by State Approval

Among 163,671 adults interviewed June 1-August 31, 2017. In map form:

Only -8 in Florida?

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Survey Monkey State by State Approval

Among 163,671 adults interviewed June 1-August 31, 2017. In map form:

Only -8 in Florida?

It's crazy. It's identical to Texas and Georgia is -10.

[pbrower2a]

Approval ratings can rise and fall, but disapproval looks extremely sticky downward. In theory an incumbent can win with a disapproval rating of 55% or so against an extremely-weak challenger, as either an  incompetent campaigner or with a scandal looming over him.

I'm rather curious to see if Trump can rebuild his image in time for 2020. Obama spent most of his presidency in the mid 40s, and he was able to get back to the low-50s by Fall 2012, but there are obviously big differences between Obama and Trump. Trump's "strong disapprove" is insanely high, and contrary to Obama, Trump has always been unpopular. His weak post-inauguration surge was a unique period of time in that regard. To make matters worse, Trump's utter lack of discipline and highly impulsive nature makes it impossible for him to really reach out beyond his shrinking base. Further, at best, Trump's only accomplishments will be tax reform, which will easily be attacked as a giveaway to the rich and special interests, or at worst, he ends up accomplishing nothing. The ultimate worst case scenario is Democrats take back at least one chamber of Congress in 2018, and constant investigations into his administration make the last 2 years nothing but scandals and negative news (or in other words, not much different than the first year )

I honestly don't see how he pulls off a win in 2020 without drawing a candidate as weak and unpopular as him.

Obama got about 52% of the popular vote with the aid of some of the shrewdest campaigning that anyone ever did. He had to, for he was... you know. Once he started governing his approval ratings fell within about a year to the mid-40s. That's what happens: when one is not campaigning one's measurable approval (which begins as the vote) drops about 7%. But once he started campaigning he was able to get about 51% of the popular vote in 2012.

Obama was one of the most scandal-free Presidents ever, but he still had a characteristic that disqualified him to a significant fraction of the American public. With the temperament of Eisenhower and the mastery of  communication of Ronald Reagan -- I can predict that the next successful conservative President will be much more like Obama than unlike him (ignoring melanin).

With an approval rating that never sank below the mid-forties he was able to win re-election so long as he did a spirited and competent campaign, and that he did, and then against a stronger-than-usual challenger.  Better than Kerry, Dole, Mondale, McGovern,  Goldwater. Stevenson, Dewey, or Willkie -- and probably Carter. Technically FDR in 1932 and Reagan in 1980 were challengers, but they were outliers.     .

I'd like to go back to the ratings of President Obama for disapproval on a statewide basis. Gallup national ratings had his disapproval peaking at 53%, and even that was the result of a well-organized campaign by the Hard Right which used the Tea Party as pawns. Whacking Osama bin Laden probably helped.

But statewide? As I recall, Obama was doing well enough in the states that he needed for a win while he got 70% disapproval ratings in twenty or so states.  

...As effectively as I could check the archives I saw a poll in which Obama had a disapproval rating of 53% in Ohio in 2011, and he still won the state in 2012.  

[Virginiá]

Gallup (September 8th)

Approve 38% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

[JA]

Survey Monkey State by State Approval

Among 163,671 adults interviewed June 1-August 31, 2017. In map form:

Job Approval Advantage

+20% | Wyoming
+17% | West Virginia
+15% | Alabama
+12% | Arkansas
+09% | Oklahoma
+08% | Louisiana
+07% | South Dakota
+06% | Idaho
+06% | Kentucky
+06% | Mississippi
+06% | North Dakota
+04% | Tennessee
+03% | Montana
+01% | Missouri
-03%  | Nebraska
-04%  | Indiana
-04%  | Kansas
-04%  | South Carolina
-05%  | Iowa
-08%  | Florida
-08%  | Ohio
-08%  | Texas
-10%  | Alaska
-10%  | Georgia
-11%  | Wisconsin
-12%  | Arizona
-12%  | Pennsylvania
-12%  | Utah
-13%  | North Carolina
-14%  | Nevada
-15%  | Michigan
-18%  | Virginia
-19%  | Delaware
-19%  | Maine
-21%  | New Mexico
-24%  | Colorado
-25%  | Minnesota
-25%  | Oregon
-26%  | New Hampshire
-26%  | New Jersey
-27%  | Rhode Island
-29%  | Connecticut
-30%  | Illinois
-31%  | Hawaii
-31%  | New York
-32%  | Washington
-34%  | California
-36%  | Maryland
-37%  | Vermont
-39%  | Massachusetts
-71%  | District of Columbia

Strongly Disapprove Job Approval

74% | District of Columbia
61% | Vermont
58% | Massachusetts
57% | Washington
56% | California
55% | Maryland
54% | New Hampshire
54% | New York
54% | Oregon
53% | Connecticut
52% | Illinois
52% | Minnesota
51% | Colorado
51% | Maine
51% | New Jersey
50% | Delaware
50% | Hawaii
49% | New Mexico
49% | Rhode Island
49% | Virginia
46% | Michigan
45% | Nevada
45% | North Carolina
45% | Pennsylvania
45% | Wisconsin
44% | Arizona
44% | Ohio
43% | Georgia
42% | Alaska
42% | Florida
41% | Iowa
41% | Kansas
41% | Texas
41% | Utah
40% | South Carolina
39% | Indiana
39% | Montana
38% | Missouri
38% | Nebraska
37% | Tennessee
36% | Mississippi
35% | Idaho
35% | Louisiana
35% | South Dakota
34% | Arkansas
34% | Kentucky
34% | Oklahoma
32% | West Virginia
31% | Alabama
31% | North Dakota
30% | Wyoming