Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[pbrower2a]

Now with later polling (July 24 or later)

NJ, Rutgers-Eagleton 30-65

Zogby Interactive
FL 45-52
IN 48-48
KY 52-44
MI 38-57
MO 46-40
MT 49-46
ND 51-44
OH 45-52
PA 40-55
WI 40-57
WV 48-48

Kentucky, PPP, 60-38

Marist:

Michigan 36-55
Pennsylvania 35-54
Wisconsin 34-56

(Zogby Interactive  supplants these)

PPP, Tennessee 51-42
University of New Hampshire, 34-55

Quinnipiac, Virginia 36-61

PPP, North Carolina 44-50
PPP, Arizona 45-53
PPP, Nevada 42-53

PPIC, California 25-71

Using only those that have fewer than 10% undecided,

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less


Ties are in white.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

West Virginia is waking up.

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia is waking up.

The one really waking up could be Kansas. Republicans have gone so far to the Right that voters could be getting sick of the GOP. The Kansas Democratic Party is very small, but I can imagine Republican dissidents taking it ove. That would give Kansas one of the more conservative Democratic Parties by state... but the political center now has little voice anywhere in America. 

[ProgressiveCanadian]

True but my god for Trumps strongest state in 2016 that voted for him by over 70% to be this bad for him is hilarious.

[Blackacre]

Some states are acting... weird. MT and WV fluctuate between being Trump's best states and either being tied (WV) or just barely approving (MT). This is the second time Ive seen WV in white on this thread actually.

Also, whats with FL? Trump barely won it, but it's closer to states he won comfortably (TX, SC) than other states he barely won (MI, PA, WI)

[GlobeSoc]

Some states are acting... weird. MT and WV fluctuate between being Trump's best states and either being tied (WV) or just barely approving (MT). This is the second time Ive seen WV in white on this thread actually.

Also, whats with FL? Trump barely won it, but it's closer to states he won comfortably (TX, SC) than other states he barely won (MI, PA, WI)

Boomers may be starting to take their toll on Florida's PVI. I could see a Cuban republican result in FL's PVI being several points to the right

[pbrower2a]

Some states are acting... weird. MT and WV fluctuate between being Trump's best states and either being tied (WV) or just barely approving (MT). This is the second time Ive seen WV in white on this thread actually.

Also, whats with FL? Trump barely won it, but it's closer to states he won comfortably (TX, SC) than other states he barely won (MI, PA, WI)

Florida was rather close to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Presidential vote in 2016. Donald Trump played on economic distress in the Rust Belt, but he has since done little for the Rust Belt. Voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin think they have been had. They wanted a populist and got someone who acts like a bad aristocrat instead. Florida is not so blatant. 52% disapproval (and at this stage I am looking at disapproval numbers -- I saw through him before the election, and I live in Michigan) may not be as horrid as 57% in Michigan, but it is still awful in a legitimate swing state. It's like hearing that the temperature in International Falls is -44 but 'only' -26 in Minneapolis. -26 is quite unpleasant, too.    

I'm paying more attention to disapproval numbers... and the oddity is that such states as Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas are going so sharply away from Trump. With Texas, this could be the rapid growth of the Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) electorate. See also Arizona, and look at how sharply Colorado is turning against him. As a candidate, Donald Trump said some nasty things about Mexico that will not quickly be forgotten. I need not restate the words. If you are a Mexican-American or you are married to a Mexican-American, then those words sting.  

Speaking of states with large Mexican-American populations in the Southwest:

California used to be reliably Republican as late as 1988, although Reagan landslides may have covered the D trend in the state from the 1960s. New Mexico used to be reliably Republican, then iffy as a state could be (splitting in two close elections in 2000 and 2004); it now votes more like Massachusetts than like Arizona or Texas. Nevada is much the same. Colorado was a tough win for Democrats until 2008, about like Virginia. Colorado and Virginia look like near-twins in their voting despite great differences in heritage... which is now a disaster for the GOP.

Arizona and Texas swung heavily against the GOP in the last Presidential election. But let us remember: here is how Donald Trump goes in some swing states or potential swing states. Two of the states that he came closest to winning in 2016 seem far out of contention.  Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will go back to voting as they did for Obama for the next Democratic nominee.  

New Hampshire 64
Minnesota 62
Michigan 57
Wisconsin 57
Pennsylvania 55
Utah 55
Georgia 54
Arizona 53
Nevada 53
Texas 53
Florida 52
Iowa 52
Ohio 52
North Carolina 50

This is all really, really bad news. I'm not sure that any Democratic nominee has a chance of winning Utah because... well, the state is Utah. But a strong Third-Party nominee with the backing of the LDS Church could be big trouble for him.

The others?

In the Mountain South and the Deep South, President Trump is beginning to seem like a really-obnoxious d@mnyankee. In the High Plains, he is reminding people of a stereotypical city-slicker. OK, so Obama was brainy, bit at least he had some decencies.

You see it from me first: I see portents of Donald Trump losing the 2020  Presidential election much as Jimmy Carter did in 1980 or Herbert Hoover did in 1932 even before there is an economic, military, or diplomatic disaster. He made promises that he can never keep. He appealed to Christian fundamentalists in his opposition to godless liberalism, yet he has pro0ved the most godless man to ever be President. He is not at all effective as President whether one likes or dislikes his agenda. He acts out of spite, which is bad leadership in any activity.

Now here is another possibility: the political polarization which went to the extreme with Barack Obama, not so much for the usual Left-Right split (Obama was quite conservative on law and order and on national defense and foreign policy, and stood as rigidly as anyone on legal precedent as anyone), or regional affiliation may be abating. In 2008 Obama won with margins like those of Ronald Reagan in some states and  lost with margins like those of George McGovern in others. No President had ever been elected while losing as badly as Obama did in 2008 in his worst twenty states. Yes, Republicans could lose every former Confederate state and still get elected -- and lose those states by 90-10 margins because those states had about as much political competition as the Soviet Union had. (The Democratic Party was not a democratic Party in most Southern states).  

Could it be race? Sure, we know about the South -- but Obama won Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida in 2008 and was competitive in Georgia. But I doubt that the High Plains states are any more 'racist' than New England.

Here's my suggestion for the next Democratic nominee for President: be as much like Obama as possible in agenda (except to address poverty, the Big Problem in America) and character -- but just lay off the melanin!

[Blackacre]

Some states are acting... weird. MT and WV fluctuate between being Trump's best states and either being tied (WV) or just barely approving (MT). This is the second time Ive seen WV in white on this thread actually.

Also, whats with FL? Trump barely won it, but it's closer to states he won comfortably (TX, SC) than other states he barely won (MI, PA, WI)

Florida was rather close to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Presidential vote in 2016. Donald Trump played on economic distress in the Rust Belt, but he has since done little for the Rust Belt. Voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin think they have been had. They wanted a populist and got someone who acts like a bad aristocrat instead. Florida is not so blatant. 52% disapproval (and at this stage I am looking at disapproval numbers -- I saw through him before the election, and I live in Michigan) may not be as horrid as 57% in Michigan, but it is still awful in a legitimate swing state. It's like hearing that the temperature in International Falls is -44 but 'only' -26 in Minneapolis. -26 is quite unpleasant, too.    

I'm paying more attention to disapproval numbers... and the oddity is that such states as Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas are going so sharply away from Trump. With Texas, this could be the rapid growth of the Hispanic (largely Mexican-American) electorate. See also Arizona, and look at how sharply Colorado is turning against him. As a candidate, Donald Trump said some nasty things about Mexico that will not quickly be forgotten. I need not restate the words. If you are a Mexican-American or you are married to a Mexican-American, then those words sting.  

Speaking of states with large Mexican-American populations in the Southwest:

California used to be reliably Republican as late as 1988, although Reagan landslides may have covered the D trend in the state from the 1960s. New Mexico used to be reliably Republican, then iffy as a state could be (splitting in two close elections in 2000 and 2004); it now votes more like Massachusetts than like Arizona or Texas. Nevada is much the same. Colorado was a tough win for Democrats until 2008, about like Virginia. Colorado and Virginia look like near-twins in their voting despite great differences in heritage... which is now a disaster for the GOP.

Arizona and Texas swung heavily against the GOP in the last Presidential election. But let us remember: here is how Donald Trump goes in some swing states or potential swing states. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will go back to voting as they did for Obama for the next Democratic nominee.  

New Hampshire 64
Minnesota 62
Michigan 57
Wisconsin 57
Pennsylvania 55
Utah 55
Georgia 54
Arizona 53
Nevada 53
Texas 53
Florida 52
Iowa 52
Ohio 52
North Carolina 50

This is all really, really bad news. I'm not sure that any Democratic nominee has a chance of winning Utah because... well, the state is Utah. But a strong Third-Party nominee with the backing of the LDS Church could be big trouble for him.

The others?

In the Mountain South and the Deep South, President Trump is beginning to seem like a really-obnoxious d@mnyankee. In the High Plains, he is reminding people of a stereotypical city-slicker.
OK, so Obama was brainy, bit at least he had some decencies.

You see it from me first: I see portents of Donald Trump losing the 2020  Presidential election much as Jimmy Carter did in 1980 or Herbert Hoover did in 1932 even before there is an economic, military, or diplomatic disaster. He made promises that he can never keep. He appealed to Christian fundamentalists in his opposition to godless liberalism, yet he has pro0ved the most godless man to ever be President. He is not at all effective as President whether one likes or dislikes his agenda. He acts out of spite, which is bad leadership in any activity.

Now here is another possibility: the political polarization which went to the extreme with Barack Obama, not so much for the usual Left-Right split (Obama was quite conservative on law and order and on national defense and foreign policy, and stood as rigidly as anyone on legal precedent as anyone), or regional affiliation may be abating. In 2008 Obama won with margins like those of Ronald Reagan in some states and  lost with margins like those of George McGovern in others. No President had ever been elected while losing as badly as Obama did in 2008 in his worst twenty states. Yes, Republicans could lose every former Confederate state and still get elected -- and lose those states by 90-10 margins because those states had about as much political competition as the Soviet Union had. (The Democratic Party was not a democratic Party in most Southern states).  

Could it be race? Sure, we know about the South -- but Obama won Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida in 2008 and was competitive in Georgia. But I doubt that the High Plains states are any more 'racist' than New England.

Here's my suggestion for the next Democratic nominee for President: be as much like Obama as possible in agenda (except to address poverty, the Big Problem in America) and character -- but just lay off the melanin!

You only say follies and fantasies, hillary and pelosi are less popular than trump, their disapproval never means that people vote for a democrat.
Come on, they won all the special elections. (It's sarcasm)

@prower: That's true, Florida is a traditional swing state and MI/WI/PA might just be reverting to form. But I'm looking more at the approval numbers than the disapproval numbers, and Florida's looking weird in that respect because it's closer to Texas and SC than NC and PA. But still, you make solid points. 

KS and NE still surprise me though. Obama was competitive in different Mountain states (MT, the twin Dakotas) than the ones that are turning on Trump now. I find it fascinating

@Daniel: HRC isnt doing herself any favors, but she's fading into irrelevance anyway and won't be a factor in 2020. As for Pelosi, well, congressional leaders are always less popular than the President. McConnell and Ryan are just as despised as she is. Boehner and McConnell always polled worse than Obama. And regarding the special elections, the margin matters more than the result. Every House special election thus far has been in a traditionally safe seat, and they've moved several points to the Dems

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Two polls have Trump with single digit approvals in Kentucky and then randomly PPP has it +22% for him? Seems like an outliar,  it's probably close to Arkansas and Louisiana's approvals.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Alright did a swing map comparing Trump's numbers on election day to his approvals now.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Alright did a swing map comparing Trump's numbers on election day to his approvals now.

I do think that New Hampshire will have the biggest swing in 2020.

[Horus]

Alright did a swing map comparing Trump's numbers on election day to his approvals now.

I see Hawaii is continuing to be pro incumbent.

[GlobeSoc]

All of the pink states except Kentucky are urban states and id point out that the poll leaving it in pink may be an outlier, although one possibility could be that KY is de facto giving him a home state bonus.

The Orange appears to be deep southern, new england, iowa, NM/AZ and a few more urban states.

The red appears to be midwestern, with a few southern and western states too.

The deep red seems to be new hampshire, West Virginia, and the interior plains.

This implies a bizarro version of TD's map, where not just the south but the interior plains sprint dem. Id note that every state with a significant hispanic constituency, except maybe Colorado or Texas, appears to trend GOP.

Could wé have a trend map based on this?

[Badger]

EPIC/MRI, Michigan:

Job performance -- negative, 62%.

Michiganders questioning  the mental stability of the President. -- 43% unstable, 45% stable

More effective: Obama 56%, Trump 32%

Investigations against him a "witch-hunt" -- agree 34%, disagree 55% (disagreement is hostile to the President's credibility)

Worry about the President handling North Korea -- 38% very worried, 15% somewhat worried   

Overall

36% favorable, 58% unfavorable


I do not use favorability polls anymore, so this will not appear on the map. But there is new data to show some flavor to the perception of the President.

http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/09/06/michigan-poll-president-trump-mental-health/634859001/

Perhaps my favorite part of this poll is the guy in charge of administering it is named Bernie Porn.

Best name in polling EVER, LOL!

Man, the ridicule that anybody from that family must endure. I hope he doesn't name his daughter Lolita or Granny or something creepy like that.

Corrected.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (September 9th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 38% (+-0)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (+1)

[Matty]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

Depends on the details.  If it looks like a windfall for the rich, it's hard to see this helping him among working class Republicans.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

Depends on the details.  If it looks like a windfall for the rich, it's hard to see this helping him among working class Republicans.

I don't see Trump doing anything but giving a huge tax break to the rich and corporation's.

[GlobeSoc]

Tax reform will cause suburb gop to trend d

[pbrower2a]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

Theoretically it could do him good among his current supporters. It could also remind others why they dislike this man.

And what if he is ineffective?

Tax cuts must be paid for some way -- higher taxes later, especially to pay off larger deficits. Unless the taxes were so high that they were discouraging taxable activity their reduction will not pay for itself.    

For good reason I do not ordinarily predict how polling will go after some event, especially in the legislative process. I expected Obama to have about a 10% gain in approval after whacking Osama bin Laden. His approval didn't rise much. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Depends on the details.  If it looks like a windfall for the rich, it's hard to see this helping him among working class Republicans.

What working-class Republicans?

[Matty]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

tax reform needs 60 votes

Trump is terrible at making deals...he aint getting 60 votes

Don't be so sure. There have always been a few democrats willing to vote for tax reform under a GOP prez. We saw it happen under reagan and bush II.

[Blackacre]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

tax reform needs 60 votes

Trump is terrible at making deals...he aint getting 60 votes

Don't be so sure. There have always been a few democrats willing to vote for tax reform under a GOP prez. We saw it happen under reagan and bush II.

Only vulnerable Dems will vote vote for tax reform...Heitekamp, O Donnely, Manchin, McCaskill....maybe Nelson? That's still only 57 votes at most

Depends of course on Trump's approval in those states and especially how the tax bill polls there. Capito was a thorn in Trump's side during much of the ACA repeal bizz bc all the replacement bills polls horribly in WV