Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Gass3268]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

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http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Ouch!

[windjammer]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

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http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

That means he's likely unpopular in MO and IN

[GlobeSoc]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

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http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Ouch!

I imagine that the upland south is less stable for trump than some might think. Really, Idaho and Wyoming are the only states that I could firmly say will never leave the Trump column.

[Tintrlvr]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

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http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Ouch!

I imagine that the upland south is less stable for trump than some might think. Really, Idaho and Wyoming are the only states that I could firmly say will never leave the Trump column.

In approval, sure, although Arkansas is exactly the kind of state that would have a negative approval rating for Trump in 2020 but still vote 60% for him because of muh blacks and gays and gungrabbers.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 22nd)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/trumps-approval-how-low-can-he-go/

^ tool to manipulate his approval ratings among certain demographics to see what it takes to get his approvals to >50%

[OneJ]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

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http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Lol. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if he's underwater or tied in approval in states like MS or SC.

[pbrower2a]

Huge shift in what should be one of the President's best states:

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

...I don't know whether the self-pardon talk is relevant to this poll. I would expect that stuff to cut President Trump down more where his approval ratings were strongest and less damage (how could this hurt him more in...  New York or even Michigan, where his approvals are already in the toilet?)

Likewise, but in a state that has voted for a Democratic nominee for president only once since 1948:

Utah

48% Approve
50% Disapprove

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It's unfortunate that we do not have polls of such states as Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, or Ohio against which to see how this self-pardon talk looks.  

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

More telling may be disapproval ratings. Some of these are favorability ratings, which will get an asterisk.

Disapproval ratings:

Map for this theme:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

* favorability

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

More:

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[emailking]

I imagine that the upland south is less stable for trump than some might think. Really, Idaho and Wyoming are the only states that I could firmly say will never leave the Trump column.

West Virginia too maybe?

[Person Man]

More:

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More Resistors than AltRighters in Arkansas?

[pbrower2a]

I imagine that the upland south is less stable for trump than some might think. Really, Idaho and Wyoming are the only states that I could firmly say will never leave the Trump column.

West Virginia too maybe?

Maybe Oklahoma.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Wait 'till we see some new polls. The consequences of the 'pardon-myself' talk  have yet to sink in. Arkansas was not my first choice of polls to see. Ohio got polled a lot in 2016, and few states could better show any such change. 

But it might soon be time to start "Trump approval ratings thread" 1.2 shortly. In fact I think that I might start it pre-emptively. I got caught with such a change and had to input a bunch of data again. This is as good as any break; the Arkansas poll comes from before the disclosure.

[henster]

AR is ancestrally Democratic this may be some of those old roots coming back. It was somewhat competitive during the Bush years.

[TheSaint250]

Utah

48% Approve
50% Disapprove

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Actually surprised that more people approve than voted for him.

[GlobeSoc]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Lol. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if he's underwater or tied in approval in states like MS or SC.

Almost certainly below water in MS, less certain about SC.

Utah

48% Approve
50% Disapprove

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Unlike most states, the Utah GOP brand is completely decoupled from the Trump brand, so this won't affect any race, except possibly 2020-president if Trump stops being an idiot for long enough to avoid impeachment.

[JerryArkansas]

I imagine that the upland south is less stable for trump than some might think. Really, Idaho and Wyoming are the only states that I could firmly say will never leave the Trump column.

West Virginia too maybe?

Maybe Oklahoma.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Wait 'till we see some new polls. The consequences of the 'pardon-myself' talk  has yet to sink in. Arkansas was not my first choice of polls to see.

But it might soon be time to start "Trump approval ratings thread" 1.2 shortly. In fact I think that I might start it pre-emptively. I got caught with such a change and had to input a bunch of data again. This is as good as any break; the Arkansas poll comes from before the disclosure.

Yeah, can we hold off on the circle-jerking that he's underwater in 40+ states just yet? This is just one poll from a historically bad pollster. They were way too bullish on Pryor in 2014

Almost every pollster in the country was bad in 2014.  That isn't the best test of how sh**t one is.

[henster]

Maybe with the right candidate a Dem could manage Kerry performances in AR, WV, KY like 43-46% of the vote instead of 33-36.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[JA]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Ouch!

I imagine that the upland south is less stable for trump than some might think. Really, Idaho and Wyoming are the only states that I could firmly say will never leave the Trump column.

In approval, sure, although Arkansas is exactly the kind of state that would have a negative approval rating for Trump in 2020 but still vote 60% for him because of muh blacks and gays and gungrabbers.

Arkansas isn't an exceptionally racist state.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/04/28/the-most-racist-places-in-america-according-to-google/
http://users.humboldt.edu/mstephens/hate/hate_map.html#

But I'm very glad to see Trump's numbers so poorly there. Hopefully Democrats will be able to make significant inroads into the state in 2018 or 2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Huge shift in what should be one of the President's best states:

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

...I don't know whether the self-pardon talk is relevant to this poll. I would expect that stuff to cut President Trump down more where his approval ratings were strongest and less damage (how could this hurt him more in...  New York or even Michigan, where his approvals are already in the toilet?)

It's unfortunate that we do not have polls of such states as Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, or Ohio against which to see how this self-pardon talk looks.  

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

More telling may be disapproval ratings. Some of these are favorability ratings, which will get an asterisk.

Disapproval ratings:

Map for this theme:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

* favorability

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

It is very hard to see how Trump will win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2020.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Paging pbrower2a: Gallup daily tracking poll averages of approvals in all 50 states

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WV (60), ND (59), and SD (57) are Trump's best states, while VT (26), MA (29), CA & MD (30 each) are his worst.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Paging pbrower2a: Gallup daily tracking poll averages of approvals in all 50 states

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WV (60), ND (59), and SD (57) are Trump's best states, while VT (26), MA (29), CA & MD (30 each) are his worst.

Nothing seems really unbelievable in these. Maybe NH being too pro-Trump

Nevada too, I thought.  It's interesting that he's higher in NH, NV, OH, PA, and IA than in TX, GA, AZ, and NC.

[Person Man]

Paging pbrower2a: Gallup daily tracking poll averages of approvals in all 50 states

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WV (60), ND (59), and SD (57) are Trump's best states, while VT (26), MA (29), CA & MD (30 each) are his worst.

Nothing seems really unbelievable in these. Maybe NH being too pro-Trump

Nevada too, I thought.  It's interesting that he's higher in NH, NV, OH, PA, and IA than in TX, GA, AZ, and NC.

Trends seem to be accelerating....

[Brittain33]

Convergence of Ohio and Indiana is unexpected.

[Wiz in Wis]

The number I'm finding most surprising is Utah. A positive approval rating there really means the Mormons have given up the ghost.