Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[maga2020]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/07/27/arizona-polltrump-approval-at-47-support-for-gop.html

Arizona is not a swing state.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

When McCain left the floor before the vote, he went to take a call from Trump

He was unable to change his mind.

We are so lucky that the Orange Clown is too much of a bumbling idiot to win anyone over. Back in 2003 during the House vote on Medicaid Part D expansion, the bill was losing at around midnight. Tom 'The Hammer' Delay and GOP leaders literally kept voting open until dawn to bully the no's and have them change their votes to pass the bill.

[Rookie Yinzer]

These days, the big cities are generally the home of productive people who are paying for the rest of the country.

[henster]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/07/27/arizona-polltrump-approval-at-47-support-for-gop.html

Arizona is not a swing state.

So much for the sunbelt strategy. I always thought AZ was a state ripe for Trump with its retirees from all over especially the Rust belt and love of hardcore immigration policies. GA is another heavy lift, whites have been pretty inelastic.

[Person Man]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/07/27/arizona-polltrump-approval-at-47-support-for-gop.html

Arizona is not a swing state.

So much for the sunbelt strategy. I always thought AZ was a state ripe for Trump with its retirees from all over especially the Rust belt and love of hardcore immigration policies. GA is another heavy lift, whites have been pretty inelastic.

this is just one poll.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/07/27/arizona-polltrump-approval-at-47-support-for-gop.html

Arizona is not normally a swing state.

Fixed. Many people were surprised to see Virginia going to Obama in 2008.

[Inmate Trump]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/07/27/arizona-polltrump-approval-at-47-support-for-gop.html

Arizona is not a swing state.

Not true anymore.  Hillary was competitive there.  The state was very close.

[Person Man]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/07/27/arizona-polltrump-approval-at-47-support-for-gop.html

Arizona is not a swing state.

Not true anymore.  Hillary was competitive there.  The state was very close.

$500 that the next Democratic president takes Arizona. Any takers?

[Adam Griffin]

Meh, Arizona isn't a swing state - though it has the ability to be one in the future. Just like PA wasn't a swing state until following the 2016 election. A state that is consistently close but nevertheless consistently votes for one party over the other is a competitive state, but by definition, not a swing state.

[All Along The Watchtower]

These days, the big cities are generally the home of productive people who are paying for the rest of the country.

Makers and Takers right?

[BudgieForce]

Harvard Harris Poll:

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 56%

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Topline-HCAPS_July-Wave_Topline-Memo_Registered-Voters_Custom-Banners_7....pdf

[heatcharger]

Harvard Harris Poll:

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 56%

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Topline-HCAPS_July-Wave_Topline-Memo_Registered-Voters_Custom-Banners_7....pdf

Trump is more unpopular than Hillary again. Great news!

[Santander]

These days, the big cities are generally the home of productive people who are paying for the rest of the country.

Makers and Takers right?

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 28th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (+2)


-

Trump remains stalled out at 39% for the 3rd day in a row, and disapproval rating spikes up again.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/07/27/arizona-polltrump-approval-at-47-support-for-gop.html

Arizona is not a swing state.

It hasn't been a real swing state -- but it was closer for Hillary Clinton in a close election than it was for Obama in two not-so-close elections.

See also Texas.

In any event,

I'd guess that disapproval of President Trump is over 80% in the District of Columbia. Assuming that the Congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska go as their states go at-large,  I can count electoral votes by disapproval rating based either upon the Gallup composite or a poll from May or later...

Listing the electoral votes available at levels of disapproval for the President from the lowest levels to the highest

EVB  DSR CHG   EVA   states
  
000   36   11     011    ND WV WY
006   39   16     027    AL OK
022   41   03     030    MT
030   42   21     051    ID KS TN
051   43   23     075    KY LA NE SD
075   44   09     084    SC
084   46   16     100    MO MS
100   47   06     106    AR
106   48   32     138    AK  IN OH
138   50   37     175    GA NC UT
175   51   77     252    FL TX  WI
252   52   17     269    AZ IA
269   53   06     275    NV
275   55   08     283    ME RI
270   56   15     298    DE NM OR
295   57   31     329    CO MN VA
317   58   34     363    IL NJ
347   59   24     387    CO HI WA
383   60   04     391    NH
387   61   16     407    MI
403   62   49     456    NY PA
456   64   10     466    MD
466   66   11     477    MA
477   71   58     535    CA VT
535   80   03     538    DC


EVB -- electoral votes for Trump  BEFORE winning the state(s)
DIS -- disapproval rating
CHG -- change in the number of electoral votes
EVA -- electoral votes for Trump AFTER winning states in this category
'80' is my guess for the District of Columbia.

This is how the states 'fall' if I  use disapproval ratings for the President to predict which states switch from an unnamed opponent to Donald Trump. He must win states in which his disapproval rating is 43% just to avoid a loss like those of Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. For him to lose that badly he would have to lose even more credibility.

The elder Bush got only 168 electoral votes in 1992. He wasn't a really-awful President; he just couldn't convince people that he had any idea of what to do in a second term. To avoid losing that badly, President Trump would have to win some states in which 50% of the people disapprove of his performance. In a close election, Gerald Ford lost to Jimmy Carter with 30 electoral votes short of a win. He would need to win states in which his disapproval is now at 51%.

By winning every state in which his disapproval rating is 52% he would get a tie in the Electoral College. House delegations would then decide who wins unless the President can pick off the Second Congressional District of Maine.

To win roughly as Dubya did in 2004 (284 electoral votes) he would have to win states in which his disapproval rating is at 55%.

... To win re-election, President Trump must cut down the level of disapproval from the high fifties to the high forties, at the least. Being six months into the Presidency and having a disapproval level of 53% at the lowest in enough states to lose the election outright is better than being in the same position six months before the election, but that's like saying that being behind 10-0 in a baseball game after the second inning is better than being behind 14-4 going into the seventh inning. (For people who do not understand American baseball, a baseball fame is nine innings, and the average number of runs that a team scores is about 5).

If there is any possible analogy to 1980, it is that a Democrat will have the role of Ronald Reagan. It is far too early to suggest such a result, as it would require new failures of this President. Carter was at 65% approval nationwide approval at this time forty years ago, and much went wrong for him.  

I am in no position in which to predict what can and will go wrong for this President. But this said, most Americans who despise this President would be satisfied if he ends up losing as Ford did.

...but even this is a conservative assessment of the chances of Democrats winning the 2020 Presidential election. There are possible events that nobody wants to happen that would utterly disgrace this Administration. Many of the numbers are composites of Gallup polls split by states in numbers inadequate for reliable numbers for individual states then but adequate as a composite -- if one treats them as "late April" polls, for that is the average time in which they were taken. Such is so for about half the states.

It is easy to see how any Democratic nominee wins in 2020. The states in red have disapproval ratings of 55 or higher for President Trump, and any halfway-competent Democratic challenger of the President will have 263 electoral votes almost automatically (it would be 264, but one of the electoral votes is from Maine-02, which voted for President Trump and for which I have no data). Disapproval for President Trump is at 53%, so Nevada + ME-02 puts the election up to the House  vote... something that a Republican might not want to assume reliable in January 2020. Add NE-02 (the Nebraska district, largely Omaha) that went to Obama in 2008, and the Democrat wins the Presidency outright with 270 electoral votes.

But should President Trump somehow win Nevada...

there are just too many ways for Trump to lose to make a bet on him anything other than a long-shot. Iowa, in which Donald Trump is a disappointment despite his decisive win there, works much like Nevada. Iowa and Wisconsin usually vote in tandem, so much so that the last time that they did not vote together (2004) they both went by less than 10,000 votes for the winner in 2004. Because it will be less tricky to win Wisconsin outright than Iowa + ME-02 +NE-02, and it is hard to see any Democrat winning Iowa but not Wisconsin I am going to discuss Wisconsin as an independent event. The Democrat will win Florida before winning either Georgia or Texas; Ohio before winning Indiana or Missouri; or Arizona before winning Utah (which is more likely to go to an independent conservative than to a Democrat); or even Nevada and Iowa together... so I don't need to mention Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Texas, or Utah deciding the next election. The states that he barely lost except Nevada are basically gone, so he can forget New Hampshire, Minnesota, Maine, Colorado, and Virginia next time. I see Michigan and Pennsylvania both turning against him even faster than Indiana slipped away from Obama.  

But that leaves e(AZ), e(FL), e(NV+ME2+NE2), e(NC), e(OH), and e(WI) as chances for Trump winning any of the states or combinations that he must keep away from the Democrat. Those chances, or values, are practically what statisticians call 'independent events; such as coin tosses and rolls of dice. One multiplies those chances to get expected results on the whole. All chances are less than one, but even an 80% chance of winning every one of them gives him about a 12% chance of winning re-election.

Random chance is all that I can discuss now about the likelihood of the President being re-elected. Much can change, and we can only speculate on how that changes the prospects for the 2020 election. You can believe that people who dislike, let alone loathe, this President will be doing everything possible to grease the skids.  

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

[windjammer]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

It has been for a long time he's between 35-40 now right?

[Dr. Arch]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

It has been for a long time he's between 35-40 now right?

His approval ceiling has gradually been coming down over the last few months. He used to be able to hit the low 40s; now he can't. His disapproval floor has been gradually going up simultaneously, and he has done nothing to reverse it. In any case, his presidency is more disastrous by the day.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

It has been for a long time he's between 35-40 now right?

July 11 was the last time he had a Gallup approval above 39%. This was right after he had returned from the G20 summit.

[Badger]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

It has been for a long time he's between 35-40 now right?

Yeah, he is hit his base core of conservative Republicans support who won't abandon him short of a recession and / or russiagate hitting impeachment level Watergate standards

[Inmate Trump]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

It has been for a long time he's between 35-40 now right?

Yeah, he is hit his base core of conservative Republicans support who won't abandon him short of a recession and / or russiagate hitting impeachment level Watergate standards

In other words, the morons who don't care about the nation at all, but only about furthering their political party. If Trump was a Democrat pushing the same agenda, they would all bail just because of the D next to his name.

And yes, I'm referring to several posters here.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

It has been for a long time he's between 35-40 now right?

Yeah, he is hit his base core of conservative Republicans support who won't abandon him short of a recession and / or russiagate hitting impeachment level Watergate standards

In other words, the morons who don't care about the nation at all, but only about furthering their political party. If Trump was a Democrat pushing the same agenda, they would all bail just because of the D next to his name.

And yes, I'm referring to several posters here.

I am a partisan Democrat, but had Donald Trump been the Democratic nominee and adopted boilerplate liberalism as a cover for his ideology, then I would  have voted for any Republican except Ted Cruz (creepy and dishonest) over him. Donald Trump has said things that make me sick. If only Republicans had heeded Mitt Romney last year.

Then again, liberals can easily reject those who stiff contractors, encourage violence, or brag about grabbing women by their crotches. We liberals generally do not tolerate rogues supposedly on our side.

To liberals Donald Trump is an ethical monster. To many conservatives, President Trump is a political failure. 

I just wish that Republicans had heeded Mitt Romney. Everything that Romney said about Trump has proved true.

[Inmate Trump]

Gallup (July 29th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

It has been for a long time he's between 35-40 now right?

Yeah, he is hit his base core of conservative Republicans support who won't abandon him short of a recession and / or russiagate hitting impeachment level Watergate standards

In other words, the morons who don't care about the nation at all, but only about furthering their political party. If Trump was a Democrat pushing the same agenda, they would all bail just because of the D next to his name.

And yes, I'm referring to several posters here.

I am a partisan Democrat, but had Donald Trump been the Democratic nominee and adopted boilerplate liberalism as a cover for his ideology, then I would  have voted for any Republican except Ted Cruz (creepy and dishonest) over him. Donald Trump has said things that make me sick. If only Republicans had heeded Mitt Romney last year.

Then again, liberals can easily reject those who stiff contractors, encourage violence, or brag about grabbing women by their crotches. We liberals generally do not tolerate rogues supposedly on our side.

To liberals Donald Trump is an ethical monster. To many conservatives, President Trump is a political failure. 

I just wish that Republicans had heeded Mitt Romney. Everything that Romney said about Trump has proved true.

They'll never see that though.

I'm just glad I jumped ship long before 2016.  What a train wreck the GOP has become in just the last 4-5 years.

[The Other Castro]

Trump below 40% for the first time ever in a Rasmussen poll:

Approve - 39%
Disapprove - 61%

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jul31

[Gass3268]

Trump below 40% for the first time ever in a Rasmussen poll:

Approve - 39%
Disapprove - 61%

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jul31

Rassy is and will always be trash, but this is amusing.