Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Inmate Trump]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

In view of the extreme contempt that the President has for anything liberal and his complete lack of pragmatism that looks about as likely as a tiger converting to vegetarianism. 

The only way in which the Democrats get President Trump to sign legislation that a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress can pass is if we have a recession that forces actions contrary to the will of the President. That's the environment in which TARP was passed. ...I would not make a great deal out of a 2% swing in the Gallup polling estimate of the approval rating of the President. The typical margin of error in approval polling is about 4%.  Analysis of a 2% difference is specious except in electoral results in which even one vote can be enough to decide an electoral result. 

I'm guessing that 37% is close to his floor, and that reflects the worst that can happen when the US is not staring defeat in the face in an unpopular war, a recession is underway, or inflation is scaring people. 

You do realize trump for most of his adult life has either been a democrat or a maverick republican, correct? He has spoken favorably in the past for single payer, higher taxes on the rich, etc. Who knows how he would react with a dem house. But to say trump hates all things liberal is not the truth. Hell, just last week he included paid leave in his budget.

So then Republicans must not like him much for his economic views....must be all the racist stuff that they love him for so much.

[pbrower2a]

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

The 90's aren't coming back for the foreseeable future. Increasing polarization has been the norm from approximately 2000-onwards. The Democrats would've won in a crushing wave in 2018 to take back both the House and senate given the map for the latter. They'd have a lot of political capital at their disposal in such an environment and would spend most of their time investigating Trump's conflicts of interest and Russian connections before passing any kind of legislation. They'd be focused on 2020 and nothing else.

Also Trump isn't politically savvy enough to triangulate. I don't even think he knows what that word means.

The 1990s began with Democrats dominant in political life in Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia and with Republicans dominant in Virginia. That seems to be over.

It is far too early to predict any 'crushing wave' for Democrats in 2018. Republicans still have some cards up their sleeves. It was possible after the 2016 election for Republicans to consolidate nearly complete control of the USA with a wave that would make a bare majority in the Senate into one just short of allowing the Republican Party the ability to amend the Constitution to transform America into a dominant-party system analogous to that of the People's Republic of China... that is obviously over.   

[Person Man]

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

The 90's aren't coming back for the foreseeable future. Increasing polarization has been the norm from approximately 2000-onwards. The Democrats would've won in a crushing wave in 2018 to take back both the House and senate given the map for the latter. They'd have a lot of political capital at their disposal in such an environment and would spend most of their time investigating Trump's conflicts of interest and Russian connections before passing any kind of legislation. They'd be focused on 2020 and nothing else.

Also Trump isn't politically savvy enough to triangulate. I don't even think he knows what that word means.

The 1990s began with Democrats dominant in political life in Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia and with Republicans dominant in Virginia. That seems to be over.

It is far too early to predict any 'crushing wave' for Democrats in 2018. Republicans still have some cards up their sleeves. It was possible after the 2016 election for Republicans to consolidate nearly complete control of the USA with a wave that would make a bare majority in the Senate into one just short of allowing the Republican Party the ability to amend the Constitution to transform America into a dominant-party system analogous to that of the People's Republic of China... that is obviously over.   

It looked like the opposite thing in 2008.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup at 36-59

It's 36/58, actually.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx

A decrease and increase of 1% each in both the approvals and disapprovals compared to yesterday.

His worst ever Gallup approval/disapproval was 35/59 on March 28, shortly after AHCA had crashed and burned for the first time. So, today's approvals are Trump's second-worst Gallup numbers ever.

[Virginiá]

He never even went this low during the storm of scandals related to the Russia investigation last month. Well, actually I guess to be fair he came within a point, but still.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I suspect he could recover to 40% or so till the middle of the week, until he starts to drop again after the Comey testimony on Thursday.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think it could be fair to say he gambled on pulling of Paris wining his base but it just pissed people off

[Crumpets]

His average on RCP has remained remarkably stable since crazy week. Between May 16th and today, it hasn't left the 0.4% between 39.6% approval and 40.0% approval.

[The_Doctor]

Are any other pollsters corroborating this drop or is this just Gallup? I caution against just looking at Gallup to determine a trend. 538 is showing a slight increase in disapproval but it's not exactly out of the norm or a major swing. [55.1% disapprove, 38.9% approve]

I prefer 538 as it weights the polls.

[Gass3268]

Are any other pollsters corroborating this drop or is this just Gallup? I caution against just looking at Gallup to determine a trend. 538 is showing a slight increase in disapproval but it's not exactly out of the norm or a major swing. [55.1% disapprove, 38.9% approve]

I prefer 538 as it weights the polls.

Funny enough, Rassy showed a polling fall for Trump starting about a week before gallup.

[The_Doctor]

Are any other pollsters corroborating this drop or is this just Gallup? I caution against just looking at Gallup to determine a trend. 538 is showing a slight increase in disapproval but it's not exactly out of the norm or a major swing. [55.1% disapprove, 38.9% approve]

I prefer 538 as it weights the polls.

Funny enough, Rassy showed a polling fall for Trump starting about a week before gallup.

I don't take Rasmussen seriously or any polling average that weights it at 100%. PPP is better but still has a tiny lean left. Rasmussen is just junk. This btw is the primary issue with RCP's average. A junk and non junk poll is treated equally.

I think 538 probably captures Trump's approval rating most accurately.

[windjammer]

I believe he will end up around 30% job approval for the midterms.

[Person Man]

I believe he will end up around 30% job approval for the midterms.

The economy isn't going to save him. That's for sure!
He could become competitive again with winning a war or getting in a big enough war. We're losing in Syria, so his work is cut out for him!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If the economy starts to falter...God help Trump.

[Person Man]

My guess is that if you are above 45%, the median voter will probably hold their nose for you, but by 40% all the truly undecided voters have turned on you. By 30-35, people who voted for you will not vote for you again and by the time you are under 30, people will start peeling off bumper stickers. I don't think you can get under the high 20s.

[pbrower2a]

I believe he will end up around 30% job approval for the midterms.

Should there be any economic meltdown, then he will get to or below the 30% level of approval... point being that he shows no evidence of any idea of how to lead America out of such a meltdown. His agenda will intensify the pain and create even more instability.

The Dow was probably over a safe level when Obama was approaching the end of his Presidency, supported by really-low interest rates. 

[Mehmentum]

Are any other pollsters corroborating this drop or is this just Gallup? I caution against just looking at Gallup to determine a trend. 538 is showing a slight increase in disapproval but it's not exactly out of the norm or a major swing. [55.1% disapprove, 38.9% approve]

I prefer 538 as it weights the polls.

There haven't been any other polls released covering the days that Gallup has shown a drop in.  We just need to wait and see.

[pbrower2a]

My guess is that if you are above 45%, the median voter will probably hold their nose for you, but by 40% all the truly undecided voters have turned on you. By 30-35, people who voted for you will not vote for you again and by the time you are under 30, people will start peeling off bumper stickers. I don't think you can get under the high 20s.

51% is usually enough with which to get solidly elected, but once elected a legislator starts voting or an administrator starts administering, and as a practical matter few politicians keep their approval ratings from losing some (about 6%) from their level of the vote in the last election.

If the level of approval is in the range of 45%, then the politician usually shows why he was elected in the first place. A bit below, and things get shaky; campaigning will not be enough against the usual challenger, let alone a strong one. Around 40% approval, getting re-elected requires a combination of an unusually well-run, vigorous campaign and a weak opponent.

Far fewer people are admitting that they voted for Donald Trump. The bumper stickers are going down. Below the high twenties, we are speaking about the level of non-support that leads to coups in other countries.

[Matty]

Why are so many posters here going full zero-hedge regarding predicting future disaster for the economy? What data backs that up? Job growth has slowed a bit, but that's because we are at full employment. There is no slack in the labor market. There are not enough people actively looking for jobs right now who don't have one for there to be very high monthly job growth. When the economy is at full employment, you pay attention to wage growth and GDP growth. The most recent GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2017 (april-may-june) is 4.0%, which is a sign of a steadily improving economy. If wage growth continues to improve and gdp growth remains around 3%, it's tough to make an argument that there needs to be a rethinking for our econ policy.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why are so many posters here going full zero-hedge regarding predicting future disaster for the economy? What data backs that up? Job growth has slowed a bit, but that's because we are at full employment. There is no slack in the labor market. There are not enough people actively looking for jobs right now who don't have one for there to be very high monthly job growth. When the economy is at full employment, you pay attention to wage growth and GDP growth. The most recent GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2017 (april-may-june) is 4.0%, which is a sign of a steadily improving economy. If wage growth continues to improve and gdp growth remains around 3%, it's tough to make an argument that there needs to be a rethinking for our econ policy.

Several factors: 1) Recessions tend to come in cycles an we are due for one, 2) Trump is anti-enviormental jobs or what least prefers other job sources so we have a gov't that doesn't want to invest were the market is going, an 3) Trump's plans like tax reform so far have been half assed while WS investors want something big

[Virginiá]

I'm sure its possible we'll see a period of expansion that sets a new historic record, and it could even be this time, but averaging the time between recessions in this country shows a consistent pattern. I don't need to know why it will happen, just that its much more likely than not to happen in the next 3-4 years. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but it seems like a safe (and also unfortunate) bet.

[pbrower2a]

Why are so many posters here going full zero-hedge regarding predicting future disaster for the economy? What data backs that up? Job growth has slowed a bit, but that's because we are at full employment. There is no slack in the labor market. There are not enough people actively looking for jobs right now who don't have one for there to be very high monthly job growth. When the economy is at full employment, you pay attention to wage growth and GDP growth. The most recent GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2017 (april-may-june) is 4.0%, which is a sign of a steadily improving economy. If wage growth continues to improve and gdp growth remains around 3%, it's tough  to make an argument that there needs to be a rethinking for our econ policy.

It's still the Obama economy. Stock market valuations are high because of near-zero interest rates. People are invested in stocks in part because the reward for pure saving is non0existent. But let interest rates rise, and stock market valuations will plummet.

[Badger]

My guess is that if you are above 45%, the median voter will probably hold their nose for you, but by 40% all the truly undecided voters have turned on you. By 30-35, people who voted for you will not vote for you again and by the time you are under 30, people will start peeling off bumper stickers. I don't think you can get under the high 20s.

President Nixon hit 24% approval shortly before his resignation.

http://historyinpieces.com/research/nixon-approval-ratings

The lowest approval rating for any politician I can recall was Governor Robert Taft of Ohio whom per Wikipedia: In the wake of convictions for the ethics violations (see criminal conviction), Taft's approval rating bottomed out at 6.5 percent, according to a late November 2005 poll by Zogby, giving him quite possibly the lowest polled approval rating ever by a United States politician.[58] A SurveyUSA poll that same month gave Taft a rating of 18 percent.

Yes Zogby, ha ha whatever. But IIRC there was another poll placing him at 11% approval in 2006. That's astronomically bad.

[President Johnson]

My guess is that if you are above 45%, the median voter will probably hold their nose for you, but by 40% all the truly undecided voters have turned on you. By 30-35, people who voted for you will not vote for you again and by the time you are under 30, people will start peeling off bumper stickers. I don't think you can get under the high 20s.

President Nixon hit 24% approval shortly before his resignation.

http://historyinpieces.com/research/nixon-approval-ratings

The lowest approval rating for any politician I can recall was Governor Robert Taft of Ohio whom per Wikipedia: In the wake of convictions for the ethics violations (see criminal conviction), Taft's approval rating bottomed out at 6.5 percent, according to a late November 2005 poll by Zogby, giving him quite possibly the lowest polled approval rating ever by a United States politician.[58] A SurveyUSA poll that same month gave Taft a rating of 18 percent.

Yes Zogby, ha ha whatever. But IIRC there was another poll placing him at 11% approval in 2006. That's astronomically bad.

By the fall of 2013, Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett had one poll with 16% approval and 76% disapproval. However, he lost "only" by ten points in 2014.

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Gov. Tom Corbett approval numbers worst in F&M poll history

[Gass3268]

37% Approve (+1)
57% Disapprove (+1)