Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Hindsight was 2020]

I still think it's too early to use approval ratings to predict 2018. A year and a half is an eternity in politics. History tells us that the party out of power makes inroads and low approval ratings cost seats, but the magnitude is still up in the air.

We have examples of presidents down in the dumps coming back. In 1982, nobody thought reagan would be re-elected, and even Obama in 2011 was looking vulnerable.

Trump, of course, has unique issues. But there is a lot going on in this world. If something happens in korea, it could be a big factor.

This is true, and can work the other way as well.  In early 1991, after the conclusion of Desert Storm, GHW Bush's approval was close to 90%.  If anyone had suggested that he'd lose handily the following autumn, they'd have been laughed out of town.

In late 1994 and early 1995 right after the devastating 1994 midterm election Rush Limbaugh was gleefully starting his daily countdown clock to count the days until Bill Clinton would be swept out of office. Rush's shows would start with there are 638 days left in Bill Clinton's presidency. In 2011, Democrats could point to Clinton having a big comeback in 1995-1996, but Clinton had no recent precedent to point to.

Big difference is Trump is way more divisive then Bill if dems take house Trump should just get his resignation letter ready

[heatcharger]

UCB poll of California RVs:

Approve 28%
Disapprove 57%

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 9th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-2)

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup (June 9th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-2)

TOTALLY VINDICATED!!

[kyc0705]

Gallup (June 9th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-2)

SURGING! 2020 IS 1984!

[GeorgiaModerate]

HuffPo/YouGov, June 8-9: http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/tabsHPComeyTestimony20170608.pdf

Favorable: 37% (20 Very, 17 Somewhat)
Unfavorable: 52% (43 Very, 9 Somewhat)

Top issue: health care (45%)

Several questions about Russia and Comey, none of the numbers are good for Trump.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (+2)

Vindication REVOKED

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (+2)

Vindication REVOKED

Sad

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (+2)

Vindication REVOKED

Devindication (tm).

[ajc0918]

Will we hit 60% disapproval by the end of the week?

[Gass3268]

Will we hit 60% disapproval by the end of the week?

He's a point away from reaching his worst margin for Gallup.

[Wiz in Wis]

Trump at 36/59 in Gallup

But... Infrastructure Week!?

[Crumpets]

All time low approval/high disapproval on RCP - 38.8/55.8

[Middle-aged Europe]

Trump at 36/59 in Gallup

Vindication DENIED.

As a general rule, if you're under investigation, changing your story about every two hours makes you look guilty as hell. Trump was "totally vindicated" by Comey's testimony. Except for the parts of the testimony were Comey called Trump a liar and implied that he had committed obstruction of justice, which happened to be untrue. Despite those lies, Comey was still a "leaker", meaning that he probably had leaked lies to the public. Except that he didn't, because Trump's own son went public and announced that Comey was indeed fired because of the Russia investigation. Except that that didn't constituted obstruction of justice, for some reason. Confused yet?

[Brittain33]

March 28 : Gallup Trump JA pollling :: 1998 : data about climate change

[Crumpets]

For fun I just plugged in 538's approval ratings for every president since Truman into Excel along with the incumbent party change in seats in Congress for first-term midterms. Using the trend line formula of Gains=(2.0188*Approval)-131.02, Trump's current approval would result in roughly a net loss of 54 seats for the GOP. In order for the GOP to hold even, they'd need Trump to have an approval rating of about 65%.

[Mr. Morden]

For fun I just plugged in 538's approval ratings for every president since Truman into Excel along with the incumbent party change in seats in Congress. Using the trend line formula of Gains=(2.0188*Approval)-131.02, Trump's current approval would result in roughly a net loss of 54 seats for the GOP. In order for the GOP to hold even, they'd need Trump to have an approval rating of about 65%.

Is presidential job approval most strongly correlated with net gain/loss in # of seats, or with the total # of seats won, or with the national popular House vote, or with net change in national popular House vote since the last election?  And for that matter, is presidential job approval a better indicator than national House race polls?:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race

[Technocracy Timmy]

All time low approval/high disapproval on RCP - 38.8/55.8

All time low on 538 as well at 38-56% approval.

[Crumpets]

For fun I just plugged in 538's approval ratings for every president since Truman into Excel along with the incumbent party change in seats in Congress. Using the trend line formula of Gains=(2.0188*Approval)-131.02, Trump's current approval would result in roughly a net loss of 54 seats for the GOP. In order for the GOP to hold even, they'd need Trump to have an approval rating of about 65%.

Is presidential job approval most strongly correlated with net gain/loss in # of seats, or with the total # of seats won, or with the national popular House vote, or with net change in national popular House vote since the last election?  And for that matter, is presidential job approval a better indicator than national House race polls?:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race

At least using the very simplified method of "plug it into Excel and give it a trend line" approval is significantly more closely correlated with gains than with overall seats. The R² is 0.6168 for gains, and just 0.0478 for seats for a linear relationship.

I didn't try generic house polls, since I don't have a comprehensive list of where the polls stood for more than the past few cycles. Do you know where I could find one?

[Mr. Morden]

For fun I just plugged in 538's approval ratings for every president since Truman into Excel along with the incumbent party change in seats in Congress. Using the trend line formula of Gains=(2.0188*Approval)-131.02, Trump's current approval would result in roughly a net loss of 54 seats for the GOP. In order for the GOP to hold even, they'd need Trump to have an approval rating of about 65%.

Is presidential job approval most strongly correlated with net gain/loss in # of seats, or with the total # of seats won, or with the national popular House vote, or with net change in national popular House vote since the last election?  And for that matter, is presidential job approval a better indicator than national House race polls?:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2018-national-house-race

At least using the very simplified method of "plug it into Excel and give it a trend line" approval is significantly more closely correlated with gains than with overall seats. The R² for gains is 0.6168 for gains, and just 0.0478 for seats for a linear relationship.

I didn't try generic house polls, since I don't have a comprehensive list of where the polls stood for more than the past few cycles. Do you know where I could find one?

No, sorry, I don't know.  Though I think this is something that the 538 crew should look into.  Someone should tweet them about it, because I think it's an interesting question.

[heatcharger]

Somewhat unrelated, I wonder if 538 is going to update their pollster ratings any time soon, because some are due to be downgraded.

[Gass3268]

PPP: Trump approval 41/52

[pbrower2a]

Trump at 36/59 in Gallup

Vindication DENIED.

As a general rule, if you're under investigation, changing your story about every two hours makes you look guilty as hell. Trump was "totally vindicated" by Comey's testimony. Except for the parts of the testimony were Comey called Trump a liar and implied that he had committed obstruction of justice, which happened to be untrue. Despite those lies, Comey was still a "leaker", meaning that he probably had leaked lies to the public. Except that he didn't, because Trump's own son went public and announced that Comey was indeed fired because of the Russia investigation. Except that that didn't constituted obstruction of justice, for some reason. Confused yet?

That is how the FBI and many FBI-trained cops establish guilt. So in a homicide the 'person of interest' says "It didn't happen", "it's new to me",  "must be suicide", "self-defense", and "he deserved it anyway".  One of those five could be true, but only one of those could be true.

J. Edgar Hoover said that the one thing that marked criminals is that they are liars. To be sure, not all liars are criminals, but even without a crime, lying is easy to detect, and it shatters whatever credibility one has.

People who contradict themselves are either liars who tell what they know is false or fools who have no idea of how wrong they are.   

The truth is far simpler and easier to document or prove than is even inadvertent falsehood.

[Yank2133]

He has finally reached 60% disapproval on Gallup.

Congrats, Mr. President!

[Tintrlvr]

He has finally reached 60% disapproval on Gallup.

Congrats, Mr. President!

Gallup (6/12/17)
Approve: 36 (nc)
Disapprove: 60 (+1)