Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Gass3268]

HuffPo/AP-NORC: 35/64



(HuffPo, so take it with a grain of salt, but.)

Yeah, but it's with the AP.

[SoLongAtlas]

Not likely with TX but if he keeps sliding this might be the map.

[Badger]

Not likely with TX but if he keeps sliding this might be the map.

Could be, but I have a hard time Texas flip before Missouri, or even Montana. One thing about Montana's voting estate tend to swing harder than the national Norm against unpopular incumbents or their parties. Consider how Clinton carried it in 92 and Obama came darn close in 2008, only for the state to swing hard hard against them in the subsequent election.

[SoLongAtlas]

^ Montana is too entrenched with libertarians/conservatives to flip. That and the lack of population and big pop cities is why I still have it as R. For Missouri, HC got only 38.14% in 2016 so it is long gone for any Dem for a considerable period of time, even in a landslide. It votes like Appalachia, essentially.

[Person Man]

^ Montana is too entrenched with libertarians/conservatives to flip. That and the lack of population and big pop cities is why I still have it as R. For Missouri, HC got only 38.14% in 2016 so it is long gone for any Dem for a considerable period of time, even in a landslide. It votes like Appalachia, essentially.

There are big cities there still and I still think Missouri can pull an Indiana. Kansas City is becoming a hip young place, but its growing slowly and St.Louis is still slowly dying. So, I do see where you are coming from...

[MT Treasurer]

^ Montana is too entrenched with libertarians/conservatives to flip. That and the lack of population and big pop cities is why I still have it as R.

The most populated county in MT votes heavily R in presidential races (or at least roughly 5 points to the right of the state). But yes, MT is less likely to flip than TX in 2020. And MO and IN aren't going to flip either, for that matter.

[The Chill Moderate Republican]

How low can it go? (Very unlikely but Watergate Low)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 14th)

Approve 38% (+2)
Disapprove 57% (-2)

[OneJ]

Yeah. Trump, if I recall correctly, is still slightly popular in Montana. However, a lot can happen over the next 3 years. I'd imagine Montana would be difficult to flip for any Democrat in 2020 at this stage, but if a recession hits (depending on the size of it) then Trump should worry.

[136or142]

Yeah. Trump, if I recall correctly, is still slightly popular in Montana. However, a lot can happen over the next 3 years. I'd imagine Montana would be difficult to flip for any Democrat in 2020 at this stage, but if a recession hits (depending on the size of it) then Trump should worry.

The economy already seems to be slowing down again.  Trumpcession.

[Virginiá]

^ Montana is too entrenched with libertarians/conservatives to flip. That and the lack of population and big pop cities is why I still have it as R. For Missouri, HC got only 38.14% in 2016 so it is long gone for any Dem for a considerable period of time, even in a landslide. It votes like Appalachia, essentially.

In 2004, Bush beat Kerry in MT 59.1% - 38.6%. Granted, Bush did win the PV nationally that year, but it still shows that that margin doesn't necessarily preclude a future Democratic win there (or a narrow loss)

[Gass3268]

One thing I've noticed is Trump's approval goes through cycles:

1) He does something stupid
2) Approvals drop and Disapprovals go up
3) After a couple days the reverse happens, approval up and disapprovals down
4) He then plateaus for a while, but it never comes all the way back down to where the last big jump started.

Meaning he is permanently losing a few percentages of people every time he does something stupid.

[BlueSwan]

Meaning he is permanently losing a few percentages of people every time he does something stupid.

Well, if that was true he would have hit 0% approval in february. I do see your point and think it is generally true, but it should probably be that he loses a fraction of a percent more or less permanently whenever he does something stupid.

However, there is a hardcore base that will likely stick with him even if he rapes a kid on live TV.

[Crumpets]

HuffPo/AP-NORC: 35/64



(HuffPo, so take it with a grain of salt, but.)

Yeah, but it's with the AP.

Of course RCP isn't including it in their average.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A trend to watch:

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[Badger]

^ Montana is too entrenched with libertarians/conservatives to flip. That and the lack of population and big pop cities is why I still have it as R. For Missouri, HC got only 38.14% in 2016 so it is long gone for any Dem for a considerable period of time, even in a landslide. It votes like Appalachia, essentially.

In 2004, Bush beat Kerry in MT 59.1% - 38.6%. Granted, Bush did win the PV nationally that year, but it still shows that that margin doesn't necessarily preclude a future Democratic win there (or a narrow loss)

And in 2008 Obama lost Missouri by a fraction of a percent, and Montana buy something like 3%. If we assume states are going to maintain their Trump level voting patterns, this would be a valid argument. It's not impossible to say that Trump presents something of a realignment, but a wiser bet is that he's a general voting aberration. Yes, Missouri has been trending away from democrats for the last 20 years, where is Texas has been trending towards them for at least the last several, but it is way too early to say Texas is more ready to flip then Missouri.

Likewise, wow Texas hasn't shown much of proclivity to voting Democratic in the last 25 years, Montana in that. Has even at the federal level comma plus a notable Auntie incumbent swing. Of course Republicans are favored there, but it's at least even if not better chance than Texas to flip

[The_Doctor]

My question: is the AP's 64% disapproval and 25% disapproval among Republicans a leading indicator or an outlier? He's held steady at 55% disapprove, 38% approve the last 10 days.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 15th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

[Matty]

FWIW, trump is at 50% approval in rasmussen, which was showing him underwater recently by 10-12 points.

[Gass3268]

FWIW, trump is at 50% approval in rasmussen, which was showing him underwater recently by 10-12 points.

Rassy is and always will be a joke polling company. No polling is better than Rassy.

[Matty]

FWIW, trump is at 50% approval in rasmussen, which was showing him underwater recently by 10-12 points.

Rassy is and always will be a joke polling company. No polling is better than Rassy.

While I agree, they did nail the 2016 election with their clintn +2 final poll.

Then again, approval polls =! election polls.

[Brittain33]

Looks like Trump rarely dips below 45% approval in Rasmussen polls, and had him in the upper 50s at his inauguration.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jun16

He's had a very good 3 days in Rasmussen's samples.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

West Virginia still holding strong for Trump

Trump approval: 62/31

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Trump just cited the sh**tty lulzmussen poll that had him at 50% approval in one of his tweets today.

[Virginiá]

Trump just cited the sh**tty lulzmussen poll that had him at 50% approval in one of his tweets today.

A drowning man will grab anything that looks to be floating.