Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Tender Branson]

Even a broken clock like Rasmussen is right once ...

But the recent special elections in KS and MT have shown that Trump isn't anywhere near 50% approval right now. Support for Republicans is down by 10-15% on average compared with election night 2016 and Trump only got 46% then.

38-40% approval is more likely right now.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Got to love how freaking insecure he is and how envious he is of Obama

[BudgieForce]

Trump just tweeted

"The new Rasmussen Poll, one of the most accurate in the 2016 Election, just out with a Trump 50% Approval Rating.That's higher than O's #'s!"

Actually he is right.  Rasmussen was pretty much the most accurate pollster in the 2016 election (Clinton+2).

It is disingenuous to claim them as one of the most accurate pollsters of 2016. They were a consistent outliar in Trumps favor throughout the election. Just because they corrected themselves at the end doesnt mean there a good pollster.

[heatcharger]

He very clearly got a Scalise shooting bump, however minuscule it may be.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

He very clearly got a Scalise shooting bump, however minuscule it may be.

...thanks to The Media for blaming Bernie Sanders for the shooting.

[heatcharger]

He very clearly got a Scalise shooting bump, however minuscule it may be.

...thanks to The Media for blaming Bernie Sanders for the shooting.

I didn't see much of that. Instead, Trump got to look 'presidential' and say some nice words after a tragic event. That's enough for some people in this country.

[pbrower2a]

Even a broken clock like Rasmussen is right once ...

But the recent special elections in KS and MT have shown that Trump isn't anywhere near 50% approval right now. Support for Republicans is down by 10-15% on average compared with election night 2016 and Trump only got 46% then.

38-40% approval is more likely right now.

The biggest potential for drops in Trump (and GOP) support are in such states as Kansas and Montana which have usually seemed "Solid R". Republicans may still desire the promises of regulatory relief, tax cuts, evisceration of unions, and privatization, but much of what the President Trump does suggests "this is not what it means to be a Republican". 

The attempt on the life of Rep. Scalise could be a "rally around the Party" event; as the political heel heals,  that effect will fade.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They got some Rasmussen poll out that has Trump at 50% approval rating

[politicallefty]

I'm not responding to any poll in particular, but there is one critical point of data I've noticed. It's the relationship between strongly approve versus strongly disapprove. President Obama's approval ratings during his midterms weren't catastrophically bad. What I do remember being horrendously bad was the proportion between strongly approve versus strongly disapprove. In 2010, I can recall that number being about 2-1 negative for the President in terms of strong approval/disapproval. If Donald Trump is still President in October 2018 and his strong approval/disapproval is anything around 25/50, Congressional Republicans are going to face a historical catastrophe.

[pbrower2a]

I'm not responding to any poll in particular, but there is one critical point of data I've noticed. It's the relationship between strongly approve versus strongly disapprove. President Obama's approval ratings during his midterms weren't catastrophically bad. What I do remember being horrendously bad was the proportion between strongly approve versus strongly disapprove. In 2010, I can recall that number being about 2-1 negative for the President in terms of strong approval/disapproval. If Donald Trump is still President in October 2018 and his strong approval/disapproval is anything around 25/50, Congressional Republicans are going to face a historical catastrophe.

A mature democracy generally decides its controversies when the solution has slightly more than 50% approval. As an illustration, once support for same-sex marriage reached 53% or so, it prevailed. Leading politicians who thought it a good thing advocated it strongly.  Approval in the range of 60% might be possible in a political order in which something other than democracy had recently prevailed, as in Spain about 1980 or most countries in central and Balkan Europe in the early 1990s. In such cases there are plenty of unpopular and unworkable realities that a legislature can undo quickly through legislation.

On the one hand, people in mature democracies take much for granted -- such as that government is something other than patronage, that corruption is abnormal, and that people who have done nothing wrong are not pariahs.   

We may be casting off the maturity of democracy for something allegedly new and vibrant. We as a people have made a grievous mistake.   

[Gass3268]

Trump is back underwater with Rassy.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 18th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

[Person Man]

so much for the TRUMPSURGE

[GeorgiaModerate]

so much for the TRUMPSURGE

You know, it really makes a difference whether you split that after the P, or after the S.

[Matty]

Is there any actual point in tracking these polls daily?

[The_Doctor]

Is there any actual point in tracking these polls daily?

"

Yes. I use this as my one stop to see the latest Trump polls and to see if I should do further exploration.

[The Self]

Is there any actual point in tracking these polls daily?

Don't like it, don't read it. =[

[Matty]

No, no, no, I think these polls are important, but what I mean is this:

Nothing significant has happened in the past few days or so, so why would the polls shift?

[Virginiá]

No, no, no, I think these polls are important, but what I mean is this:

Nothing significant has happened in the past few days or so, so why would the polls shift?

I dunno, but since I check Gallup daily I'll post results here. I probably shouldn't bother checking it daily, but I'm obsessive like that.

My thoughts are that high-30s could be Trump's new baseline, as opposed to his previously low-40s baseline. That wouldn't be that unusual either - presidential approval ratings tend to trend downwards over time, and that happens with or without the added bonus of being the target of a special counsel investigating crimes by presidential aides and possible obstruction of justice by the big man himself.

[The Self]

In the case of Trump, there's probably a countervailing, contrarian trend to try to find reasons to support him, on the basis that "nobody else likes him; I can like him and so differentiate myself from All The Other Sheeple".

[Person Man]

In the case of Trump, there's probably a countervailing, contrarian trend to try to find reasons to support him, on the basis that "nobody else likes him; I can like him and so differentiate myself from All The Other Sheeple".

If his support is contrarian, that would by definition make you a Sheeple yourself far enough down the road.

PS we now just call sheeple cucks.

[Person Man]

Trump is done!

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Trump is so unpopular, the people will vote tomorrow to ALMOST do something about it.

[OneJ]

New poll: Trump underwater in Alaska:

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Lol. Alaska does have a history of bad polling (last year for example), so I do kinda wonder if Trump's disapproval is that high in such state. The same poll also has 43% disapproving of Senator Murkowski despite not voting on something like the AHCA. Why is her disapproval higher than her approval?

[pbrower2a]

New poll: Trump underwater in Alaska:

Alaska -

Trump's approval - 44/48 (-4)
Lisa Murkowski - 35/43 (-8)
Trumpcare - 29/53 (-24)
Voting intention of Murkowski to Generic D - 39/31 (+8)
If Murkowski votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 22/49 (-27)


Nevada -

Trump's approval - 44/50 (-6)
Dean Heller - 31/44 (-13)
Trumpcare - 31/51 (-20)
Voting intention of Heller to Generic D - 39/46 (-7)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 27/45 (-18)

West Virginia -

Trump's approval - 55/36 (+19)
Shelly Capito - 42/33(+9)
Trumpcare - 35/11 (-6)
Voting intention of Shelly Capito to Generic D - 48/35 (+13)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 29/36 (-7)

http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/AlaskaResults.pdf
https://www.scribd.com/document/351703448/NevadaResults-06-14-17
http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/WestVirginiaResults.pdf

....................  

First polls of any kind of Alaska and Nevada, apparently by an advocacy group -- but I understand that these polls were taken by PPP. Yes, I know that Alaska is a tough state to poll from outside the state because few pollsters can have such options as "Press '3' for Aleut" or "Press '4' for Inuit".

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-handling-of-russia-investigations-weighs-on-approval-ratings

Approve 36% (-5 since April 26)
Disapprove 57%