Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

WTF Gallup?

It's noisy.  Not surprising in a daily tracker.

[Person Man]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

WTF Gallup?

It's noisy.  Not surprising in a daily tracker.

Its become really noisy.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

WTF Gallup?

It's noisy.  Not surprising in a daily tracker.

I get that,  but its had multiple large swings this week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

WTF Gallup?

It's noisy.  Not surprising in a daily tracker.

I get that,  but its had multiple large swings this week.

He's been in a range of 36-42 for weeks.  The MoE on these polls is +/- 3%.  It's just noisier noise than usual.

[Tintrlvr]

I wonder if Gallup has made some subtle change to their methodology recently that allows them to be noisier. Ordinarily they are unusually stable compared to other pollsters.

[Person Man]

I wonder if Gallup has made some subtle change to their methodology recently that allows them to be noisier. Ordinarily they are unusually stable compared to other pollsters.

LA times and their transracial urban 19 year olds?

[Gass3268]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll:

51% Disapprove
37% Approve

[Mr. Morden]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll:

37% Disapprove
51% Approve

You have that backwards.  It's 37% approve, 51% disapprove:

white with college degree: -22
white with no college degree: +14

[Gass3268]

Vanderbilt-Tennessee:

52% Approve
42% Disapprove

Source

[Holmes]

Vanderbilt-Tennessee:

52% Approve
42% Disapprove

Source

This is from over a month ago.

[pbrower2a]

Vanderbilt-Tennessee:

52% Approve
42% Disapprove

Source

Weak, considering that Tennessee was President Trump's eighth-strongest state for getting votes. He got 60.72% of the vote there.  Maybe a d@mn-yankee plutocrat who has no cultural connection to the South, who can't communicate well in any American idiom (basically Ronald Reagan without the coherence), and who seems to hold that enriching people like he is the key to personal happiness for people who will still be broke and scared is the way to happiness for people still consigned to poverty and fear isn't such a strong appeal.  

Approval ratings nationwide seem to be gravitating to about 8% lower than his level of the vote in his 'best' states. For Governors and Senators, the usual fall-off from their winning vote totals is about 6%. Governing and legislating force pols to make choices that put some voters off. The last five Presidents to have not been Governors or Senators were Hoover, Eisenhower, Ford, the elder Bush, and now Trump. Three of the five were one-term Presidents. Eisenhower won twice in landslides (I have compared Obama to him as President for temperament and achievements, and someone who can chart the D-Day invasion could have surely had a good career in elective office had he gone that way. I also think that Barack Obama would have been a fine senior officer had he chosen a military life).

Trump is the fifth President in a century to not have been a Senator or Governor before becoming President. Hoover had at the least been a Cabinet secretary. Ford had as impressive a political career as possible without becoming a Governor or Senator before being nominated for VP -- and his campaign to be elected in 1976 showed why someone who has never won a statewide office in a statewide campaign has a hard time winning an election  against someone who has been a Governor or Senator. The elder Bush had nothing to offer but to maintain the Reagan legacy, which was good for only one election.

Add six to the approval rating of an elected Governor or Senator and you get an idea of what share of the popular vote he would get in the next election. For a President one might look at state-by-state approval ratings. I have enough of them now to suggest that President Trump would have a difficult time winning any state that he didn't get at least 54% of the vote in in 2016.  The only possible exceptions to that blanket statement are Utah (third-party nominee in 2016); I simply have no data for either Georgia or Ohio yet.

A right-wing Republican getting only 43% approval in Texas is in deep trouble. He will need an economic or diplomatic miracle, a massive change in American political culture, or large-scale electoral fraud to win in 2020. The third is much more likely with Trump as President.            

[Person Man]

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll:

37% Disapprove
51% Approve

You have that backwards.  It's 37% approve, 51% disapprove:

white with college degree: -22
white with no college degree: +14

That would be where an average president would be at this point.

[Gass3268]

Marquette-WI:

41% Approve
51% Disapprove (+4 since March)

Republicans: 85/8
Democrats: 3/95
Independents: 36/52

Approve firing Comey: 39/49
Trump cooperating or interfering with Russian investigation: 37/53

Health care reform: 6% favor keeping current law, 54% say keep & improve; 27% repeal & replace; 7% repeal & don’t replace.

Withdrawing from Paris: 34/54

57% say US should use military force to defend NATO allies if conflict with Russia occurs. 60% of Republicans, 54% of Democrats, 58% of independents say US should defend NATO allies.

Will post the source once it's up.

[Wiz in Wis]

Marquette-WI:

41% Approve
51% Disapprove (+4 since March)

This isn't even that bad for him, considering that it's Wisconsin.

the sample was 45/45/10 R/D/I in terms of Party ID.

[Gass3268]

Marquette-WI:

41% Approve
51% Disapprove (+4 since March)

This isn't even that bad for him, considering that it's Wisconsin.

the sample was 45/45/10 R/D/I in terms of Party ID.

He also said this is a shift from the 48/42 R/D they normally see.

[heatcharger]

Marquette-WI

Man, they really drag this sh*t out. I wanna see Walker and Baldwin numbers more but they release question by question, which is so slow.

[pbrower2a]

Marquette-WI:

41% Approve
51% Disapprove (+4 since March)

Republicans: 85/8
Democrats: 3/95
Independents: 36/52

Approve firing Comey: 39/49
Trump cooperating or interfering with Russian investigation: 37/53

Health care reform: 6% favor keeping current law, 54% say keep & improve; 27% repeal & replace; 7% repeal & don’t replace.

Withdrawing from Paris: 34/54

57% say US should use military force to defend NATO allies if conflict with Russia occurs. 60% of Republicans, 54% of Democrats, 58% of independents say US should defend NATO allies.

This poll suggests about a 53-47 win for a Democratic nominee for President in Wisconsin in 2020.

Tennessee -- see above.

Texas:
Trump approval: 43-51 (-8)

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/set/donald-trump-approval-june-2017

Another corroboration -- Texans seem to prefer droppings from a bovine creature to bullsh**t from a d@mnyankee poseur.  No category change, but Texas has 36 electoral votes that no Democratic nominee has won in just over forty years.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

[The_Doctor]

Trumpy's approval rating remains basically mired in the high 30s for approval, mid 50s for disapproval. Since the Ten Days of Comey in mid May his approvals seem to have settled in the higher mid 50s for disapproval instead of low 50s and high 30s instead of low 40s for approval. ||

As economic growth continues to slow down, I'm curious how this will continue to play out.

[JA]

Marquette-WI:

41% Approve
51% Disapprove (+4 since March)

This isn't even that bad for him, considering that it's Wisconsin. Also interesting:

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A Republican polling better in these areas than the Milwaukee suburbs is very unusual.

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It seems to indicate that Trump's base of support remains strong in rural areas and among Whites without a college degree, but is significantly lower than a Republican should be among suburban voters and Whites with a college degree.

[Ronnie]

Fox News (June 25 - 27):

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 50%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/06/28/fox-news-poll-june-28-2017.html

[Mr. Morden]

Fox News (June 25 - 27):

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 50%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/06/28/fox-news-poll-june-28-2017.html

From that poll:

fav/unfav %:
Melania Trump 51/28% for +23%
Mueller 30/19% for +11%
Obamacare 52/46% for +6%
Pence 47/42% for +5%
Comey 38/39% for -1%
Donald Trump 47/51% for -4%
Ryan 37/45% for -8%
Schumer 26/35% for -9%
McConnell 25/41% for -16%
Hillary Clinton 40/57% for -17%
Pelosi 33/50% for -17%

[Technocracy Timmy]

Fox News (June 25 - 27):

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 50%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/06/28/fox-news-poll-june-28-2017.html

From that poll:

fav/unfav %:
Melania Trump 51/28% for +23%
Mueller 30/19% for +11%
Obamacare 52/46% for +6%
Pence 47/42% for +5%
Comey 38/39% for -1%
Donald Trump 47/51% for -4%
Ryan 37/45% for -8%
Schumer 26/35% for -9%
McConnell 25/41% for -16%
Hillary Clinton 40/57% for -17%
Pelosi 33/50% for -17%

There's the GOP strategy for 2018.

[JA]

Fox News (June 25 - 27):

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 50%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/06/28/fox-news-poll-june-28-2017.html

From that poll:

fav/unfav %:
Melania Trump 51/28% for +23%
Mueller 30/19% for +11%
Obamacare 52/46% for +6%
Pence 47/42% for +5%
Comey 38/39% for -1%
Donald Trump 47/51% for -4%
Ryan 37/45% for -8%
Schumer 26/35% for -9%
McConnell 25/41% for -16%
Hillary Clinton 40/57% for -17%
Pelosi 33/50% for -17%

There's the GOP strategy for 2018.

Unfortunately, that's true. All they have to do is role out the "s/he'll be a tool to advance the Pelosi agenda" and any Democrat in a swing or lean-R district will be negatively affected. The best thing Democrats could possibly do is change up their leadership, which has presided over the collapse of the Democratic Party to 1920s levels.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Just because that worked in one SE doesn't mean it will work in a midterm over a year from now