Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[hopper]

It is hard to defend failure. Legislative failure, moral failure, and diplomatic failure already mark this administration. It is only a matter of time before the Obama bull market comes to an end; I doubt that with his inadequate preparation for the Presidency he will have a clue if the economy starts to go bad. His ideology would make things worse.

The only thing Trump has done well in his presidency thus far is in the foreign policy arena.

[hopper]

actually, his whites approval are way below what a normal Republican would see. He won whites by 21%, and he's down to a 6% approval among whites. Even the GOP's white polarization strategy isn't able to overcome the deficits at this point.

Whites aren't a monolithic voting group though.

[hopper]

The most recent polling (CBS, Pew, Gallup) all seem to roughly correlate with 538's general pattern of 55% disapproval, 38% approve. I trust Pew's breakdown and it roughly shows the fastest growing segments of the electorate disapproving of Trump and the least fast approving of Trump. (the less educated, white voters).

You'll notice the 18-49 group roughly voted for Clinton as a cohort and post-grads and college grads (a rising segment of the cohort) are disapproving of Trump with heavy margins. Ditto Latinos and African Americans. They're the big reason he's all underwater. And they're all heavy Democratic groups.

Trump is basically underwater by the fastest growing segments of the electorate while the slowest growing segments are backing him.

No College Grads only voted for Hillary 49-45% according to the 2016 Presidential Election Page on Wikipedia. They aren't a big Dem voting group like Non-Whites are.

[hopper]

I guess these things happen when The Media supports everything you do.

The Media doesn't like Trump. Most members of the media are Democrats.

[The_Doctor]

actually, his whites approval are way below what a normal Republican would see. He won whites by 21%, and he's down to a 6% approval among whites. Even the GOP's white polarization strategy isn't able to overcome the deficits at this point.

Whites aren't a monolithic voting group though.

Yes, I agree. 35-40% of whites will always vote Democratic. I was just saying the traditional GOP advantage among whites isn't working out right now and that Trump's white polarization strategy isn't going to be enough, since 35-40% of whites vote Democratic.

The most recent polling (CBS, Pew, Gallup) all seem to roughly correlate with 538's general pattern of 55% disapproval, 38% approve. I trust Pew's breakdown and it roughly shows the fastest growing segments of the electorate disapproving of Trump and the least fast approving of Trump. (the less educated, white voters).

You'll notice the 18-49 group roughly voted for Clinton as a cohort and post-grads and college grads (a rising segment of the cohort) are disapproving of Trump with heavy margins. Ditto Latinos and African Americans. They're the big reason he's all underwater. And they're all heavy Democratic groups.

Trump is basically underwater by the fastest growing segments of the electorate while the slowest growing segments are backing him.

No College Grads only voted for Hillary 49-45% according to the 2016 Presidential Election Page on Wikipedia. They aren't a big Dem voting group like Non-Whites are.

No, college graduates voted Clinton overall. It's the white college graduates that voted 48-45% Trump. College graduates overall voted Clinton 52-42%. They're an expanding bloc of the electorate and they trend Democratic. (Particularly because education is correlated with partisanship; lower education and whiter = more Republican, higher education regardless of race makes you more Democratic).

[hopper]

actually, his whites approval are way below what a normal Republican would see. He won whites by 21%, and he's down to a 6% approval among whites. Even the GOP's white polarization strategy isn't able to overcome the deficits at this point.

Whites aren't a monolithic voting group though.

Yes, I agree. 35-40% of whites will always vote Democratic. I was just saying the traditional GOP advantage among whites isn't working out right now and that Trump's white polarization strategy isn't going to be enough, since 35-40% of whites vote Democratic.

The most recent polling (CBS, Pew, Gallup) all seem to roughly correlate with 538's general pattern of 55% disapproval, 38% approve. I trust Pew's breakdown and it roughly shows the fastest growing segments of the electorate disapproving of Trump and the least fast approving of Trump. (the less educated, white voters).

You'll notice the 18-49 group roughly voted for Clinton as a cohort and post-grads and college grads (a rising segment of the cohort) are disapproving of Trump with heavy margins. Ditto Latinos and African Americans. They're the big reason he's all underwater. And they're all heavy Democratic groups.

Trump is basically underwater by the fastest growing segments of the electorate while the slowest growing segments are backing him.

No College Grads only voted for Hillary 49-45% according to the 2016 Presidential Election Page on Wikipedia. They aren't a big Dem voting group like Non-Whites are.

No, college graduates voted Clinton overall. It's the white college graduates that voted 48-45% Trump. College graduates overall voted Clinton 52-42%. They're an expanding bloc of the electorate and they trend Democratic. (Particularly because education is correlated with partisanship; lower education and whiter = more Republican, higher education regardless of race makes you more Democratic).

I said College Grads overall voted for Hillary 49-45% according to the "2016 Presidential Election Page" on Wikipedia. College Grads overall didn't vote for Hillary in the margins that Non-White Voters did.

[Brittain33]

I guess these things happen when The Media supports everything you do.

The Media doesn't like Trump. Most members of the media are Democrats.

The member of the media Trump is feuding with now was once a Republican congressman.

[TheSaint250]

I guess these things happen when The Media supports everything you do.

The Media doesn't like Trump. Most members of the media are Democrats.

The member of the media Trump is feuding with now was once a Republican congressman.

To Hopper's credit, he said most.

[Mr. Morden]

I said College Grads overall voted for Hillary 49-45% according to the "2016 Presidential Election Page" on Wikipedia. College Grads overall didn't vote for Hillary in the margins that Non-White Voters did.

49-45% is the margin for college graduates who don't also have a post-graduate degree.  College graduates overall voted Clinton 52% Trump 42%:

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls

[Badger]

I guess these things happen when The Media supports everything you do.

The Media doesn't like Trump. Most members of the media are Democrats.

Yes, billionaires who are owners or majority shareholders in media companies are notoriously liberal Democrats.

If the media reports on a team that hasn't scored a run all year as having a lousy offense, do they have a bias against the local team or are they just reporting a disaster in the making? Now apply that to the presidency and get it through your skull that he is a walking dumpster fire on every conceivable level. He is indefensible. For anyone with common sense of a toad that is. Join the club of those who surpass that level.

Your whining about the media is pathetic, tired, and baseless. Grow up.

And that's directed it pretty much a third of the Forum, not just Hopper.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Are there any polls of what percent of Americans actually think Trump is mentally stable?

Unfortunately, no.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Looking at his 538 average, Trump has stabilized at 39% for the last 5 and a half weeks.

^ I think this is important to remember in the context of this thread. The economy plus polarization appears to have stabilized Trump at this level thus far in spite of the dips he's gotten from Comey/Russia/DumbWatergate. The economy and the continued strategy of hyperpolarisation are gonna be key to 2018 and 2020.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 1st)

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

[windjammer]

Gallup (July 1st)

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

He's in the high 30's low 40's for quite a while.

[Person Man]

Gallup (July 1st)

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

He's in the high 30's low 40's for quite a while.

This is pretty much where W was until the economy finally gave out. Once you start getting near freezing,  that's pretty much the end. He may be able to win reelection if he gets a historically weak challenger, but Republicans will face significant electoral loses (by "significant" I mean the Democrats gail tge ability to check Trump on thier own). If he gets to that freezing mark, he's done. Period.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Mostly the economy. One shouldn't expect a president's base to desert him so quick in his presidency anyway, so I think pointing to "polarization" as a strategy is kinda pointless.

It isn't pointless at all. See Handel's strategy in GA-06.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 2nd)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

[JA]

Gallup (July 2nd)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

Seems his Twitter feuds have had no net negative impact and, if anything, have improved his numbers.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (July 2nd)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

Seems his Twitter feuds have had no net negative impact and, if anything, have improved his numbers.

Dont read too much into the daily fluctuations of a tracking poll.

[MT Treasurer]

PPP for Save My Care (D):

Colorado: 40/56 (-16)
North Carolina: 46/50 (-4)
Iowa: 46/49 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP for Save My Care (D):

Colorado: 40/56 (-16)
North Carolina: 46/50 (-4)
Iowa: 46/49 (-3)

Comparing those results to the election:

CO was T-5 now -16 delta -11
NC was T+4 now -4 delta -8
IA was T+9 now -3 delta -12

Before anyone jumps on me: I realize that comparing election results to approval ratings is apples vs. oranges.  But I thought it was kind of interesting that the differences are in the same ballpark.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup (July 2nd)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

Consistent with President Trump doing  much less well in 2020 than in 2016.

PPP for Save My Care (D):

Colorado: 40/56 (-16)
North Carolina: 46/50 (-4)
Iowa: 46/49 (-3)

PPP for a liberal advocacy group. Iowa reverts to swing-state status., and Colorado is out of reach for him. 

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

More telling may be disapproval ratings. Some of these are favorability ratings, which will get an asterisk.

Disapproval ratings:

CO 56
NM  50
IA  49
NH 60
TN 42
WI 51
TX 51
VA 57
NY 56 (excellent-good-fair-poor... I will take an earlier poll with a purer approval/disapproval divide)
Alaska 48
NV 50
WV 36
NJ 66
CA 57
MI 61 (negative job rating)
NY 67
UT 55
OK 36 (favorability)
PA 62
MN 51
WA 56
AR 39
MT 42
FL  51`
SC 47
MD 64
AZ 49 (favorability)
MA (over 60 based upon a composite)

Map for this theme:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

* favorability

[JA]

If Trump's current disapproval ratings in each of the states listed are any indication of his 2020 performance, he'll be absolutely destroyed in the Northeast. The West isn't looking too good for him either. I'm curious how he'll perform in Utah; no doubt he'll win it, but by how much? And the fact that Alaska, Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Texas, and Wisconsin have an effectively equal disapproval of Trump is very interesting.

[Mr. Morden]

If Trump's current disapproval ratings in each of the states listed are any indication of his 2020 performance, he'll be absolutely destroyed in the Northeast.  The West isn't looking too good for him either.

The thing is, his favorability rating was already underwater in most of those states back in November (in many cases by more than it is now), yet he won the election anyway.  So really it comes down to the question of how much more of a factor is job approval rating as an incumbent president vs. favorability rating for a challenger.

There's also the question of whether major party presidential nominees with underwater favorability #s is now the "new normal", meaning that we can expect the 2020 Dem. nominee to be unpopular as well.  Even someone like Joe Biden, who's popular right now, could end up becoming unpopular once he wins the Dem. nomination for president, since he'd suddenly become the target of the GOP attack machine, and many GOP-leaning voters who are currently indifferent towards him would instantly discover reasons to hate him.