Trump approval ratings thread 1.1
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heatcharger
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« Reply #675 on: July 16, 2017, 11:25:18 AM »

Trump's blowing it like Obama in getting a full agenda through.

The difference is Obama actually got things passed with his party in control of both chambers.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #676 on: July 16, 2017, 11:37:30 AM »

Trump's blowing it like Obama in getting a full agenda through.  Trump and Obama might end up in the same position where they hardly get through their campaign promises before the rival party takes control of one house or both houses of Congress and then the next 2-6 are a big screaming match.

Except --

1. The Obama administration was scandal-free.
2. President Trump at this stage gets far-worse polling results than did Obama.
3. Trump's opposition is more sophisticated in messaging.
4. Obama won both the Electoral College in a near-landslide and a majority of the vote.He could lose more support and still win in 2016. A shift of 1% from R to D in the popular vote wins the Presidency for a Democrat.  
5. Trump has consistently vilified those who voted against him, which is not a way of gaining support.
6. Obama did have some early legislative successes.

I doubt that Democrats can win the Senate in 2018 barring an unlikely redo of 2016 elections. There are just too few suitable targets for Democrats and too many obvious targets of Democrats. Considering that nobody can assure us that there will be no foreign hacking of results, I could expect Democratic losses in the Senate.

2016 was not a 'free and fair election'. Honest elections generally do not follow tainted elections; the winners of tainted elections know that those elections are tainted and have cause to cheat in the next one. Considering that the GOP in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin likes the 2016 result  and wants to 'keep up the good work' of transforming America into a [pure plutocracy, we cannot expect integrity in the 2018 election. Or for that matter 2020. The rules have changed, all to the benefit of people who believe that no human suffering is ever in excess so long as it gets a bigger profit and indulges the collectors of such profit to indulge themselves more fully.

The money is behind president Trump, and in view of 2016 we must assume that what the money wants is what will win until we see otherwise.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #677 on: July 16, 2017, 12:51:41 PM »

Trump's blowing it like Obama in getting a full agenda through.  Trump and Obama might end up in the same position where they hardly get through their campaign promises before the rival party takes control of one house or both houses of Congress and then the next 2-6 are a big screaming match.

lol at this sad attempt of both sides.

The 111th congress was the most productive congress since the mid-1960s. Obama disappointed in some areas, but he got a ton of **** done and no president of the last 30-35 years really compares when it comes to legislative achievements.



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Virginiá
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« Reply #678 on: July 16, 2017, 12:54:13 PM »

Gallup (July 15th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-1)
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Virginiá
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« Reply #679 on: July 16, 2017, 03:50:57 PM »

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-abc-washington-post-poll-historic-low-approval-ratings


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/886588838902206464 Sad

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Good to see the goalposts are being shifted already. And the ABC/WaPo tracking poll had Clinton at +3 in their last poll. That is pretty accurate. More fake news from Trump Tongue
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #680 on: July 16, 2017, 03:53:46 PM »

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-abc-washington-post-poll-historic-low-approval-ratings


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/886588838902206464 Sad

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Good to see the goalposts are being shifted already. And the ABC/WaPo tracking poll had Clinton at +3 in their last poll. That is pretty accurate. More fake news from Trump Tongue

"Not bad at this time".  I wonder when he thinks it would be bad.  This is the lowest 6-month rating for a President since, well, ever.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #681 on: July 16, 2017, 07:37:06 PM »

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-abc-washington-post-poll-historic-low-approval-ratings


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/886588838902206464 Sad

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Good to see the goalposts are being shifted already. And the ABC/WaPo tracking poll had Clinton at +3 in their last poll. That is pretty accurate. More fake news from Trump Tongue

Is he seriously trying to spin 40% into something good?
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #682 on: July 16, 2017, 08:13:47 PM »


Do you know where to find a full release for the poll?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #683 on: July 16, 2017, 10:33:00 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2017, 10:47:31 PM by pbrower2a »

Iowa -- Selzer, Des Moines Register:

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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/07/17/iowa-poll-independents-sour-trump-disapproval-rating-tops-50-percent/480236001/

Selzer is one of the best pollsters in the business. It's one state and one electorally-small, but the 'gain' in disapproval for the President suggests that Iowa could be out of reach for the president in 2020.  Other Republicans do fine, so the problem is Donald Trump.

This poll suggests that the President has not pulled the Midwest permanently into the clutches of the Republican Party. Iowa and Wisconsin usually vote in tandem.

Don't be surprised if I modify this polling map to add other statewide polls.  

Come on, Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, and Ohio!

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  





Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

More telling may be disapproval ratings. Some of these are favorability ratings, which will get an asterisk.

Disapproval ratings:

Map for this theme:



navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

* favorability

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #684 on: July 17, 2017, 05:56:20 AM »

Bloomberg, July 8-12, 1001 adults (MOE 3.1%)

Approve 40%
Disapprove 56%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-17/americans-feel-good-about-the-economy-not-so-good-about-trump-j57v0var

Details at https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r_gKveTVWIpc/v0

Trump favorable/unfavorable at 41/55 (-14); he was +7 in December.

Right track/wrong direction is 32/61 (-29); it was -12 in December.
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American2020
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« Reply #685 on: July 17, 2017, 09:44:02 AM »

Iowa -- Selzer, Des Moines Register:

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http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2017/07/17/iowa-poll-independents-sour-trump-disapproval-rating-tops-50-percent/480236001/

Selzer is one of the best pollsters in the business. It's one state and one electorally-small, but the 'gain' in disapproval for the President suggests that Iowa could be out of reach for the president in 2020.  Other Republicans do fine, so the problem is Donald Trump.

This poll suggests that the President has not pulled the Midwest permanently into the clutches of the Republican Party. Iowa and Wisconsin usually vote in tandem.

Don't be surprised if I modify this polling map to add other statewide polls.  

Come on, Arizona, Connecticut, Georgia, Indiana, and Ohio!

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  





Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.

More telling may be disapproval ratings. Some of these are favorability ratings, which will get an asterisk.

Disapproval ratings:

Map for this theme:



navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

* favorability

Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  
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American2020
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« Reply #686 on: July 17, 2017, 09:47:31 AM »

Once again, his base is shrinking.

Trump’s Approval Stands at 50 Percent in the Counties That Fueled His Win.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-standing-takes-hit-even-places-he-won-2016-n783611
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #687 on: July 17, 2017, 11:02:25 AM »

Is there any other time other than war or recession where a Presidential approval rating has been so low?

Well, we are at war right now, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc.  Post-9/11, the war never ends.  Tongue
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #688 on: July 17, 2017, 11:48:16 AM »

Is there any other time other than war or recession where a Presidential approval rating has been so low?

Well, we are at war right now, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc.  Post-9/11, the war never ends.  Tongue


Heh, true, but you get what I mean. I remember Clinton's first months were rocky because of DADT and a number of missteps but nothing like this. That's the closest parallel I can think of right now. It might be the worst opening months to a presidential administration since… well, forever? I wasn't alive for Ford or Carter.

This is with a *good* economy and 4.4% unemployment. It says a lot that his missteps have cost him about 10-15% of support that would normally go to a new president with a solid economy.

(Relatively solid; wage growth is relatively stagnant but you get the idea).

Ford started out OK, but his approval nosedived after his pardon of Nixon, which was a very divisive action.  (At the time I was among those unhappy with it, but over time I've gained some sympathy for the view that it was best to put the whole thing behind the country and move on.  I'm still not completely convinced of that, though.)  Carter also started out OK in approvals, but the economic problems during his term plus the Iranian hostage crisis caused him to become very unpopular.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #689 on: July 17, 2017, 12:11:07 PM »

I guess this here is also a fake poll, right, Mr. President? But I forgot, you don't want the be presidential, but MODERN PRESIDENTIAL. Too bad the fraud media didn't ask about that term. Sad!



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Virginiá
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« Reply #690 on: July 17, 2017, 12:20:41 PM »

Gallup (July 16th)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #691 on: July 17, 2017, 12:25:31 PM »

Monmouth, July 13-16, 800 adults (MOE 3.5%)  

Approve 39% (no change from May)
Disapprove 52% (-1)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NJ_071717/

Impeachment is 41/53/6 yes/no/unsure.
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emailking
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« Reply #692 on: July 17, 2017, 12:45:43 PM »

I remember back during the primaries (when people were still predicting his numbers would collapse) a Monmouth poll had him up big in New Hampshire and he pointed out how it was Monmouth that had him up and that it was a very well respected poll.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #693 on: July 17, 2017, 01:03:05 PM »

Is there any other time other than war or recession where a Presidential approval rating has been so low?

Well, we are at war right now, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc.  Post-9/11, the war never ends.  Tongue


Heh, true, but you get what I mean. I remember Clinton's first months were rocky because of DADT and a number of missteps but nothing like this.

According to this:

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/01/12/presidential-job-approval-ratings-from-ike-to-obama/



Clinton's job approval bottomed out at 38% in October 1994, when there was no war or recession going on.  Also, I think some of the doldrums for Ford and Carter occurred at times when there was no actual recession (I don't remember the exact timing of the 70s recessions), though the economy was definitely in bad shape with out of control inflation and the like.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #694 on: July 17, 2017, 07:08:09 PM »

Look, I know it's hard for incumbents to actually lose reelection but is Trump really more than likely to do so seeing he has a 55% disapproval in a state like Utah?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #695 on: July 17, 2017, 07:11:40 PM »

Look, I know it's hard for incumbents to actually lose reelection but is Trump really more than likely to do so seeing he has a 55% disapproval in a state like Utah?

Just to nitpick - Trump is uniquely unsuited for a state like Utah, and even with such a poor image among Mormons, he still did quite well. However, if by October 2020 he had the same approval ratings he does now and was up against a challenger that was about as popular as the average challenger would be, then he most likely would lose, and probably not by a hair either. In an election where his opponent wasn't almost as hated as he was, his "win" most likely would have been a loss with a margin in between Romney and McCain.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #696 on: July 17, 2017, 07:19:02 PM »

Look, I know it's hard for incumbents to actually lose reelection but is Trump really more than likely to do so seeing he has a 55% disapproval in a state like Utah?

It's not that hard.  In the modern era (defined as elections I remember Wink ) there have been seven incumbent Presidents running for reelection.  Two of the seven lost (Carter and Bush I).  That means it's not terribly unlikely.

If Trump ran again with his current approval ratings, against a candidate without Clinton's baggage, he'd get crushed.  One telling metric is that one of the recent national polls showed that in the counties he flipped from Obama, his current approval rating is in the low 40's.

Maybe his ratings will recover; it's a long time until 2020.  Maybe the Democrats will run another awful candidate; there's no telling.  Trump needs both to be reelected.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #697 on: July 17, 2017, 07:41:31 PM »

Once again, his base is shrinking.

Trump’s Approval Stands at 50 Percent in the Counties That Fueled His Win.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-s-standing-takes-hit-even-places-he-won-2016-n783611


The working class voters are starting to abandon him. They've finally realized a man who has been fed with a silver spoon his entire life and paints his walls with gold never cared about them, their family, or their future.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #698 on: July 17, 2017, 08:32:00 PM »

Look, I know it's hard for incumbents to actually lose reelection but is Trump really more than likely to do so seeing he has a 55% disapproval in a state like Utah?

Just to nitpick - Trump is uniquely unsuited for a state like Utah, and even with such a poor image among Mormons, he still did quite well. However, if by October 2020 he had the same approval ratings he does now and was up against a challenger that was about as popular as the average challenger would be, then he most likely would lose, and probably not by a hair either. In an election where his opponent wasn't almost as hated as he was, his "win" most likely would have been a loss with a margin in between Romney and McCain.

If he were to have today's job approval rating on Election Day 2020, then yes, he'd presumably lose.  But I don't think the historical record shows that there's any correlation between job approval rating in a president's first year and his job approval rating three years later.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #699 on: July 17, 2017, 09:43:25 PM »

If he were to have today's job approval rating on Election Day 2020, then yes, he'd presumably lose.  But I don't think the historical record shows that there's any correlation between job approval rating in a president's first year and his job approval rating three years later.

Oh, probably not. I didn't mean to imply that, although I would state that I really don't think things are going to get better for him. Trump isn't that kind of person - the kind of person to take advice and follow it to the letter, to change his behavior and make amends with people and really go out of his way to hit all the right notes. He's dug such a deep hole for himself, what with Mueller and all, that I'm not sure if he can climb out of it. A lot of his perception problems are born from scandals like the Access Hollywood tape, which isn't something he can really talk himself out of with certain demographics.

His best bet is to try and draw a weak opponent that he can tar and feather and bring down to his level in terms of favorables/etc. Even that depends on the economy remaining stable, which is not a given, at least if you go by historical trends. America will basically need to set a new record in longest expansion in history for him to escape a downturn before reelection.
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