Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Santander]

Or we could just take this nonsensical debate out of this thread and let ReaganFan live his miserable life the way he wants. If he wants to be openly racist, let him. He's certainly not going to get anywhere in life with those out in the open views

Yes, I never understood why people get so outraged when they perceive someone is being "racist". Who cares?

[Reaganfan]

Or we could just take this nonsensical debate out of this thread and let ReaganFan live his miserable life the way he wants. If he wants to be openly racist, let him. He's certainly not going to get anywhere in life with those out in the open views

Yes, I never understood why people get so outraged when they perceive someone is being "racist". Who cares?

I don't even think I mentioned race once today. They're crazy.

[Brittain33]

Can we get back on-topic?

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 26th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 55% (-3)

[The Dowager Mod]

Or we could just take this nonsensical debate out of this thread and let ReaganFan live his miserable life the way he wants. If he wants to be openly racist, let him. He's certainly not going to get anywhere in life with those out in the open views

Yes, I never understood why people get so outraged when they perceive someone is being "racist". Who cares?

I don't even think I mentioned race once today. They're crazy.

Stop derailing threads, This will be your only warning from me.

[Gass3268]

PPP - Nevada:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Source

Heller's numbers are awful: 29/56

[Matty]

PPP - Nevada:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Source

Heller's numbers are awful: 29/56

Ok, is something wrong with PPP's approval/disapproval model? They consistently find trump more popular than senators.

[pbrower2a]

I do see liberalism, socialism and globalism as significant threats. Trump's election was a very critical roadblock to holding back the collar of globalism which is extremely detrimental to America at it's finest.

The founding of the United States was an expression of the liberalism of the finest minds of the Enlightenment except for one thing: their acquiescence in slavery. Liberalism meant that government was responsible to the People, and the intellectual and moral currents of the time led to the inevitable abolition of a great blot on America. Lincoln would free the slaves in the name of a liberal philosophy. Industrialization would take place, and capitalists often held the idea that to get the fastest growth they would need the right to sweat workers as severely as possible to create the capital that underpins business. But working people decided that liberalism meant that they too were human and that they too had rights. Government responsible to the People would be responsible as much to toilers as to business owners. Governments expanded the franchise from property owners to men with nothing as well. The long heritage of female subordination to men from antiquity ensured that women would have no say in how their husbands spent the money. Men often got their paychecks, cashed them at a bar whose side rooms were gambling dens and whose upper floor was for all practical purposes a whorehouse, and left drunk and broke. Women would get the vote and support prohibition and the outlawry of most gambling. Maybe Prohibition went too far, but the clampdown on vice generally remained intact.  

Have there been repudiations of liberalism? Sure. Technically, Marxism-Leninism offered itself as  the definitive expression of liberal process. It degenerated quickly into fanaticism, a sham of democracy, and in the end despotism by a Party Boss. But liberals caught on. Fascism became the glorification of the Nation and the dominant people and the elevation of the Leader of the Movement to a god-like status, with any alternative view to be suppressed. Nazism -- if Mussolini was a vicious dog, then Hitler was a reckless tiger. The 1915 Klan? Fascism with a pretense of being American, but clearly for white Protestants only, at least as it was before it disintegrated and eventually died. But the arguments against Nazism, Fascism, and the thug order in Japan were liberal arguments. Liberals had something to fight for -- freedom -- that fascists did not have.

I can discuss our latest significant recognition of freedom in America, but that would take some time. The arguments against Saddam Hussein and ISIS are liberal arguments. There is nothing wrong with Islam that liberal democracy cannot correct, just as was so with the Buddhist-Shinto hybrid in Japan -- or our Judeo-Christian culture.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

We love our country enough to want to reform it into something better. Liberalism is not a static ideology. I could easily make the case that I would have been better off  being born and raised in any of the countries in which I have ancestors living after about 1600 because the medical-care system would have caught the Asperger's that has crippled my life. That includes the UK, Ireland, France, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.  That includes East Germany, where living conditions would have been more spartan and politics much more repressive.

The ideology of Donald Trump is the celebration of his personality and the interests of his class above all else... Donald Trump makes me wish that I were something other than an America because our freedoms are eroding and government is becoming more responsive to well-connected people instead of to people unlike him. The economic progress of our time has taken away some of the once-easy ways to make a living, namely the meeting of shortages. I trust our armed forces with my God-given human rights (or rights inherent in my humanity as in some formulations) more than I trust a narcissistic twerp with a despotic streak  and a disdain for anyone who voted against him or refuses to go along with him 100% all the time. The man on the $20 bill was responsible for the Trail of Tears. I do not need ancestry among First Peoples to see the Trail of Tears as an abomination. Second Amendment? Since Donald Trump became our dictator I have come to recognize that a mono[poly on the possession of firearms by one side of the political spectrum is a bad idea. (For protection, I'd rather have a Rottweiler or Doberman who makes my abode as dangerous to a burglar as the Sunderbans, a swamp infested with man-eating tigers.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No, I was thinking of burning a Confederate flag, a hammer-and-sickle flag, a Nazi flag, and a Trump banner together while waving an American flag kept safely out of the flames.  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

America is much more than Donald Trump. I could accept self-proclaimed conservatives stating that America was much more than Barack Obama. So why can't you accept my assertion that Donald Trump is the worst thing to have happened to American politics since the 1915 Klan?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It is unfortunate that you did not avail yourself better of the universal education that became an objective of liberal ideology.  

[pbrower2a]

Former President (and Governor of California about fifty years ago) Ronald Reagan must be rolling over in his grave.

PPIC - California:

Approve 25%
Disapprove 71%

Only 68% of California Republicans and 33% of Independents approve of Trump.

Source

neighboring Nevada (PPP):

PPP - Nevada:

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

Source

Heller's numbers are awful: 29/56

Donald Trump must remind many Californians of their landlords, arguably the least-beloved of entrepreneurs to middle-class people. But this may be the first statewide poll in the wake of the 'self-pardon' talk.  If this is not a fluke, then any new polls of such states as Connecticut, Illinois, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington could be going into the 'deep red' category.

This "71" is so far the highest disapproval that I have seen of the President in any state, tying the Gallup composite from January to July in Vermont. I'm not sure that a current poll of Vermont would be any better for the President Trump. But Vermont gets polled little... three electoral votes and dull politics is less interesting than 55 electoral votes and dull politics.

For one of the usual battleground states, Nevada gets polled rather little. Remember: this poll is newer than a reasonable estimate of the Gallup composite that averages (as I understand) from April.  Most polls (barring favorability polls, polls by special interests, internal polls, and polls with the suspect "electric green fried potatoes" wording will supplant the Gallup composites which are older and of declining relevance. I am no longer using the excuse 'Beggars can't be choosers' to accept just about any poll. The Nevada poll is not a category-changer. It is still consistent with Trump losing about 3% support since April, which is still within the range of error.  

Nevada, although extremely urban, is a low-income state with lower-than-average educational achievement, so it should be more amenable to President Trump than such states as Colorado and Virginia. But Trump is doing badly in Nevada.    

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Or we could just take this nonsensical debate out of this thread and let ReaganFan live his miserable life the way he wants. If he wants to be openly racist, let him. He's certainly not going to get anywhere in life with those out in the open views

Yes, I never understood why people get so outraged when they perceive someone is being "racist". Who cares?

I don't even think I mentioned race once today. They're crazy.

Stop derailing threads, This will be your only warning from me.

In all fairness he's not alone. 

[NOVA Green]

I couldn't find the figures for the city of Los Angeles, but considering it's substantially smaller and no more Democrat friendly then New York, it's inconceivable that trumps still doesn't lose the National popular vote by at least close to a million votes.

Some quick napkin calculations suggest that Clinton's PV margin in Los Angeles proper is somewhere between 700-800k votes.

You have a pretty good napkin!!!!

City of LA:

Clinton: 1,017,038 ---    Trump: 212,080        Margin 804, 958

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

[Badger]

I couldn't find the figures for the city of Los Angeles, but considering it's substantially smaller and no more Democrat friendly then New York, it's inconceivable that trumps still doesn't lose the National popular vote by at least close to a million votes.

Some quick napkin calculations suggest that Clinton's PV margin in Los Angeles proper is somewhere between 700-800k votes.

You have a pretty good napkin!!!!

City of LA:

Clinton: 1,017,038 ---    Trump: 212,080        Margin 804, 958

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

Impressive as always Griffin.

Does anyone have the numbers for Chicago? It's probably enough for Trump to get over the remaining seven hundred thousand or so vote deficit, but if not it'd be hysterical to see naso have to explain how Houston doesn't represent real America either.

[Mike Thick]

Chicago was Clinton 912,943 - 135,317. Margin of 777,626.

[Badger]

Chicago was Clinton 912,943 - 135,317. Margin of 777,626.

Thanks Ted. So that combined with LA and NYC accounts for a Hillary margin of just under 3.1 million, we're as her National popular vote margin was just short of 2.9 Million.

Okay, I guess naso made it official, without the grossly an American cities of New York and la, which is exactly what no one thinks of when they think of America plus that completely in American city of Chicago Trump would have won the popular vote by a hair.

From naso's to put it mildly skewed Viewpoint, I can get where his prejudices and bubble View lead him to consider New York City and LA to be not real America. But where the hell does that come into Chicago? Midwestern big city of big shoulders? Surely even he can't a trivia more than a drop in the bucket of that 700000 + city wide margin to vote fraud which it's something that largely hasn't occurred since the 70s? What could it possibly be it makes Chicago so non-typical America for naso? 

Oh, now I remember. Ni##ers.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 27th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 54% (-1)

[ProudModerate2]

Gallup (July 27th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 54% (-1)

Recently, there have been strange rollercoaster-like swings.

[Person Man]

Gallup (July 27th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 54% (-1)

Recently, there have been strange rollercoaster-like swings.

Noise. I doubt we see any major drop in his support for a while unless there's a recession. Conversely, I really doubt he has any ability to significantly increase his support outside of a 9/11 level event.

Especially with the agenda stalled.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Gallup (July 27th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 54% (-1)

Recently, there have been strange rollercoaster-like swings.

Noise. I doubt we see any major drop in his support for a while unless there's a recession. Conversely, I really doubt he has any ability to significantly increase his support outside of a 9/11 level event.

I think a disaster of some sort could hurt his support as well. Look at what Katrina did to W, and then imagine an even worse response with utterly tone-deaf PR from the White House.

[Virginiá]

Noise. I doubt we see any major drop in his support for a while unless there's a recession. Conversely, I really doubt he has any ability to significantly increase his support outside of a 9/11 level event.

What would you say the time span between noise and actual, notable movement is? I'd say about 5-6 days. That way we are almost/entirely through 2 full cycles of their rolling average.

I'd also note how hard it seems to be for Trump to realize 40% or more approval rates. His disapprove numbers seem to fall more readily then his approves can rise.

[Gass3268]

When McCain left the floor before the vote, he went to take a call from Trump

He was unable to change his mind.

[Adam Griffin]

I couldn't find the figures for the city of Los Angeles, but considering it's substantially smaller and no more Democrat friendly then New York, it's inconceivable that trumps still doesn't lose the National popular vote by at least close to a million votes.

Some quick napkin calculations suggest that Clinton's PV margin in Los Angeles proper is somewhere between 700-800k votes.

You have a pretty good napkin!!!!

City of LA:

Clinton: 1,017,038 ---    Trump: 212,080        Margin 804, 958

http://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/sov/2016-general/ssov/ssov-complete.pdf

Well damn - if only I hadn't revised my numbers last-minute! I originally had it between 750-850k but second-guessed myself and thought there might be a greater non-citizen factor in the city proper compared to the county as a whole.

[American2020]

Arizona

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/07/27/arizona-polltrump-approval-at-47-support-for-gop.html

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

When McCain left the floor before the vote, he went to take a call from Trump

He was unable to change his mind.

I cannot imagine why not.


Trump attacks McCain: 'I like people who weren't captured'
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/trump-attacks-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured-120317

Trump Calls McCain Loser, Not a War Hero
http://abcnews.go.com/US/video/donald-trump-calls-mccain-loser-war-hero-32556131


Like most conmen, Trump is accustomed to being able to regularly move on to new victims. He is utterly unprepared to need to keep dealing with the same people. (Having much of his vile nonsense on record isn't doing the aspiring war-criminal any favors either.)

[henster]

Arizona

[pbrower2a]

Arizona at 47-52? That does not change my map.

With Michigan and Pennsylvania effectively gone for the President (promises made and promises betrayed, which is not good for getting re-elected), Democrats start with 268 solid electoral votes. He's not gaining in such states that he lost barely as Minnesota, Nevada, or New Hampshire, let alone Colorado or Virginia.

And, yes, I would still like to see up-to-date polls of Georgia and Ohio.

I don't know how solid the electoral vote of ME-02 is, but that alone would be enough to throw the Presidential election to the House of Representatives. Nebraska's Second Congressional District is a legitimate swing vote.

President Trump is not assured a loss, but he has plenty of ways to lose. ME-02 and NE-02; Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin. That makes six trouble spots scattered across America, different enough that the President cannot make a specific appeal that can win them all.  If you are wondering why I didn't mention  some other states...

he's not going to lose Georgia or Texas without also winning Florida; he's not going to lose Indiana without also winning Ohio; he's not going to lose Iowa without also losing Wisconsin.