Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Daniel909012]

Gallup (August 5th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

Either his approval has improved slightly, or the Quinnipiac poll from last week was an outlier. I think the safest place to put his approval right now is in the mid-to-high 30s.

I expect his approval to go up, considering he's on vacation, ergo, not creating more scandals or having more policy failures. Once he and congress are back to work, I expect it fall back down.

But any time is Mueller Time.

Persons with schizoid personality disorder are often too absorbed in their own thinking and daydreaming that they exclude themselves from attachment with persons and reality.

[BudgieForce]

No one should get caught up in the daily movements of a tracking poll. Your best bet is to average them out weekly.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 6th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

[Virginiá]

Bob Mueller and Russia will somehow save the Democratic Party.

Honestly, if the fallout from this investigation does cause a wave, then you could very well argue it  temporarily saved the Democratic Party, at least in terms of political power / clout in next redistricting.

The only issue I see is that Trump is so uniquely bad in so many other aspects that a wave couldn't be solely attributed to Mueller, especially with that healthcare debacle in the mix. It'll definitely have an impact, though. I'd bet on it.

[Ronnie]

IBD/TIPP (7/28-8/5)

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 59%

EDIT: The link isn't working for some reason, but it is real.

[BudgieForce]

Trump hit a new low on RCP at 37.8% approve.

[Dr. Arch]

IBD/TIPP (7/28-8/5)

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 59%

EDIT: The link isn't working for some reason, but it is real.

Brrrr, it's freezing in here!

[Person Man]

IBD/TIPP (7/28-8/5)

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 59%

EDIT: The link isn't working for some reason, but it is real.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibdtipp-poll-presidential-approval-direction-of-country/

He hit freezing!

[ProudModerate2]

I cant wait to see trump's approval rating in the high 20'.
That would be great !

[Kamala]

He hit freezing!

Let's make it celsius!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

CNN just released their approval poll:
38% Approval (24% Strong Approve, 14% Somewhat approve)
56% Disapproval (47% Strong Disapprove, 9% somewhat disapprove)

Do you trust what you hear from the white house?
Yes 23%
No 73%

60% say Trump is not honest and trustworthy


48% of Republicans don't trust Trump, 73% of Independents and 93% of Democrats

Only 58% of WWC voters see him as a change agent down from 64% in April.

50% of WWC see him as an effective manager, down from 60%.


48% approve of Trump on National security while 47% disapprove.
47% disapprove of Trump on the economy while 45% approve

On just about every other issue tested, majorities disapprove of Trump's work, including on health care policy (62%), foreign affairs (61%), immigration (55%) and helping the middle class (54%). Nearly half (48%) disapprove of his handling of taxes while just 34% approve

[JA]

So, basically, he's weak on every issue and even many of those who approve of him don't trust his White House

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

lmao!

Trump is such a **** up that he is getting failing grades on stuff that hasn't happened yet.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I can't believe how bad those numbers are for Trump...

[Holmes]

people who think/know he's dishonest but still approve of him.

[Virginiá]

IBD/TIPP (7/28-8/5)

Approve: 32%
Disapprove: 59%

EDIT: The link isn't working for some reason, but it is real.

Brrrr, it's freezing in here!

538 gives IBD/TIPP an A- rating, and adjusted the numbers to: 34% - 58%

That's pretty bad. Amazing how fast Trump is falling. He might actually hit the 20s before next year's primaries even start.

[Shadows]

That 14% of the demographic who somewhat approve of Trump & that 50% support coming from WWC is going to tumble when the economy goes south. That is the only thing keeping Trump afloat. That & the fact that you need to give a new President adequate time & chances to succeed before turning against him (especially if you voted for him).

Trump is going to go to the mid 20's in a couple of years (peak Bush approval ratings), if/when the economy turns rogue !

[Holmes]

That 14% of the demographic who somewhat approve of Trump & that 50% support coming from WWC is going to tumble when the economy goes south. That is the only thing keeping Trump afloat.

I don't consider a -20% or so net approval rating "afloat".

[BlueSwan]

Just like Trump would have been screwed had he not inherited a lot of money from his father, so too would he have been screwed if he had not inherited a solid economy from Obama.

[Virginiá]

That 14% of the demographic who somewhat approve of Trump & that 50% support coming from WWC is going to tumble when the economy goes south. That is the only thing keeping Trump afloat.

I don't consider a -20% or so net approval rating "afloat".

That's the funny thing about Trump. His administration (and himself, really) is so incompetent and awful already that the bar had to be lowered significantly just to accommodate him.

The way I think about it is, Bush and Obama had numbers similar to these (although Obama mostly stuck to the low 40s, which is beyond Trump at this point), and when their midterms came up, their party got hit with a wave. Ditto for other presidents with super low approvals.

If that is what happens, they would definitely not be considered afloat

[Crumpets]

Per 538's net approval metric, the only presidents to have a lower net approval than Trump's current number (-20.9) at any point in their first term are George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter. Going by entire presidency, only Nixon and Truman* hit that number in their second term.

*Considering 1945-1949 as his "first" term.

[BudgieForce]

CBS News Poll

Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 58%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-approval-ratings-remain-low-while-his-ratings-on-economy-rise/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=40708117

[pbrower2a]

Just like Trump would have been screwed had he not inherited a lot of money from his father, so too would he have been screwed if he had not inherited a solid economy from Obama.

88 years ago Herbert Hoover was riding an economy that he inherited from his predecessor, and that economy was chugging along just fine.

Of course, Obama is a far better President than is Coolidge and Herbert Hoover is not known for lacking a moral compass.

[pbrower2a]

Poll by ARG in New Hampshire, but only of people who say that they intend to vote in the Republican Primary of 2020.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 

Question wording and responses:

If the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary election were being held today between John Kasich and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote - Kasich or Trump? (names rotated)

Kasich 52 - Trump 40

Republicans 51-42
Undeclared  54-37

If the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary election were being held today between John Kasich and Mike Pence, for whom would you vote - Kasich or Pence? (names rotated)

Kasich 41 - Pence 27

Republicans 37-30
Undeclared 48-21

New Hampshire is no longer a microcosm of America, but even this electorally-small state in a corner of the US powerfully suggests that Republicans are beginning to recognize that Donald Trump is a huge mistake.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/pres20/

P.S. -- I can only imagine what a general poll would be like. 

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Democratic internal.

Democratic opponent 47%
Flake 31%

Flake approval: 18/62
Trump approval: 44/53

It's pretty clear Flake has pissed off both the GOP base and Democrats, but PPP needs to stop with Generic Democrats and start polling real candidates like Sinema and Stanton.

Internal poll by Democrats, but it is consistent with other polls, and it is by a good pollster (PPP). Trump is doing badly in Arizona. Aside from being an awful President (a reasonably-good Republican President would have an approval rating near the inverse of what this President has in Arizona), Arizona could be drifting D due to California transplants getting away from high rents and the fast-growing Hispanic contingent of the vote (there could easily be some overlap). Arizona has a large Mormon population which is usually enthusiastic enough about a Republican President to keep Arizona in the "R" category. But Donald Trump is not the sort of Republican to excite Mormons.  The difference between '52' and '53' is likely noise...    

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

Look at MS/AR. I kind of get MS having low D turnout in 2016 (romney only won by 13), but wow.