Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[pbrower2a]

Look at MS/AR. I kind of get MS having low D turnout in 2016 (romney only won by 13), but wow.

I'm thinking that Arkansas and Mississippi are the sorts of states in which connections to anything exotic (like Russia) are suspect, at least to white people. Patriotism matters greatly. There has never been any question of the loyalty of any Republican nominee for President since at least Eisenhower (who was probably suspect on loyalty to white supremacy). Now I think President Trump offers disbelief. 

[Virginiá]

Gallup (August 7th)

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 59% (+2)

[henster]

Poll of Michigan

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http://www.wzzm13.com/news/local/michigan/michigan-poll-shows-president-trump-steady-and-kid-rock-competitive-in-senate-race/461745393

[Wiz in Wis]

FiveThirtyEight Polling Average (8/8/17)

Approve: 36.4%
Disapprove: 57.9%

The approval gap can now legally drink.

[Gass3268]

FiveThirtyEight Polling Average (8/8/17)

Approve: 36.4%
Disapprove: 57.9%

The approval gap can now legally drink.

I think Trump has record lows in all three polling aggregates.

[BlueSwan]

Just noticed that the gap between Trumps approval rating and Obamas approval rating at the same stages of their presidencies, has been remarkably steady at around a 15-20 point advantage to Obama:



Black line is Obama and green line is Trump, if it wasn't already obvious.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just noticed that the gap between Trumps approval rating and Obamas approval rating at the same stages of their presidencies, has been remarkably steady at around a 15-20 point advantage to Obama:



Black line is Obama and green line is Trump, if it wasn't already obvious.

Waiting for Trump to see this and blame Obama's declining ratings for pushing Trump's down.

[Matty]

If we go to war with the koreans, could we see it in the 20s? Historically, when we enter into quagmires, approval ratings fall.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If we go to war with the koreans, could we see it in the 20s? Historically, when we enter into quagmires, approval ratings fall.

Hard to say.  There's often a "rally around the flag" effect in times of war.  I suppose it would depend on how competent and effective the response would be.  A swift surgical strike to take out their nuclear capability would likely give Trump a boost, while a quagmire probably would drop him into the 20s.  A nuclear strike by NK on the U.S. or an ally, God forbid, would probably drive it even lower.

[pbrower2a]

Poll of Michigan

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http://www.wzzm13.com/news/local/michigan/michigan-poll-shows-president-trump-steady-and-kid-rock-competitive-in-senate-race/461745393


Wow. In a poll where Trump somehow had a 50% approval rating, Stabenow STILL leads by 8

First, even the name of the pollster (of whom I have never heard) looks wrong because even the name of the poster is a craven misspelling. If you remember some of the data from "Loof-Lipra"  Polling on April 1 (get it?) and some others with obvious flaws on that day (approval and disapproval adding to more than 100%, a poll allegedly by a high-school class [Wyatt Earp High School in Tombstone, Arizona -- get it?], and reports with such blatant misspellings as "Inniada" for "Indiana") this almost looks as if it is in the category.  

Second, it uses some suspicious words in polling. "Pretty good"? No other pollster uses that pair of words. There is no distinction between "poor" and very poor".  Note that these are not the usual "approve/disapprove' distinctions.

Third, this looks like a favorability poll that I am no longer using.

Fourth, there are no cross-tabs.

Fifth, the news item contains a picture of one of the candidates.

Sixth, the language of the analysis is biased and un-profesional:

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"Some believe"... yeah, sure. Nebulous authority is worthless.

Does anyone think that I need to use this poll? This looks like a "Tell me what I want to hear" poll.  I used to say that beggars can't be choosers -- but in view of some Gallup data filling many states I can make some choices.  This poll almost looks like a spoof if it isn't a spoof. I am astonished that a network affiliate (ABC-13, Grand Rapids, Michigan) would fall for this if it isn;t a hack job or forgery.   

Michigan gets polled often enough that someone will corroborate or (more likely) refute this poll.      

[Statilius the Epicurean]

If we go to war with the koreans, could we see it in the 20s? Historically, when we enter into quagmires, approval ratings fall.

I would imagine a sharp boost to around 50, then depending on whether the military action is a success or failure it either stabilises there or slowly bleeds down into the 20s

[Virginiá]

People will only "rally around the flag" if there's an immediate justification for doing so. IE: an attack on America, like Pearl Harbor or 9/11. I don't think us declaring war on North Korea would make his support surge (10+ points)

If people think he's being reckless, or worse, doing it entirely for partisan reasons, it could easily backfire. I don't think America is primed and ready for another war yet, mainly because Iraq and Afghanistan were dragged out for such an absurd amount of time. Technically you could argue we aren't even truly done there yet.

I think if Trump wants an actual rallying effect, NK is going to have to attack someone, and severely, like SK or us even. While I'm not sure how big of a deal it would be, if some sort of war did break out, I wonder if people would pick up on the idea that Trump, a Republican, gets elected and almost immediately we are at war again. That might not work out for him if liberals push that narrative hard. He would be the 3rd Republican president in a row who took us to war in some way. Then again, limited military strikes only are much more likely.

[Inmate Trump]

His threat was to hit NK with an attack like nothing the world has seen before.

So if we take him at his word, that means we'll be nuking the crap out of NK.

If he uses nukes anywhere on this planet, his approvals will tank.

I seriously doubt we'll be nuking anyone.  Though considering his previous boner-talk about nuclear weapons, who knows anymore.

[HisGrace]

Democratic internal.

Democratic opponent 47%
Flake 31%

Flake approval: 18/62
Trump approval: 44/53

It's pretty clear Flake has pissed off both the GOP base and Democrats, but PPP needs to stop with Generic Democrats and start polling real candidates like Sinema and Stanton.

Internal poll by Democrats, but it is consistent with other polls, and it is by a good pollster (PPP). Trump is doing badly in Arizona. Aside from being an awful President (a reasonably-good Republican President would have an approval rating near the inverse of what this President has in Arizona), Arizona could be drifting D due to California transplants getting away from high rents and the fast-growing Hispanic contingent of the vote (there could easily be some overlap). Arizona has a large Mormon population which is usually enthusiastic enough about a Republican President to keep Arizona in the "R" category. But Donald Trump is not the sort of Republican to excite Mormons.  The difference between '52' and '53' is likely noise...    

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

I know it's very early but those disapproval numbers in Pen and Mich are pretty devastating for him. Based on that we can say that his base in the rust belt is eroding. 51% in Texas is terrible for him too.  

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

CBS News Poll

Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 58%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-approval-ratings-remain-low-while-his-ratings-on-economy-rise/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=40708117

Sad!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Gallup

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (-1)

[SoLongAtlas]

Gallup

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (-1)

Four more until freezing

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Aug 6-8, 1500 adults

Approve 37 (18 Strongly)
Disapprove 53 (39 Strongly)

Many other questions too -- worth a look.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia: Quinnipiac, Aug 3-8, 1082 RV

Approve 36
Disapprove 61

They also have Northam over Gillespie 44/38 for Governor, with 4% for the Libertarian candidate.

Senator approvals:

Kaine 54/38
Warner 59/30

[The Other Castro]

UNH Poll: New Hampshire

Trump approval: 34-55 (-21)

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_summer_presapp080917.pdf

[Virginiá]

The next 2 weeks ought to be very interesting in regards to his approvals. This is an ideal time for Trump to get a break from negative news, but, on the other hand, I guess Mueller's investigation and Trump's penchant for spewing nonsense from Twitter might negate that.

Regardless, I'd like to see how his approvals average out over the next couple weeks.

[Dr. Arch]

UNH Poll: New Hampshire

Trump approval: 34-55 (-21)

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_summer_presapp080917.pdf

NH is having none of it.

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia

UNH Poll: New Hampshire

Trump approval: 34-55 (-21)

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2017_summer_presapp080917.pdf

North Carolina, PPP. Not commissioned by any outside group.

Approval/disapproval, President Trump: 44-50  
"Do you think that Donald Trump is really making America great again?" Yes -- 37% No -- 52%
Prefer Obama over Trump -- Obama 49, Trump 45

Approval, Gov. Roy Cooper (D) 48-33
Senator Richard Burr (R) 34-43 (re-elected 2016, up for re-election in 2022)
Senator Thom Tillis (R) 28-45 (up for re-election in 2020)

Generic ballot for US Congress... Democrat 46%, Republican 40%

Prefer the current ACA or something Trump wants? ACA 46%, GOP plan 33%, not sure 21%

Excited about voting in the 2018 election?

Very excited 51%
Somewhat 23%
Not at all 23%

The sample admits to voting 46-44, Trump over Clinton. North Carolina was close -- but not that close. Could it be that people who voted for President Trump often want to forget that they did so? I saw a similar phenomenon with Dubya after 2006 as his approval ratings went into the septic tank.

(amazing since there will be no Presidential, gubernatorial, or Senate election in 2018 in North Carolina).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_NC_80917.pdf


North Carolina looks about R+6, so draw your own conclusions. I think that Republicans will have a hard time holding onto the House.

Virginia: Quinnipiac, Aug 3-8, 1082 RV

Approve 36
Disapprove 61

They also have Northam over Gillespie 44/38 for Governor, with 4% for the Libertarian candidate.

Senator approvals:

Kaine 54/38
Warner 59/30

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

[Gass3268]

Trump's base is shrinking

[Gass3268]

New Politico/Morning Consult Poll (Used to be one of Trump's best):

Approve 40% (Strongly 18%)
Disapprove 55% (Strongly 41%)

Source