Trump approval ratings thread 1.1
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Author Topic: Trump approval ratings thread 1.1  (Read 201167 times)
BlueSwan
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« Reply #1350 on: August 20, 2017, 10:34:53 AM »

Now THAT'S what I'm talking about! No way to get reelected in those three key states with those numbers
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Holmes
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« Reply #1351 on: August 20, 2017, 10:47:19 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2017, 10:49:39 AM by Holmes »


Fycking California.

Wow. Trumps collapse in the Midwest is stunning. It appears they may be snapping back to something closer to their 2012 pvi than 2016.

It's looking like it's in between 2012 and 2008. With economic downturn, I could see it reach 2008 levels.
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Kamala
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« Reply #1352 on: August 20, 2017, 10:53:41 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2017, 11:36:57 AM by TexasGurl »

Now THAT'S what I'm talking about! No way to get reelected in those three key states with those numbers



Something, I assume, you've never done.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1353 on: August 20, 2017, 11:59:35 AM »

Wow. Trumps collapse in the Midwest is stunning. It appears they may be snapping back to something closer to their 2012 pvi than 2016.

I don't think it is stunning at all.

He wasn't popular during the GE. Undecided just hated Hillary more then him. He was always on a short leash with the voters.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1354 on: August 20, 2017, 12:15:54 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2017, 05:35:25 AM by pbrower2a »

The three states that were the closest wins for Donald Trump have turned against him.  He won't be getting them back in 2020 except in a rigged election.

Marist, approval, registered voters (which will skew old because many voters of 2020 will be voting for the first time, and that will be largely younger voters). But even without an infusion of younger, liberal votes President Trump looks to be the political equivalent of a helpless lobster in a cooking pot full of boiling water -- at least in these three states.

Michigan: 36 approve, 55 disapprove.

Trump does above 50% with Republicans, White Evangelicals, "Trump supporters", "Tea Party supporters, and people describing themselves as  'conservative' or 'very conservative' but otherwise does badly among just about every identifiable group. Among men it is 43%, and from there it gets even worse across ever sector of ethnicity, educational level, income, and even region within Michigan, including southwestern Michigan which is usually about as solidly Republican as Alabama.

The Governor is term-limited, so he won't be running for re-election.  That will save him some embarrassment, as he was down 37-47 in favorability.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/MIpolls/MI170813/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Michigan%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202017.pdf#page=3  

Pennsylvania: 35 approve 54 disapprove

Much the same as in Michigan -- Trump fails among every group except those directly connected to his ideology. He does have a 44-42 edge among white people without college degrees.

Governor Tom Wolf (D) 47-37 in favorability... good shape.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/PAPolls/PA170813/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Pennsylvania%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202017.pdf#page=3

Wisconsin: 34 approve 56 disapprove

Much as in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Even "conservative/very conservative" support is rather weak for usual expectations at 63-26.  

Favorability/unfavorability of Governor Scott Walker : 40-53 among registered voters. He's going down, and he won't be able to help the President in a re-election bid unless he can turn his poor rating of favorability up significantly.  

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/WIPolls/WI170813/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Wisconsin%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_August%202017.pdf#page=3

Don't try running against Obama: in Wisconsin, 60% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of President Obama. In Pennsylvania it is 62%, and in Michigan it is 63%.

 







Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:




navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+






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The Mikado
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« Reply #1355 on: August 20, 2017, 12:21:45 PM »


Not really a surprise. Trump performed roughly on par with his national average in those states. Now that his national average is about ten points lower, he's lower there as well.
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Matty
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« Reply #1356 on: August 20, 2017, 02:06:32 PM »

It is days like this that show how the heavy heavy dem worship of this board clouds some objective discussion. It is absolutely true that trump has bad numbers in the three closest states in 2016, but how in the heck are we to assume that the democratic party has recovered?

Trump had favorables in the 30s in those states on november 8th, as well, yet he still won.....

Maybe, just maybe, the democratic party is trending in a direction that midwest voters don't like. That absolutely has to be factored in before you write off trump in those states.
 

It wasn't just hillary that midwest voters rejected in 2016, they rejected dem senators and senate candidates who were clean and had no baggage, even beloved figures like Russ Feingold.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1357 on: August 20, 2017, 02:13:08 PM »

It is days like this that show how the heavy heavy dem worship of this board clouds some objective discussion. It is absolutely true that trump has bad numbers in the three closest states in 2016, but how in the heck are we to assume that the democratic party has recovered?

Trump had favorables in the 30s in those states on november 8th, as well, yet he still won.....

Maybe, just maybe, the democratic party is trending in a direction that midwest voters don't like. That absolutely has to be factored in before you write off trump in those states.
 

It wasn't just hillary that midwest voters rejected in 2016, they rejected dem senators and senate candidates who were clean and had no baggage, even beloved figures like Russ Feingold.
Because in the history of midterms no president has been unpopular but the opposition party not benefited. Plenty of times in the lead up to 2010 and 2014 Obama had polling of him being more popular then the GOP party and looked how that went
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1358 on: August 20, 2017, 02:40:54 PM »

but how in the heck are we to assume that the democratic party has recovered?

That depends on what you mean by recovered. People are turning on Trump and the Republican Party, and because of our de facto two party system, that means that in order to toss Republicans out, they will need to vote in Democrats. It doesn't mean the people have suddenly developed a crush on Democrats. It could mean as little as them hating Republicans much more than Democrats at this current point in time.

It is not ideal, but I'll take it.
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OneJ
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« Reply #1359 on: August 20, 2017, 02:52:00 PM »

It is days like this that show how the heavy heavy dem worship of this board clouds some objective discussion. It is absolutely true that trump has bad numbers in the three closest states in 2016, but how in the heck are we to assume that the democratic party has recovered?

Trump had favorables in the 30s in those states on november 8th, as well, yet he still won.....

Maybe, just maybe, the democratic party is trending in a direction that midwest voters don't like. That absolutely has to be factored in before you write off trump in those states.
 

It wasn't just hillary that midwest voters rejected in 2016, they rejected dem senators and senate candidates who were clean and had no baggage, even beloved figures like Russ Feingold.

1. Who said anything about the Democratic Party recovering in the first place?

2. Approval and favorable ratings are two different things, especially considering that those favorability #s were before Trump won the election.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1360 on: August 20, 2017, 04:12:37 PM »

Lol I thoight that was 47% strongly support trump, I was scared haha
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1361 on: August 20, 2017, 07:15:37 PM »

Oh I understand his amount of room in CA. I was just asking why is his approval from the Republicans so low.

Pretty much anywhere where there is a clear and overwhelming majority party, the minority party is going to skew in its direction from a relative standpoint. Democrats in Oklahoma are going to be more conservative as a whole than Democrats nationally; Republicans in California will be more liberal. I've always assumed that this is the collective manifestation of the most basic of political survival mechanisms.

Utah Democrats say hi.

As do Hawaii and Rhode Island Republicans

I think there's a difference between virtual permanent minorities like California and Maryland versus states where the minority party is almost nonexistent (like Utah, Rhode Island, Hawaii, Idaho, etc). The California Republican Party still has representation in different parts of the state. On the other hand, does the Utah Democratic Party have representation outside of Salt Lake or Summit Counties?  There's a difference between 2-1 supermajorities and 4-1 or 5-1 or even worse. At the latter levels, those parties become very localized on the area(s) they represent.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1362 on: August 21, 2017, 02:07:26 AM »


Approve of Trump: 43.4%
Oppose Impeachment: 43.5%


Disapprove of Trump: 55.1%
Support Impeachment: 53.0%

Basically, the only people who oppose impeachment are the ones who approve of him. Only a tiny handful of those who disapprove of him are against removing him from office. Surely this is unprecedented?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1363 on: August 21, 2017, 02:10:50 AM »

It is days like this that show how the heavy heavy dem worship of this board clouds some objective discussion. It is absolutely true that trump has bad numbers in the three closest states in 2016, but how in the heck are we to assume that the democratic party has recovered?

As has already been pointed out, who care?

It's not just about persuasion. Relatively speaking, midterms are about two things: turnout and anti-incumbent sentiment. When you have indicators like this...

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...that exposes a huge vulnerability for the GOP in an election where Democrats are going to be motivated to vote against Trump, while Trump voters unhappy with Congress do not see him as being on the ballot and won't be nearly as motivated if they're upset with their members of Congress. If that effect is even halfway strong and you have a respectable share of swing voters decide to vote against the GOP, it's over.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #1364 on: August 21, 2017, 02:35:03 AM »


Approve of Trump: 43.4%
Oppose Impeachment: 43.5%


Disapprove of Trump: 55.1%
Support Impeachment: 53.0%

Basically, the only people who oppose impeachment are the ones who approve of him. Only a tiny handful of those who disapprove of him are against removing him from office. Surely this is unprecedented?
I suppose theoretically a partisan republican might "approve" of Trump in a poll while still wanting him impeaced because he's an embarrassment or they prefer Pence or whatever. Just like myself and many other liberals strongly disapprove of Trump but are against impeachment for various reasons.

There is also some bias likely going on. I don't support impeachment currently, but if a pollster asked me, I might still answer "yes" to show my strong disapproval of Trump.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1365 on: August 21, 2017, 02:55:57 AM »
« Edited: August 21, 2017, 03:56:48 AM by Great Again VI: The Bane of Bannon »

For some reason, Gallup's weekend numbers were held back and they've only been released now...


8/16-8/18

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+-0)


8/17-8/19

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (+1)
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1366 on: August 21, 2017, 12:44:30 PM »

Gallup (8/18-8/20)

Approve 35% (-1)
Disapprove 59% (+1)
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Kamala
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« Reply #1367 on: August 21, 2017, 12:46:15 PM »

Brrr, is it getting chilly in here?
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #1368 on: August 21, 2017, 01:48:34 PM »

lol

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1369 on: August 21, 2017, 02:02:56 PM »


Lmao, "other"
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Santander
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« Reply #1370 on: August 21, 2017, 02:06:34 PM »


They might as well just go all the way and call it "ungood".
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1371 on: August 21, 2017, 02:22:26 PM »


Great president or Greatest president??
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #1372 on: August 21, 2017, 03:35:47 PM »

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/
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Daniel909012
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« Reply #1373 on: August 21, 2017, 03:47:42 PM »

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/


Under 30% and he's going to jail.
Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1374 on: August 21, 2017, 03:58:08 PM »

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/


Under 30% and he's going to jail.
Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic


Sentences hard
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