Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Inmate Trump]

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Under 30% and he's going to jail.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

Wasn't ARG one of the few pollsters who were fairly accurate in 2016?  Or am I remembering that wrong?

[Kamala]

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Under 30% and he's going to jail.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

Wasn't ARG one of the few pollsters who were fairly accurate in 2016?  Or am I remembering that wrong?

Any poll that shows a better-than-average approval for Trump is now automatically the Most Accurate Pollster of 2016 (TM)

[GeorgiaModerate]

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Under 30% and he's going to jail.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

Wasn't ARG one of the few pollsters who were fairly accurate in 2016?  Or am I remembering that wrong?

I don't know about 2016 specifically, but overall they have a C+ rating from 538 based on 260 polls, with a negligible bias (R+0.1).

[Gass3268]

ABC News/Washington Post

Approve 37%
Disapprove 58%

Also only 28% approved of Trump's response to Charlottesville

[Inmate Trump]

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Under 30% and he's going to jail.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

Wasn't ARG one of the few pollsters who were fairly accurate in 2016?  Or am I remembering that wrong?

I don't know about 2016 specifically, but overall they have a C+ rating from 538 based on 260 polls, with a negligible bias (R+0.1).

Ah, I'm probably thinking of a different pollster then.

[Blackacre]

I'd love to see more state-level approval polling, especially in Ohio and Indiana

[Adam Griffin]

ARG has historically been a garbage poster, but a "legitimate" polling outfit nonetheless.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

This is a forum where we speak ENGLISH, not Spanish.

[Holmes]

ARG sucks but he numbers aren't anything crazy.

[pbrower2a]

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

Under 30% and he's going to jail.

Poll of doubtful source, left pathetic

Wasn't ARG one of the few pollsters who were fairly accurate in 2016?  Or am I remembering that wrong?

I don't know about 2016 specifically, but overall they have a C+ rating from 538 based on 260 polls, with a negligible bias (R+0.1).

C+ pollster? A good analogue is that someone taking the test who can answer the questions with obvious answers and some of modest difficulty well enough -- but nothing tougher.

Consistent with a President with crippled credibility.

[Devout Centrist]

ARG! has spoken

[pbrower2a]

lol

Lmao, "other"

Yes, "Other" because it includes any form of disapproval. Basically "Crimethink", as Orwell described  thought incompatible with the Party.

[windjammer]

Gallup (8/22)

Approve 35% (-)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

He's close to his record right?

[Tintrlvr]

Gallup (8/22)

Approve 35% (-)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

He's close to his record right?

Yes, the worst was 34/61 on 8/13. He's also hit 35/59 and 36/60 before, although never 35/60, so this is his second-worst rating ever.

[Tender Branson]

Trump has a 50-47 favourable rating in AZ, where he'll campaign today.

The poll was done by Data Orbital, which said Trump+3 and McCain+12 in their final poll a few days before the election. Trump won by 3.5 and McCain by 13 points.

[GeorgiaModerate]

75/25 among Republicans is NOT good for Trump.

[Virginiá]

Donald Chumps own pollster posted this on Twitter:

WaPo had something on this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/08/22/trumps-own-pollster-just-confirmed-his-base-is-weakening/?utm_term=.61bf3445f28b

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[Matty]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

[Virginiá]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

How many times are you going to post about this? If we want to check his approvals and debate them regularly, that is our prerogative. It's no different than the other obsession with polls this forum has come election time (minus the election part). His approvals are just fascinating because he's a new president who is essentially imploding at breakneck speed.

We get it. We're all deranged. You've said it, so if it annoys you, just move along.

[Matty]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

Marty...you used to send me such loving messages...what changed?

You trigger me, bigly. I sometimes clench my fist in rage when I read your posts. Not because what you say is wrong...but because beyond all the snark and tongue-in-cheek ways of expressing your dislike of God Emperor Trump, you actually are probably right about the current state of things. And the current state of things upset me.

[Gass3268]

Donald Chumps own pollster posted this on Twitter:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

These are midterm wave numbers. Doesn't matter what issues the Democratic party has if Republicans don't get their voters out.

[GlobeSoc]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

Marty...you used to send me such loving messages...what changed?

You trigger me, bigly. I sometimes clench my fist in rage when I read your posts. Not because what you say is wrong...but because beyond all the snark and tongue-in-cheek ways of expressing your dislike of God Emperor Trump, you actually are probably right about the current state of things. And the current state of things upset me.

whatever...your still a babe tho

what the f**k am i reading

[Person Man]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

Marty...you used to send me such loving messages...what changed?

You trigger me, bigly. I sometimes clench my fist in rage when I read your posts. Not because what you say is wrong...but because beyond all the snark and tongue-in-cheek ways of expressing your dislike of God Emperor Trump, you actually are probably right about the current state of things. And the current state of things upset me.

whatever...your still a babe tho

what the f**k am i reading

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky, PPP: 60-36

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/347362-poll-mcconnells-approval-in-kentucky-at-18-percent

But approval of Senator McConnell is at 18%. Disapproval at 74%. Senator Rand Paul: 37-47.

 http://ourlivesontheline.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/KentuckyResults.pdf

The disparity in approval ratings between the President and the two Senators  is without obvious explanation.  The Senators take the hit for the Trump proposal to return to profiteer-first medicine in one of the poorest states, but the President is somehow exempt from political blow-back? Most of the other questions are related to medical coverage, and they generally go against the GOP agenda.

President Trump must have a full Teflon coverage in Kentucky. McConnell could lose a Senate seat in Kentucky in 2020 while President Trump wins this state decisively.

Arizona (the Arizona Republic, one of the most conservative newspapers in America):


About the Survey

 

The poll surveyed 400 likely Arizona 2018 general election voters who have a history of electoral participation and was balanced to model the likely turnout of voters across party, age, region, and gender.  The live interview survey of voters was conducted by HighGround Public Affairs to both landline and cell phone users.  Anticipated turnout for the Arizona 2018 General Election has a partisan gap of Republican +12%.

 

Next, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job the following persons or groups are doing:

 

Q.        President Donald Trump

 

27.5%  Strongly Approve

14.3%  Somewhat Approve

6.5%    Somewhat Disapprove

48.3%  Strongly Disapprove

3.5%    Don’t Know, Refused

(Decimals: that's 42-54  for me as I fill to the next number for Trump and clip for Democrats)


 

Q.        As you may be aware, former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio was found guilty of criminal contempt of court for defying a Judge’s order to halt detention based solely on suspicion of a person’s immigration status.  There has been speculation that President Trump will pardon the former Sheriff.  Knowing what you know right now, would you support or oppose a Presidential pardon of former Sheriff Joe Arpaio?

28.3%  Strongly Support

8.8%    Somewhat Support

6.5%    Somewhat Oppose

50.3%  Strongly Oppose

6.3%    Don’t Know, Refused

Decimals, sure -- but I clip those.

We may be seeing a cultural change in Arizona. First, I'm guessing that lots of Californians escaping high rents and taxes are finding heir way to Arizona, and they are taking their political attitudes and expectations with them (OK, maybe many of those recent Californians are Hispanic, so that implies some overlap). The Hispanic segment of the electorate has been growing . It is more liberal than Anglo whites, and it is well organized politically. Assimilating? Sure. It is assimilating white Anglo people.

Arizona was closer in 2016 than usual, and it could be another Virginia  in its political trend (although either Colorado or New Mexico is a closer analogue in demographics).

Arizona has a big Mormon population -- and President Trump doesn't exactly fit Mormon family values as did... Obama.

Earlier polls have shown Trump treading water in the hottest and driest state in America (horrible pun, isn't it? I should have used that pun for Michigan and Wisconsin, which really have lakes!)... but you get the basic idea. These results are close to the Marist polls for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But this poll does not deviate much from earlier polls, so it looks good enough for me for now.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/08/21/roberts-trumps-approval-arizona-dips-42-percent/588039001/  

The survey was conducted on August 18-19th and the margin of error of the survey is ±4.88% with 95% confidence.  The HighGround team has built a reputation of reliable and accurate polling over the past ten years – our research has been featured on Nate Silver’s 538, Real Clear Politics, Huffington Post, and many other publications. Last year, HighGround “nailed” the Prop 123 election results within 0.2% of the outcome prior to the May 2016 Special election. Clients and surveys conducted by HighGround include League of Arizona Cities and Towns, Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona, Restoring Arizona, Arizona Hospital and Health Care Association, Education Health and Safety Coalition, local school districts, and various candidate campaigns.  Visit our website to learn more about HighGround’s polling experience.

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60-69
reddish-black 70+

[Devout Centrist]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

Methinks the man projects a bit too much

[pbrower2a]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

I have a statistical chronicle of the failure of the Trump Administration.

Yes, Donald Judas Trump alienates me.