Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[The_Doctor]

An irony: the low uninsurance rate and the good economy im probably keeping Trump afloat at 35-39%. If either changes I can see him going to low 30s.

[The_Doctor]

All of this is even before he came out with that miserable budget today.

What happens when his budget passes and people lose disability benefits like SSDI? People won't be too happy when this happens.

His budget isn't passing so it won't hurt him. It's the traditional hyper-ideological budget that gets voted down 99-1 in the Senate. They'll pass a budget with much bigger deficits to finance all the programs that protect Congress's priorities.

To be fair, I wish Trump had just gone after SS and Medicare and SNAP benefits instead of snipping at everything else but olds have a constituency, unfortunately.

[The_Doctor]

Trump has never been teflon. He lost the popular vote for one. He's been broadly unpopular since day 6 of his presidency and gotten more unpopular since then. The gawking over his base underestimates the fact that Trump remains unpopular with everyone else and that the strongly disapprove beats the strongly approve by a wide margin. Routinely 55% of the country disapproves of him, numbers Ronald Reagan never saw or Bill Clinton (at least on a sustained level).

If he was truly teflon he would be doing better than he is today. In fact if this continues he's on track to be the first president to be unpopular for all of his first six months by August 1. Needless to say that's unprecedented (let alone if he makes it to next January 20 without a single favorable approval rating).

[The_Doctor]

Basically the only reason he's at 38-42% approval is because the economy hasn't yet hit a recession, so his supporters can tune out all the drama.

But as I keep pointing out, we're not gonna go to 2020 without a recession. This should shave his ratings to the low 30s or high 20s right around the midterms or right after. The economic expansion may not slow down until beginning of 2018.

Here's a thought. Nixon was impeached during an economic downturn. There might be a reason for that; Nixon's supporters lost faith in him in hard times as the news became unmanageable from all directions.

Edit: the Great Recession lasted until June 2009. So definitely something in Trumpy's term. I doubt very much the economic expansion will last a full 12 years past 2020.

[The_Doctor]

We're in a recession now.

Evidence?

[The_Doctor]

Her analysis isn't grounded in fantasy, it's pretty reasonable. The recession will probably erode some of his support (PNM - lower tax receipts might be a sign of a slowing economy by the way). A lot of his support is probably because the good times are strong enough for people to be able to ignore the forest fire of the White House.

[The_Doctor]

Trump is unique in the presidential ratings in that he squandered all the goodwill by February. Bill Clinton did the same in his first 200 days but he was skillful enough to rebuild the capital and keep it afloat to a credible level throughout his two terms. His early blunders of 1993-1995 are almost nothing like Trump's blunders. They're policy related and some scandals but nothing on the level of Trump's.

They're on two separate planets although I will say Trump reminds me of a much less able and competent Clinton. Clinton was more focused on winning 50% of the two party vote at almost all times and had the experience of the Arkansas governorship behind him. Trump literally does not grasp political capital or the art of keeping his coalition together enough to pass a law and maintain his ratings.

Remember this. Bill Clinton rebounded after that low and didn't hit negative ratings until fall 1994 to the Oklahoma bombing in April 1995. Trump has been underwater for months with strongly disapprove climbing.

Also Bill Clinton had the economic expansion left to him by George H.W. Bush while Trump might hit a recession within the next two years.

[The_Doctor]

There's signs the economy is slowing and job growth has slowed. I'm not sure yet if we're looking at a recession or not this early or not. But the 37% isn't really significant until other pollsters join in and its within the range for those who approved of him in 538, which is 39% approve.

I wouldn't yet make hay out of this.

[The_Doctor]

There's signs the economy is slowing and job growth has slowed. I'm not sure yet if we're looking at a recession or not this early or not. But the 37% isn't really significant until other pollsters join in and its within the range for those who approved of him in 538, which is 39% approve.

I wouldn't yet make hay out of this.

The latest GDP now estimate from the federal reserve has the economy growing 4% in the second quarter of 2017. That is nowhere near recession territory. Furthermore, we are officially at full employment. At full employment, there will be less employment growth simply because there is very little slack.

It's why George W Bush's 2003-2007 economy saw fairly pedestrian job numbers. It wasn't that the economy was poor in that time (it wasn't), it was that for that time period, unemployment was below 4.5%.

The bigger question is why wage growth isn't picking up actually.

[The_Doctor]

Are any other pollsters corroborating this drop or is this just Gallup? I caution against just looking at Gallup to determine a trend. 538 is showing a slight increase in disapproval but it's not exactly out of the norm or a major swing. [55.1% disapprove, 38.9% approve]

I prefer 538 as it weights the polls.

[The_Doctor]

Are any other pollsters corroborating this drop or is this just Gallup? I caution against just looking at Gallup to determine a trend. 538 is showing a slight increase in disapproval but it's not exactly out of the norm or a major swing. [55.1% disapprove, 38.9% approve]

I prefer 538 as it weights the polls.

Funny enough, Rassy showed a polling fall for Trump starting about a week before gallup.

I don't take Rasmussen seriously or any polling average that weights it at 100%. PPP is better but still has a tiny lean left. Rasmussen is just junk. This btw is the primary issue with RCP's average. A junk and non junk poll is treated equally.

I think 538 probably captures Trump's approval rating most accurately.

[The_Doctor]

When do congressional Republicans begin backing away from Trump? Mid 30s approval is low but what does it need to be in order for mainstream republicans to distance themselves? I'm not referring to moderates like Ros-Lehtinen or Comstock who are already distancing themselves.

Look at the Republican approval numbers, if it gets below 75% or into the high 60's I think you'll see more jump ship.

Didn't Quiinnipiac had strongly approve down to 63% among GOP? Could be wrong.

[The_Doctor]

My question: is the AP's 64% disapproval and 25% disapproval among Republicans a leading indicator or an outlier? He's held steady at 55% disapprove, 38% approve the last 10 days.

[The_Doctor]

Gallup (June 16th)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

He seems to be winning people back despite confirmation that he is under investigation.

It's called statistical noise. He hit 55% disapproval and 38-39% approval about a month ago in the 538 weighted aggregate. He's been hovering there for the last month. So that poll isn't really "new" information. If he drops to 50% disapproval and climbs to something like 40-45%, then I'd say that was real movement. But he seems, as I've said, to keep lowering his approval ratings floor and increasing the disapproval rating ceiling over time. He roughly loses 1-2% approval rating every month. So, in six months, assuming we don't hit his absolute base, he would be at 62-68% disapproval.

[The_Doctor]

Is there any actual point in tracking these polls daily?

"

Yes. I use this as my one stop to see the latest Trump polls and to see if I should do further exploration.

[The_Doctor]

The most recent polling (CBS, Pew, Gallup) all seem to roughly correlate with 538's general pattern of 55% disapproval, 38% approve. I trust Pew's breakdown and it roughly shows the fastest growing segments of the electorate disapproving of Trump and the least fast approving of Trump. (the less educated, white voters).

You'll notice the 18-49 group roughly voted for Clinton as a cohort and post-grads and college grads (a rising segment of the cohort) are disapproving of Trump with heavy margins. Ditto Latinos and African Americans. They're the big reason he's all underwater. And they're all heavy Democratic groups.

Trump is basically underwater by the fastest growing segments of the electorate while the slowest growing segments are backing him.

[The_Doctor]

actually, his whites approval are way below what a normal Republican would see. He won whites by 21%, and he's down to a 6% approval among whites. Even the GOP's white polarization strategy isn't able to overcome the deficits at this point.

[The_Doctor]

Trumpy's approval rating remains basically mired in the high 30s for approval, mid 50s for disapproval. Since the Ten Days of Comey in mid May his approvals seem to have settled in the higher mid 50s for disapproval instead of low 50s and high 30s instead of low 40s for approval. ||

As economic growth continues to slow down, I'm curious how this will continue to play out.

[The_Doctor]

actually, his whites approval are way below what a normal Republican would see. He won whites by 21%, and he's down to a 6% approval among whites. Even the GOP's white polarization strategy isn't able to overcome the deficits at this point.

Whites aren't a monolithic voting group though.

Yes, I agree. 35-40% of whites will always vote Democratic. I was just saying the traditional GOP advantage among whites isn't working out right now and that Trump's white polarization strategy isn't going to be enough, since 35-40% of whites vote Democratic.

The most recent polling (CBS, Pew, Gallup) all seem to roughly correlate with 538's general pattern of 55% disapproval, 38% approve. I trust Pew's breakdown and it roughly shows the fastest growing segments of the electorate disapproving of Trump and the least fast approving of Trump. (the less educated, white voters).

You'll notice the 18-49 group roughly voted for Clinton as a cohort and post-grads and college grads (a rising segment of the cohort) are disapproving of Trump with heavy margins. Ditto Latinos and African Americans. They're the big reason he's all underwater. And they're all heavy Democratic groups.

Trump is basically underwater by the fastest growing segments of the electorate while the slowest growing segments are backing him.

No College Grads only voted for Hillary 49-45% according to the 2016 Presidential Election Page on Wikipedia. They aren't a big Dem voting group like Non-Whites are.

No, college graduates voted Clinton overall. It's the white college graduates that voted 48-45% Trump. College graduates overall voted Clinton 52-42%. They're an expanding bloc of the electorate and they trend Democratic. (Particularly because education is correlated with partisanship; lower education and whiter = more Republican, higher education regardless of race makes you more Democratic).

[The_Doctor]

Notably, he's now inching towards the 60s in disapproval. This is a definite uptick and we'll see if it's the new permanent.