Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 17th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-1)


* reposted from old thread

[Virginiá]

Okay, is it now fair to say that these 38% of people are actually dumb instead of saying they're "economically anxious"?

I'm sure many of these people would continue to reject the notion that Trump is guilty of anything but being too awesome, but for others, no one wants to admit they were wrong, especially when you feel half the country is looking down on you. Saying they disapprove of him so quickly might just be such an admission. Usually presidents erode confidence among their base over years, and yet Trump started out in shambles and it has only worsened since, so this is still pretty remarkable in its own right. I think it is going to take a while before his base significantly erodes.

Now I'm just curious if high-30s becomes his new baseline following all of this, or if the status quo remains.

[Virginiá]

I'm predicting that we'll never see Trump's approval rating go below 35% regardless of what happens....ever.

I'm rather surprised it has stuck at 38% for this long, despite the scandals that have been blowing up. It's not like it hasn't dipped to 35% - 36% before, even if only for a couple days.

It might just be the case that only a recession or completely bungling a massive national disaster can push it lower (for a sustained period of time). Pretty sad, if true.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 20th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

-

This appears to be his longest stretch in the 30s since becoming president.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 22nd)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 23rd)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-1)

[Virginiá]

I wonder if 2018 or 2020 could be the first time in generations that white college graduates post unambiguous majority (or at least plurality) support for Democrats. Those approval numbers among that demographic are abysmal, and it's very difficult to see how that doesn't somewhat translate to votes against Republicans next year.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 24th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 55% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

And Trump's numbers were pulled down, but it didn't really matter because Clinton's own numbers were terrible and a bad campaign strategy prevented her from squeezing by in the places that mattered.

If anything, it suggests that negative ads can help but only so much if you have a bad candidate.

@I Won - can you reduce the size of your signature's image a little bit so it stops screwing up the page? use [img width=500] or something.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 26th)

Approve 41% (-/-)
Disapprove 54% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 27th)

Approve 42% (+1)
Disapprove 53% (-1)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 28th)

Approve 42% (-/-)
Disapprove 53% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Why? Gallup already has him back up to 42%. 46% of Americans who voted in 2016 cast their ballot for Trump. It doesn't particularly surprise me that he would retain, despite his abysmal Presidency, the support of the same people who didn't care about his countless other controversies and scandals during the campaign. As far as they are concerned, most of this negative press coverage is just "fake news."

Given how polarized the country is, and the declining respect for the media combined, his stubborn numbers are easier to believe. His presidency has really just started and it's clear it will take time for him to go any lower than he is now (mid-30s - low 40s). Aside from his staunch supporters who truly believe everything is just a conspiracy against him, many of these soft supporters aren't going to turn on him that quickly. People don't often want to admit when they are wrong about something.

However, as it's probably been pointed out elsewhere before, Trump's 'strong approval' numbers are pretty low. He has a lot of soft support that could vanish rather quickly if the country slides into a recession, or some other event happens that produces tangible negative effects on his supporters. Otherwise, there are probably limits to what the whole Russia scandal dealio can do.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 29th)

Approve 41% (-1)
Disapprove 54% (+1)

[Virginiá]

Her analysis isn't grounded in fantasy, it's pretty reasonable. The recession will probably erode some of his support (PNM - lower tax receipts might be a sign of a slowing economy by the way). A lot of his support is probably because the good times are strong enough for people to be able to ignore the forest fire of the White House.

Just thought I'd drop this here: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/30/debt-ceiling-lift-238861

Debt ceiling fight being moved up because apparently tax revenue was lower than expected:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(not sure if this was already news somewhere else and you were referring to it, so discard this if so)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (May 30th)

Approve 41% (-/-)
Disapprove 53% (-1)

[Virginiá]

He never even went this low during the storm of scandals related to the Russia investigation last month. Well, actually I guess to be fair he came within a point, but still.

[Virginiá]

I'm sure its possible we'll see a period of expansion that sets a new historic record, and it could even be this time, but averaging the time between recessions in this country shows a consistent pattern. I don't need to know why it will happen, just that its much more likely than not to happen in the next 3-4 years. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but it seems like a safe (and also unfortunate) bet.

[Virginiá]

(gallup)

37% Approve (+1)
57% Disapprove (+1)(-1)

FTFY

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 5th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 6th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

I'm not calling anyone out in this thread, but overall, this thread is an example of what is wrong with American politics. We are essentially in campaign mode 24/7, much more concerned with politician numbers than with policy. Furthermore, our number 1 goal is not to deal with policy, but to defeat our political "enemies", aka the other side.

It's Trump who is creating this energy. He's an awful person - so awful that he instantly galvanized a massive movement against him. If the winner was someone like Jeb, I doubt I'd have any interest in keeping daily tabs on his approvals (eg the latest objective assessment of his failure as a president). Trump, on the other hand, through his shady dealings and corrupted behavior just makes me want to count down the days until we can vote out the Republicans who largely refuse to conduct proper oversight unless they have no other option.

I get what you're saying, and what I said above isn't good behavior, but Trump isn't just any other president. If you could step into my shoes, or the shoes of millions of other people on the other side, you'd understand.

We'll see. Trump admin is currently pitching infrastructure. If a bill comes up in congress, you have a duty to vote for it if you support better infrastructure. Period.

I believe they have a duty to vote for it if only a fraction of the money is in the form of privatization schemes, which I expect from the GOP. What I don't support is Trump and Republicans wasting hundreds of billions of dollars on ineffective private sector deals that will barely address a very serious problem, possibly create new problems, and then hamstring us in the future by leaving people who actually want to solve the problem with no money to do so.

I would much rather them do nothing than push forward with a plan that resembles what has been talked about so far.

[Virginiá]

When does Trump hit 60% Disapproval in a Gallup poll?

Probably when he gets to around 33 - 34%. To be at or above 60% disapproval on a consistent basis, I think he'd have to constantly be somewhere between 29 - 32% approval, or less.

[Virginiá]

Any predictions at how low Trump's approval will fall post-Comey testimony?

I'm more inclined to think it will keep his approval in the upper-30s, rather than breaking new ground. His approval rating in Gallup has already hit 35% for a single day once before, so I suppose it is possible he gets close to that. He is only 2% away, after all.

What I am more curious about is whether all this constant drama is enough to set Trump's new approval baseline in the upper-30s range, as opposed to the lower 40s. The past month and a half has been brutal for him, but it's not clear any of it will truly stick once the news cycles begin to return to their pre-Comey ways. Then again, maybe this whole Russia scandal will continue to dominate until the investigation is concluded.

[Virginiá]

We have examples of presidents down in the dumps coming back. In 1982, nobody thought reagan would be re-elected, and even Obama in 2011 was looking vulnerable.

We do, although something they all have in common is winning their first term by comfortable margins or more. If Trump's reelection followed a similar path as, say, Obama's, then he'd lose. Obama's reelection was almost half of is first election's margin. Trump already had no room to spare in that regard.

Of course I guess you could say Trump could come roaring back in popularity, but then I'd say that Trump was never popular and even through the election was rated unfavorably by almost 2/3rds of the country. He simply doesn't have the type of personality or behavior to be as popular as he needs to be. This is something we should all be able to agree on. Putting aside the massive amount of material - on video/audio - of course Trump bullying people and saying crude things, things like making fun of disabled people during a rally will put a hard limit on his favorability ceiling, imo.

I'm not even sure a 9/11-type event could help him indefinitely. It could give him a big popularity boost, but Trump always seems to somehow squander good will from the people, whether by his doing or by some new scandal breaking, or whatever, and this is something Bush never had - he was a relatively clean, unoffensive slate compared to Trump. Also, given how hardened opposition is to him among Democrats and some Indies, I'm not sure how much popularity he'd really get from a rally-around-the-flag event.