Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[OneJ]

Nate Silver made estimates for Trump approval by state.

Here's both approval and disapproval:

And here's just approval:

It's funny how this doesn't take into account a real poll out of Utah.

I have the link.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/chance-donald-trump-impeached/

Yeah honestly I wouldn't be too surprised to see him 1 point underwater here in MS. Start off with Blacks (Democratic) base (~36% maybe?) + other minorities (~2%). I have to remember that Dems disapprove of Trump more than Republicans actually approve. So if that's the case, if you add 9% of whites (Republican or not) then it could be true.

Now if the ACHA passes, it may definitely be true. However, I'm a pessimist so I'm not gonna get my hopes up.

[OneJ]

Yeah. Trump, if I recall correctly, is still slightly popular in Montana. However, a lot can happen over the next 3 years. I'd imagine Montana would be difficult to flip for any Democrat in 2020 at this stage, but if a recession hits (depending on the size of it) then Trump should worry.

[OneJ]

New poll: Trump underwater in Alaska:

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Lol. Alaska does have a history of bad polling (last year for example), so I do kinda wonder if Trump's disapproval is that high in such state. The same poll also has 43% disapproving of Senator Murkowski despite not voting on something like the AHCA. Why is her disapproval higher than her approval?

[OneJ]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

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http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Lol. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if he's underwater or tied in approval in states like MS or SC.

[OneJ]

Also from that poll, 49% of Trump supporters believe he won the popular vote.  40% believe Clinton won it.

And Trump voters wonder why everyone thinks theyre ignorant

*puts on MAGA hat* He did win the popular vote; the millions of votes by illegals don't count!

Remove L.A. and NYC and what's the popular vote? I'd say those areas are not culturally representative of most of America.

Neither is West Virginia nor Wyoming.

[OneJ]

Also from that poll, 49% of Trump supporters believe he won the popular vote.  40% believe Clinton won it.

And Trump voters wonder why everyone thinks theyre ignorant

*puts on MAGA hat* He did win the popular vote; the millions of votes by illegals don't count!

Remove L.A. and NYC and what's the popular vote? I'd say those areas are not culturally representative of most of America.

The big cities of America like Los Angeles are just as every bit of American as the small, rural communities like Elliott County.

[OneJ]

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Is it bad that I'm questioning to myself whether or not the man would even win this borough again?

[OneJ]

Gallup (August 1st)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

Lol. The crashing across the board is hilarious.

[OneJ]

So the only way I can see him winning reelection is against Warren or Harris and playing the SJW vs. real American "Keep America Great" (His actual 2020 slogan) card. It could work but not if he's down into the 30s or below.

I do think he'll get a primary challenger but if it gets too low, I think Trump will bow out for Pence. If he is sure to lose, he won't run to not go out as a loser.

The issue I think with this is that "Keep America Great" is sounding like "America is great because America is good." That's one of Hillary's many mistakes, the messaging. At this rate, Trump likely won't do very well in approval so that slogan could hurt a little.

[OneJ]

Trump falls to new low of 25 percent approval rate in California poll

I don't see how he possibly wins the PV in 2020 with approvals like that.

I wish California secession would gain more traction. When will Californians realize the rest of the country hates them and they have no real representation.

Go outside sometime.

How's the rent out there?

How is the gentrification up there in DC? Beet, think before you post, please.

Getting back on topic, does anyone know why CA Republicans aren't more supportive of him (I would expect it somewhere like in Massachusetts or New York) and where exactly Trump might be falling (like maybe Orange County, etc.)?

[OneJ]

Trump falls to new low of 25 percent approval rate in California poll

I don't see how he possibly wins the PV in 2020 with approvals like that.

I wish California secession would gain more traction. When will Californians realize the rest of the country hates them and they have no real representation.

Go outside sometime.

How's the rent out there?

How is the gentrification up there in DC? Beet, think before you post, please.

Getting back on topic, does anyone know why CA Republicans aren't more supportive of him (I would expect it somewhere like in Massachusetts or New York) and where exactly Trump might be falling (like maybe Orange County, etc.)?

Uh there's really not much room for Trump to fall in California. The Republican floor is around 25%. Remember, he only got 31% there as he was getting 46% nationally. So his dropoff in approval vs. his 2016 numbers is hardly actually coming from California

Oh I understand his amount of room in CA. I was just asking why is his approval from the Republicans so low.

[OneJ]

It is days like this that show how the heavy heavy dem worship of this board clouds some objective discussion. It is absolutely true that trump has bad numbers in the three closest states in 2016, but how in the heck are we to assume that the democratic party has recovered?

Trump had favorables in the 30s in those states on november 8th, as well, yet he still won.....

Maybe, just maybe, the democratic party is trending in a direction that midwest voters don't like. That absolutely has to be factored in before you write off trump in those states.
 

It wasn't just hillary that midwest voters rejected in 2016, they rejected dem senators and senate candidates who were clean and had no baggage, even beloved figures like Russ Feingold.

1. Who said anything about the Democratic Party recovering in the first place?

2. Approval and favorable ratings are two different things, especially considering that those favorability #s were before Trump won the election.

[OneJ]

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Things to take note of from the map:

-Trump is still doing very well in West Virginia.
-The #s in Michigan, Wisconsin, & Pennsylvania seem pretty consistent with the past polls we got.
-Trump's approval in Texas is surprisingly low.
-New Hampshire really hates Trump.
-Approval in Iowa is lower than in Ohio, interestingly (but then again, Iowa is more elastic of the two).
-Utah's approval is around 50%, if I'm not mistaken, is around similar %s in previous polls.
-Why is Trump's approval in Virginia higher than that of North Carolina?
-Trump's approval in both Georgia and Mississippi. Just look at them.

[OneJ]

Qunnipiac:

Approve - 36%(+1)
Disapprove - 57%(-2)

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2487

The gap between white men and women is quite huge when it comes to the approval of Trump (and on some other questions).

White Men:
Approve of Trump - 50%
Disapprove of Trump - 41%

White Women
Approve of Trump - 39%
Disapprove of Trump - 57%