Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[HisGrace]

Democratic internal.

Democratic opponent 47%
Flake 31%

Flake approval: 18/62
Trump approval: 44/53

It's pretty clear Flake has pissed off both the GOP base and Democrats, but PPP needs to stop with Generic Democrats and start polling real candidates like Sinema and Stanton.

Internal poll by Democrats, but it is consistent with other polls, and it is by a good pollster (PPP). Trump is doing badly in Arizona. Aside from being an awful President (a reasonably-good Republican President would have an approval rating near the inverse of what this President has in Arizona), Arizona could be drifting D due to California transplants getting away from high rents and the fast-growing Hispanic contingent of the vote (there could easily be some overlap). Arizona has a large Mormon population which is usually enthusiastic enough about a Republican President to keep Arizona in the "R" category. But Donald Trump is not the sort of Republican to excite Mormons.  The difference between '52' and '53' is likely noise...    

Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.


Now for the theme of disapproval as shown in the Gallup data and subsequent polls:

navy under 40
blue 40-43
light blue 44-47
white 48 or 49
pink 50-54
red 55-59
maroon 60 or higher

I know it's very early but those disapproval numbers in Pen and Mich are pretty devastating for him. Based on that we can say that his base in the rust belt is eroding. 51% in Texas is terrible for him too.  

[HisGrace]

Two big takeaways-

1. 48% of Trump supporters think white nationalists are either "right" or "have a point"

2. 31% of the public think the president supports white nationalism.

[HisGrace]

Bush barely 'won' with his Kasich-style compassionate conservative platform in 2000, what does that say about the chances of republicans to the right of Kasich?

Who cares. At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see candidate Mark Zuckerberg win on a subsidized mandatory abortion platform and in this ignorant country.

Nor would I be surprised to see this country Balkanize in my lifetime. It's polarized to civil war era levels (the bloodiest war in American history - wonderful) and it's only been getting worse throughout my entire life (born in 96').

I'm pretty conflicted on abortion, but if that's what you think makes people ignorant, as opposed to going along with Trump's "I'm going to do so much winning" platform, I don't know what to say.

[HisGrace]

Trump at 37/56. Told y'all that Trump could be overtly racist and it wouldn't make his matters worse than they already are.

It's 37/57.

And since this poll was conducted from Monday to Wednesday, the sample could include a bump for Trump due to his "good" speech on Monday where he had condemned White supremacism. While his meltdown on Tuesday is also partially included here, further ramifications like the forced dissolvement of his presidential business councils are probably not at this point.

We'll see what happens next week when you have polls with the entire sample post-Tuesday. Tuesday is what could really hurt him, not the stuff over the weekend.

[HisGrace]

Are anybody meeting people who thought that what Trump did over the weekend was fine, but then suddenly turned after tuesday? I doubt that very many of those people exist, unfortunately.

I could see it. Maybe not finding it "fine" but they still approved of him generally but then switched to unsure or disapproved after Tuesday. The big difference is that he didn't actually say anything positive about white supremacists over the weekend. His Tuesday statements also got a lot more coverage.

[HisGrace]

Trump at 37/56 in Gallup. Told y'all that Trump could be overtly racist and it wouldn't make his numbers worse than they already are. He could probably go to a Klan rally and 30% of Americans would find a way to say "well, maybe he has a point."

I'm not really convinced this is the kind of scandal that would impact his current approving supporters. I mean this isn't really a new thing for him, but it's particularly brazen and stupid. Trump is getting closer and closer to his core base of supporters, which also means we are needing more and more scandals that produce tangible effects on their lives to drive the support away. Overt friendliness towards neo nazis I don't think is applicable in that sense.

In other words, if he was at 40% - 42%, I could see this getting him to 36% - 38%, but... he's already there

Oh, I agree, and I think I expressed basically the same point in a lesser way. I certainly think his support CAN definitely drop a lot lower than it is now, but it's gonna have to be him actually negatively affecting these people, or people they know, to do it. Like healthcare. Or war. Or the economy shedding jobs.

But he can still get away with saying n***** though and it wouldn't shake his core base. They'd just find a way to justify it or simply tune it out because it doesn't affect them.

"But Jay-Z says it all the time!!!"

"But black people call white people cracker sometimes!!!!"

"You're just a PC cuck!!!!"

[HisGrace]

Not sure if Bannon's removal will help or hurt.

I heard about what Heather's mom had to say about Trump. I feel she may turn his base against him more than his own comments could. When people see they're standing against the side of Heather's mom, they'll show a change of heart.

Honestly, even I'm having second thoughts about him.

I think it would be more likely to hurt him. People who know/care who Bannon is likely fall into two camps- 1. People who hate Bannon/Trump and use him as a boogeyman. They obviously won't start liking Trump just because he fired him. 2. People who read Breitbart and are Bannon fans. Most of them will probably stick with Trump, but he may lose some of them.

[HisGrace]

Trump falls to new low of 25 percent approval rate in California poll

I don't see how he possibly wins the PV in 2020 with approvals like that.

I wish California secession would gain more traction. When will Californians realize the rest of the country hates them and they have no real representation.

Dafuq?

I think Beet is day drinking

Trump is popular and people are lying to pollsters. California doesn't count. Right wing Twitter is actually correct about this.

If we're just going to start arbitrarily saying that some votes "don't count" why don't you start saying he was elected unanimously because all the people who voted for somebody else "don't count"?

[HisGrace]

Why do 5% of Black people have a favorable view of white supremacists?

5% of people have a favorable opinion of just about anything. You could probably find 5% of people who had a favorable opinion of cancer.

[HisGrace]

Fun fact- in January 1983, Ronald Reagan's approval rating was 35%. He went on to come within 10,000 votes of winning every single electoral vote.

Nearly every president in the modern approval rating era (Truman onward) has had the highest approval rating of their first term during their first year. The only exception is Bush 41 during the Gulf War. It is extremely unlikely that Trump's approval ratings will be higher this year than they've been this year.

Looking at the trendline on FiveThirtyEight's Trump Approval Average, he should cross below 30% approval sometime in February, and his approval should be in the low 20s by November 2018. Of course, he could speed up the process by crashing the economy by shutting down the government or triggering a default.

Trump's danger zone for removal from office is probably around 25% or so. I previously thought the floor for his approval was in the 20-25% range, and I now think it's closer to 15-20%.

Trump's danger zone for removal is if he gets caught doing something illegal. I'm sick of people acting like he's going to get impeached for being unpopular.

[HisGrace]

I wonder what will happen in the next few weeks when tax reform will be in the headlines. Trump is going to 13 states to push for it.

Theoretically, it could raise his approval among republicans.

tax reform needs 60 votes

Trump is terrible at making deals...he aint getting 60 votes

Don't be so sure. There have always been a few democrats willing to vote for tax reform under a GOP prez. We saw it happen under reagan and bush II.

Totally different era. Trump's not going to see any Democrats (certainly not break with the party to support him on a big ideological litmus test issue like this.

[HisGrace]

Tax reform will cause suburb gop to trend d

Can't wait to have MI, PA, WI, and IA back in the Democratic column!

We have three of the dreariest years in American history in which to wait.

For you they will be bad but for true Americans they will not be. 8 years of a weak corrupt and parasitic government, now it's your turn to cry like us.

I haven't cried over Trump's presidency and I don't know too many people who have. Good to know you sat around crying like a little girl for eight years when Obama was president, though.

Also, note how the benefit of Trump's presidency that he points out is that "now it's your turn to cry like us". Nothing about policy, just emotions. Who are the snowflakes again?

[HisGrace]

Those Texas figures are brutal.

If the Dems nominate the right candidate and Trump is still on the ballot 2020 could really be the election Texas turns blue (or red in Atlas colors).

[HisGrace]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Sep 15-21

Approve 45 (+3) - Strongly 23 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-2) - Strongly 40 (-2)

While those are generally good numbers for him 23 strongly approve vs 40 strongly disapprove (out of 53 percent disapproving) doesn't bode well for his long term prospects.

[HisGrace]

According to that surverymonkey poll, trump has seen a 11 point swing in his approval/disapproval spread since late august. If Hurricanes and "bipartisanship optics" will do that, can you imagine what a war with north korea would do? (at least in the short term?)

Hope he doesn't get any ideas. lol

There is no guarantee a war would help him. People have to see the war as necessary, and worth the cost. Further it's very doubtful a war with a country like North Korea would be painless. There would quickly be a lot of casualties and an eventual high cost. A shock to the global economy wouldn't be out of the picture, either. I mean really, when is the last time a president engaged in a war and came out popular? Truman/Korea, LBJ/Vietnam, Bush/Iraq+Afghanistan - those all worked out terribly, and in more ways than just presidential popularity.

No wartime president has ever lost an election, although LBJ likely would have lost in 68 if he ran. He'd certainly get a huge boost initially from a war (especially if NK attacked first) and then decline if it turned into a quagmire.

[HisGrace]

President Trump is soaring in the polls.

The fact that 40 percent approval is considered "soaring" is telling about the trouble he's in.

[HisGrace]

Hawaii navy blue? Is that a mistake?

I would assume so since the disapprove map has it at 64 percent.

[HisGrace]

Alabama, DDHQ 9/27-28, 590 LV

Strongly approve 219 38.8%
Somewhat approve 89 15.8%
Somewhat disapprove 42 7.4%
Strongly disapprove 200 35.5%
Undecided 14 2.5%

Total approve - 54.6%
Total disapprove - 42.9%

In the Senate race, they have Moore 50.2%, Jones 44.5%.

Moore winning really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, and I don't think his capacity to win in Alabama is anything new. He could've won earlier if he wanted.

[HisGrace]

I wonder if his ratings will take a hit as a result of his incompetence regarding the Hurricane Maria aftermath in Puerto Rico.

This is worse than Katrina, and we know what Hurricane Katrina did to the polling numbers for Dubya.

Lying, glory-seeking fool!

I would assume Bush's numbers prior to that were higher than Trump's now, though. Also partisan loyalty probably wasn't quite as high then.

[HisGrace]

I wonder if his ratings will take a hit as a result of his incompetence regarding the Hurricane Maria aftermath in Puerto Rico.

This is worse than Katrina, and we know what Hurricane Katrina did to the polling numbers for Dubya.

Lying, glory-seeking fool!

I would assume Bush's numbers prior to that were higher than Trump's now, though. Also partisan loyalty probably wasn't quite as high then.

Dubya saw his approval ratings soar in the wake of 9/11. That's not a fair comparison for any President.

That's not the point. Bush had further to fall because his approvals were higher. It shouldn't be assumed that Trump will lose the same number of points or the same percentage of points. A lot of the people who initially supported him who would have abandoned him over this already abandoned him over firing Comey or C'Ville. The die hards are most of what's left.

[HisGrace]

If he's having another downturn what do we think the cause is? Is it the response to Puerto Rico finally showing up in the polls?