Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[GlobeSoc]

It should be 1.1, NOT 2.0.

[GlobeSoc]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

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http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Ouch!

I imagine that the upland south is less stable for trump than some might think. Really, Idaho and Wyoming are the only states that I could firmly say will never leave the Trump column.

[GlobeSoc]

Arkansas - Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll of Trump approval:

Approve - 50%
Disapprove - 47%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://katv.com/news/local/president-trumps-job-approval-in-arkansas-50-47

Lol. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if he's underwater or tied in approval in states like MS or SC.

Almost certainly below water in MS, less certain about SC.

Utah

48% Approve
50% Disapprove

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Unlike most states, the Utah GOP brand is completely decoupled from the Trump brand, so this won't affect any race, except possibly 2020-president if Trump stops being an idiot for long enough to avoid impeachment.

[GlobeSoc]

Since the Washington Post already analyzed Trump's positive or negative swing from his election results in each state to his current approval ratings, I figured I'd go a step further and see what Trump's trend is. Of course, the trend is comparing the state's swing to the national swing and seeing whether it is higher or lower. So, that'd give us a better idea of how each state is responding to the Trump Presidency.

Vote | Approve | Swing | Trend | State

46% | 40% | -06% | +00% | United States
62% | 55% | -07% | -01%  | Alabama
51% | 51% | +00%| +06% | Alaska
48% | 43% | -05% | +01% | Arizona
61% | 53% | -08% | -02%  | Arkansas
31% | 30% | -01% | +05% | California
43% | 38% | -05% | +01% | Colorado
41% | 34% | -07% | -01%  | Connecticut
42% | 38% | -04% | +02% | Delaware
49% | 42% | -07% | -01%  | Florida
50% | 43% | -07% | -01%  | Georgia
30% | 35% | +05%| +11% | Hawaii
59% | 53% | -06% | +00% | Idaho
38% | 36% | -02% | +04% | Illinois
56% | 47% | -09% | -03%  | Indiana
51% | 45% | -06% | +00% | Iowa
56% | 53% | -03% | +03% | Kansas
63% | 53% | -10% | -04%  | Kentucky
58% | 51% | -07% | -01%  | Louisiana
45% | 42% | -03% | +03% | Maine
34% | 30% | -04% | +02% | Maryland
33% | 29% | -04% | +02% | Massachusetts
47% | 42% | -05% | +01% | Michigan
45% | 39% | -06% | +00% | Minnesota
58% | 48% | -10% | -04%  | Mississippi
56% | 49% | -07% | -01%  | Missouri
56% | 56% | +00%| +06% | Montana
59% | 52% | -07% | -01%  | Nebraska
46% | 44% | -02% | +04% | Nevada
46% | 45% | -01% | +05% | New Hampshire
41% | 36% | -05% | +01% | New Jersey
40% | 37% | -03% | +03% | New Mexico
37% | 31% | -06% | +00% | New York
50% | 42% | -08% | -02%  | North Carolina
63% | 59% | -04% | +02% | North Dakota
51% | 47% | -04% | +02% | Ohio
65% | 54% | -11% | -05%  | Oklahoma
39% | 38% | -01% | +05% | Oregon
48% | 43% | -05% | +01% | Pennsylvania
39% | 37% | -02% | +04% | Rhode Island
55% | 50% | -05% | +01% | South Carolina
62% | 57% | -05% | +01% | South Dakota
61% | 52% | -09% | -03%  | Tennessee
52% | 42% | -10% | -04%  | Texas
45% | 50% | +05%| +11% | Utah
30% | 26% | -04% | +02% | Vermont
44% | 39% | -05% | +01% | Virginia
37% | 36% | -01% | +05% | Washington
68% | 60% | -08% | -02%  | West Virginia
47% | 43% | -04% | +02% | Wisconsin
68% | 56% | -12% | -06%  | Wyoming

Top 10 states trending away from Trump

-06% | Wyoming
-05% | Oklahoma
-04% | Kentucky
-04% | Mississippi
-04% | Texas
-03% | Indiana
-03% | Tennessee
-02% | Arkansas
-02% | North Carolina
-02% | West Virginia

Top 10 states trending towards Trump

+11% | Hawaii
+11% | Utah
+06% | Alaska
+06% | Montana
+05% | California
+05% | New Hampshire
+05% | Oregon
+05% | Washington
+04% | Illinois
+04% | Nevada
+04% | Rhode Island*

*Three-way tie for 9th place

The South is a sea of Atlas red on this map. 9/11 confederate states trending against Trump. Interesting

[GlobeSoc]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

The problem with his model is he is just doing generic vs generic he doesn't factor in the fact that seats he has the R's holding the dems have already landed the A-star recruits in those districts or the fact Texas is going to get redrawn

Yeah. I really doubt the Rs will be able to keep the House with a 6 or 7 point loss. Has that ever happened? 

No, it has not. The GOP gerrymanders are strong, but nowhere near that strong. Democrats are already maxed out (or close to it) in most of their urban districts. Such a wild swing like that is going to come primarily from swing districts and light red seats, not safe blue or safe red seats where the challengers are jokes. Nate Silver and Dave Wasserman think that anything D+7 or so is sufficient to gain the House. If they're at 58%, then there's a zero percent chance that Republicans keep the House.

58% would be 1894 levels

[GlobeSoc]

Some of y'all really need to get help for your trump derangement syndrome.

The fact is that healthy, functioning adults don't need to check this stuff daily in order to feel good about themselves.

It honestly feels like a non-negligible amount of you people's lives are committed to destruction of your political enemies.

For example, I am convinced that the poster "mondale won 1 state" does not have a day job.

Marty...you used to send me such loving messages...what changed?

You trigger me, bigly. I sometimes clench my fist in rage when I read your posts. Not because what you say is wrong...but because beyond all the snark and tongue-in-cheek ways of expressing your dislike of God Emperor Trump, you actually are probably right about the current state of things. And the current state of things upset me.

whatever...your still a babe tho

what the f**k am i reading

[GlobeSoc]

Obama's 08 margins are probably still the max a Democrat can hope for - unless there is a bunch of funny business with nominal turnout. The GOP basically has a base of 62 million voters (give or take a couple million) that sticks with them regardless of what happens. All of the wild swings nationally over the past 15 years basically have hinged on how many people turn out and vote for Democrats rather than Republicans. Bush got 62m in 2004, McCain got 60, Romney got 61 and Trump got 63.

If you had another 10 million people turn out to vote and they went overwhelmingly Democratic, then that Democrat might be able to hit 55%. There are also third parties to contend with, depending on the climate of the election; a 55-45 two-way vote might be more possible.

those 62 million are old tho

[GlobeSoc]

Gallup:

Dissaprove: 58% (-3)
Approve: 36% (+2)

Looks like I was wrong, he is getting a Harvey boost. I'm doubtful it will be much though. Might break 40% again but that's it.

CORRELATION. IS. NOT. CAUSATION.

[GlobeSoc]

Some states are acting... weird. MT and WV fluctuate between being Trump's best states and either being tied (WV) or just barely approving (MT). This is the second time Ive seen WV in white on this thread actually.

Also, whats with FL? Trump barely won it, but it's closer to states he won comfortably (TX, SC) than other states he barely won (MI, PA, WI)

Boomers may be starting to take their toll on Florida's PVI. I could see a Cuban republican result in FL's PVI being several points to the right

[GlobeSoc]

All of the pink states except Kentucky are urban states and id point out that the poll leaving it in pink may be an outlier, although one possibility could be that KY is de facto giving him a home state bonus.

The Orange appears to be deep southern, new england, iowa, NM/AZ and a few more urban states.

The red appears to be midwestern, with a few southern and western states too.

The deep red seems to be new hampshire, West Virginia, and the interior plains.

This implies a bizarro version of TD's map, where not just the south but the interior plains sprint dem. Id note that every state with a significant hispanic constituency, except maybe Colorado or Texas, appears to trend GOP.

Could wé have a trend map based on this?

[GlobeSoc]

Tax reform will cause suburb gop to trend d

[GlobeSoc]

Trump unfit to be president.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/27/trump-poll-fit-to-be-president-243219

Ah, a majority of America is arriving at the conclusion I drew in June 2015 May 2011.

Approximately 1991.

Approximately 1946.