Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Hindsight was 2020]

33%???

Wow.

It's hard to imagine how a president could get reflected with that kind of rating. Was Dewey just a really terrible candidate?

Opposite Dewey was JFK before JFK (a charming/charismatic rock star like politican whom the pres loved) he had Warl Warren as his running mate an most were expecting a slaughter. Truman beat him pretty much by running on FDR's memory which shows you how popular FDR was an how strong the NEmew Deal coalition was

[Hindsight was 2020]

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Key point about 2018 that I don't think people like MT realize is Trump is likely to kill the last remaining GOP strongholds in Cali in Orange County an Southern Cali which make up 7-8 seats

[Hindsight was 2020]

Key point about 2018 that I don't think people like MT realize is Trump is likely to kill the last remaining GOP strongholds in Cali in Orange County an Southern Cali which make up 7-8 seats

Not predicting that Democrats will pick up 40+ seats in 2018 /=/ Refusing to believe that Trump will damage the CA GOP even more than it already is. CA is going to get pretty ugly in 2018 and 2020, no doubt about it. I'm not sure how many seats they will actually pick up there, though.

Yeah but at the same time I find it hard how in California alone with 7-8 seats you think the damage for the GOP in total will be 9-15 seats. NY has 5 seats I could think of that could be swept away an the suburbs in Penn don't look good either

[Hindsight was 2020]

Regarding all these hopes of defeating CA GOP House representatives, is there much evidence much has changed since November? It seems many places already rejected Trump, and voted for the local GOP candidate anyway. Has disapproval in California noticeably grown since November when he received 31% of the state's vote, but most reps held on, or is the thinking that only Democrats will show up this midterm?

Without knowing much about the situation, it seems California outside of Issa's district might be a lot harder to turn than other parts of the country that have already elected Democrats in the last 12 or so years.

There's probably a statistically significant number of Issa et al. voters whop voted for them to keep a check on incoming president Clinton, and now see them as enablers of the Trump agenda. Those voters are who will make the difference in 2018.

That but more importantly a bunch voted for the AHCA

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

In view of the extreme contempt that the President has for anything liberal and his complete lack of pragmatism that looks about as likely as a tiger converting to vegetarianism. 

The only way in which the Democrats get President Trump to sign legislation that a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress can pass is if we have a recession that forces actions contrary to the will of the President. That's the environment in which TARP was passed. ...I would not make a great deal out of a 2% swing in the Gallup polling estimate of the approval rating of the President. The typical margin of error in approval polling is about 4%.  Analysis of a 2% difference is specious except in electoral results in which even one vote can be enough to decide an electoral result. 

I'm guessing that 37% is close to his floor, and that reflects the worst that can happen when the US is not staring defeat in the face in an unpopular war, a recession is underway, or inflation is scaring people. 

You do realize trump for most of his adult life has either been a democrat or a maverick republican, correct? He has spoken favorably in the past for single payer, higher taxes on the rich, etc. Who knows how he would react with a dem house. But to say trump hates all things liberal is not the truth. Hell, just last week he included paid leave in his budget.

If that was remotely true then the AHCA wouldn't been a thing

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think it could be fair to say he gambled on pulling of Paris wining his base but it just pissed people off

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why are so many posters here going full zero-hedge regarding predicting future disaster for the economy? What data backs that up? Job growth has slowed a bit, but that's because we are at full employment. There is no slack in the labor market. There are not enough people actively looking for jobs right now who don't have one for there to be very high monthly job growth. When the economy is at full employment, you pay attention to wage growth and GDP growth. The most recent GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2017 (april-may-june) is 4.0%, which is a sign of a steadily improving economy. If wage growth continues to improve and gdp growth remains around 3%, it's tough to make an argument that there needs to be a rethinking for our econ policy.

Several factors: 1) Recessions tend to come in cycles an we are due for one, 2) Trump is anti-enviormental jobs or what least prefers other job sources so we have a gov't that doesn't want to invest were the market is going, an 3) Trump's plans like tax reform so far have been half assed while WS investors want something big

[Hindsight was 2020]

Trump down to 79.2% approve / 17.0% disapprove among Republicans in the HuffPo aggregate:

link

An there it is

[Hindsight was 2020]

Major difference is the economy played big roles in why they were vulnerable an then bounced back with Trump the economy isn't a factor it's been all self inflicted wounds

[Hindsight was 2020]

I still think it's too early to use approval ratings to predict 2018. A year and a half is an eternity in politics. History tells us that the party out of power makes inroads and low approval ratings cost seats, but the magnitude is still up in the air.

We have examples of presidents down in the dumps coming back. In 1982, nobody thought reagan would be re-elected, and even Obama in 2011 was looking vulnerable.

Trump, of course, has unique issues. But there is a lot going on in this world. If something happens in korea, it could be a big factor.

This is true, and can work the other way as well.  In early 1991, after the conclusion of Desert Storm, GHW Bush's approval was close to 90%.  If anyone had suggested that he'd lose handily the following autumn, they'd have been laughed out of town.

In late 1994 and early 1995 right after the devastating 1994 midterm election Rush Limbaugh was gleefully starting his daily countdown clock to count the days until Bill Clinton would be swept out of office. Rush's shows would start with there are 638 days left in Bill Clinton's presidency. In 2011, Democrats could point to Clinton having a big comeback in 1995-1996, but Clinton had no recent precedent to point to.

Big difference is Trump is way more divisive then Bill if dems take house Trump should just get his resignation letter ready

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 58% (+2)

Vindication REVOKED

Sad

[Hindsight was 2020]

Got to love how freaking insecure he is and how envious he is of Obama

[Hindsight was 2020]

So president douche has gone to Iowa for a victory lap over Handel winning. Seriously Obama never attacked like this cons so what "revenge" is this?

[Hindsight was 2020]

barry also rubbed it in our faces

The only possible time he arguably did that was "back of the bus" comment when trying to pass healthcare and then it was one time not this contestant trolling

[Hindsight was 2020]

Holy crap did Trump really just get up and brag about Gary Cohen by saying "I don't want poor people running the economy"

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup (June 24th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+2)

Sad

[Hindsight was 2020]

Just because that worked in one SE doesn't mean it will work in a midterm over a year from now

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup (June 28th)

Approve 40% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

Surging!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Well where is the poll?

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don't get the 'What do Dems stand for' gripe in the article. What did the GOP stand for under Obama or the Dems under Bush? Of course most of the party is going to be against the opposing President and policy issues are going to be secondary.

Except Dems barely stood for anything when we were governing...

Say what you want about the Conservatives, but they have a coherent policy and cultural identity, even if they don't have a filled out platform. When you think Conservative, you've at least got God Guns Grits n Gravy (or whatever that Huckabee book was) to turn to when figuring out what they want to do with the country.

Most people couldn't name what Clinton was running on or what Democrats wanted to do in power during the 2016 election. Because we never decided, and never told them.

Serious question when it comes to critizing Obama and Clinton why do you ignore that they had republican congresses that hated them?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Gallup

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 59% (+2)

He's nearing 60!!!!

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

The problem with his model is he is just doing generic vs generic he doesn't factor in the fact that seats he has the R's holding the dems have already landed the A-star recruits in those districts or the fact Texas is going to get redrawn

[Hindsight was 2020]

Now is not the time for trump and republicans to give up. They have to fight through the headwinds and deliver on things.

Trump threw congress a bone with the RAISE act. There is still time to get things done.

General kelly needs to get the WH in order first, but you can't give up so early.

The media has actually tended to greatly over exaggerate when trump gets a "win". Remember the state of union address? 

It is too early to throw in the towel.

Threw a bone? The reports are this thing is DOA in congress you already have Graham bashing it and God knows how McCain, Flake, and Heller feel on it

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think it will be big among the "remember when" crowd and huge in the South. We may end up with a revivalist "The South Will Rise Again" crowd, supported by many more people. Already it has been propped up in Central and SW VA (Confederate flags popping up all over the place) due to the us vs. them angle and lack of economic opportunity.

I don't know about "may"...it's pretty clear that this crowd exists, and in quite large numbers.

Also, about your last sentence regarding racism and the lack of economic opportunity, you may want to read this

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I just want to put this out here to challenge the notion that improving peoples' economic conditions will help decrease racism.

Yup. I never believed that there was much of a correlation. The whole idea that people vote for right wing populists (not just Trump, but all over the world) due to economic anxiety is basically bull. There just happens to be a correlation between low education and adherence to right wing populist ideas, that is unrelated to actual income levels.

I am highly questioning this data, from the fact that LYNCHINGS did increase in times economic distress and high cotton prices.

Far-Right wing parties, increase in times of economic uncertainty, that is also a confirmed political trend, whether that relates to hate crimes is a different question, so yes, having better economic conditions, does help quell racism.

But anything for clintonites to smear the non-college educated white population, am I right?

How is it smearing though? It's not like "oh you killed a black person because you are upset over a lack of job opportunities" is some justifiable excuse

[Hindsight was 2020]

Opinion Savvy:

Approve 43% (35% Strongly)
Disapprove 55% (51% Strongly)

Source

It's werid how those #'s are awful yet I am disappointed