Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Person Man]

How low has a president gone and still recovered with no consequences? There was Truman, right? Even he lost Congress and only ran once.

If there becomes a time when it becomes apparent we are "electorally locked in", there will be issues.

[Person Man]

And both Truman and Clinton lost Congress and they are where Trump is.

[Person Man]

Basically the only reason he's at 38-42% approval is because the economy hasn't yet hit a recession, so his supporters can tune out all the drama.

But as I keep pointing out, we're not gonna go to 2020 without a recession. This should shave his ratings to the low 30s or high 20s right around the midterms or right after. The economic expansion may not slow down until beginning of 2018.

Here's a thought. Nixon was impeached during an economic downturn. There might be a reason for that; Nixon's supporters lost faith in him in hard times as the news became unmanageable from all directions.

Edit: the Great Recession lasted until June 2009. So definitely something in Trumpy's term. I doubt very much the economic expansion will last a full 12 years past 2020.

If there is none by July 2019, it would be a record.

[Person Man]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

[Person Man]

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

The 90's aren't coming back for the foreseeable future. Increasing polarization has been the norm from approximately 2000-onwards. The Democrats would've won in a crushing wave in 2018 to take back both the House and senate given the map for the latter. They'd have a lot of political capital at their disposal in such an environment and would spend most of their time investigating Trump's conflicts of interest and Russian connections before passing any kind of legislation. They'd be focused on 2020 and nothing else.

Also Trump isn't politically savvy enough to triangulate. I don't even think he knows what that word means.

The 1990s began with Democrats dominant in political life in Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia and with Republicans dominant in Virginia. That seems to be over.

It is far too early to predict any 'crushing wave' for Democrats in 2018. Republicans still have some cards up their sleeves. It was possible after the 2016 election for Republicans to consolidate nearly complete control of the USA with a wave that would make a bare majority in the Senate into one just short of allowing the Republican Party the ability to amend the Constitution to transform America into a dominant-party system analogous to that of the People's Republic of China... that is obviously over.   

It looked like the opposite thing in 2008.

[Person Man]

I believe he will end up around 30% job approval for the midterms.

The economy isn't going to save him. That's for sure!
He could become competitive again with winning a war or getting in a big enough war. We're losing in Syria, so his work is cut out for him!

[Person Man]

My guess is that if you are above 45%, the median voter will probably hold their nose for you, but by 40% all the truly undecided voters have turned on you. By 30-35, people who voted for you will not vote for you again and by the time you are under 30, people will start peeling off bumper stickers. I don't think you can get under the high 20s.

[Person Man]

I'm not calling anyone out in this thread, but overall, this thread is an example of what is wrong with American politics. We are essentially in campaign mode 24/7, much more concerned with politician numbers than with policy. Furthermore, our number 1 goal is not to deal with policy, but to defeat our political "enemies", aka the other side.

This is a problem on both sides and I do not see it ending anytime soon. If a democrat gets into office in 2020, I think you'll see immediate opposition from the republicans.

It's a problem in the modern era when peddling constant outrage and opposition sells at the polls, while coming together to form policy doesn't sell at all.

It's a mirror opposite of post ww2 america.

Lol, cry me a river.

Your president is deeply unpopular and pushes for terrible legislation. So save me the bothsides, moral preening bull****.

You misread my post. Trump in many ways deserves low approvals right now. Slow, half-assed legislation and constant investigation intrigue is deserving of scorn. BUT, that doesn't mean politicians in congress don't have a duty to craft policy they were elected to put forward. Sometimes we forget that it is the legislation branch that is supposed to form legislation and vote on it, while the executive branch can veto and execute.

Well, this isn't a "bothsides" problem, but a GOP one.

Democrats have been willing to work on things like infrastructure and the ACA for years now, it is the GOP who shuts down any attempts to do so.

You want a functionally legislative branch, then you have to get rid of the GOP.

We'll see. Trump admin is currently pitching infrastructure. If a bill comes up in congress, you have a duty to vote for it if you support better infrastructure. Period.

Trump's infrastructure plan is a privatization scam. Democrats shouldn't vote for a **** bill just because Trump calls it infrastructure.

For all we know, Privatization of ATC could be a great thing, on the other hand, it could just lead to more plane beatings.

[Person Man]

Truman and Clinton were able to get their act enough soon enough to be reelected from this state but no one held on to Congress after something like this. Unless the Democrats are spent, Trump loses at least the House.

[Person Man]

Truman and Clinton were able to get their act enough soon enough to be reelected from this state but no one held on to Congress after something like this.

True, but the GOP victory in 1994 came from a 7 percentage point House popular vote margin.  And given current geographic distribution of Democratic and Republican voters, it's not at all a given that a 7 point margin of victory in the popular vote would actually result in the Democrats winning a majority of seats in the House.  It would probably be pretty close, with a margin like that.

I would think that it wouldn't translate directly because
1) Trump isn't running
2) As Reapportionment is aging, there might be regression back to natural composition of districts
3) Democrats will run a more targeted campaign and because they just have to go district by district, they will give up on certain issues as they need to stay competitive in that district they lost by 10 or 15 last time.

What is the biggest margin in a "rigged" midterm?  How much did a Party stay in majority despite losing?

[Person Man]

Anyone remember what happened in February-April 2006 to bring W down into the 30s for approvals?

It was a slow erosion of a once-high approval rating -- probably over the conduct of the Second Gulf War, secondarily over an economy showing signs of collapse (mass foreclosures and some bank failures).  

All the talking heads were still trying to sell the economy as strong all the way into Q2 2008. For their credit, getting a job wasn't that tough until the news broke that some big accounting office in France couldn't close the books. That was like in August. Then, no one was hiring until 2011.

I think that the protrayal of W as being unqualified and too conservative began to stick (though it was begining to just as the war broke out) after Saddam became a distant memory, his congress refused to vote on his scheme to cash out social security, and of course Katrina and Schaivo provided each a scenario showing he was both unqualified and too conservative. People started to listen to Democrats again by the fall of 05 and the economy was "meh, but great if you already had money" and on the backburner until the GE in 08.

[Person Man]

^ Montana is too entrenched with libertarians/conservatives to flip. That and the lack of population and big pop cities is why I still have it as R. For Missouri, HC got only 38.14% in 2016 so it is long gone for any Dem for a considerable period of time, even in a landslide. It votes like Appalachia, essentially.

There are big cities there still and I still think Missouri can pull an Indiana. Kansas City is becoming a hip young place, but its growing slowly and St.Louis is still slowly dying. So, I do see where you are coming from...

[Person Man]

FWIW, trump is at 50% approval in rasmussen, which was showing him underwater recently by 10-12 points.

Rassy is and always will be a joke polling company. No polling is better than Rassy.

While I agree, they did nail the 2016 election with their clintn +2 final poll.

Then again, approval polls =! election polls.

Rasmussen also had Trump tied or leading throughout the election only correcting themselves in November. They're junk.

Edit: He went from 43% to 50% in three days. Thats garbage.

They had Bush above water at least once in 2006.

[Person Man]

West Virginia still holding strong for Trump

Trump approval: 62/31

He carried it by 50 points right?
So that is in line with his national job approval

It's a Republican pollster. That's clear from the article, especially this last sentence:

"The People’s Pundit Daily (PPD Poll) Big Data Poll was recently featured in The Washington Times for conducting the most accurate state-level polling in 2016."

The Washington Times??? Really???

So he is down AT LEAST a few points everywhere...

If he doesn't MAGA by 2020, he loses unless the Democrats run the worst campaign ever....counting 2016 and Dewey.

[Person Man]

I've noticed that a lot of national pollsters seem to agree that his approval is around 36-39% but seem to disagree on disapproval.

Eh. I've noticed the opposite really, discounting Rasmussen. Almost every pollster has his disapproval hovering in the high 50's, but approval ranging from mid-30's to ~40

The size of the "give him a chance crowd" at appears to be the size the during the election of the "I know he's nuts, but I am sort of a bit conservative and maybe he will do a good job, so I dunno"

[Person Man]

Gallup (June 16th)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

He seems to be winning people back despite confirmation that he is under investigation.

[Person Man]

so much for the TRUMPSURGE

[Person Man]

In the case of Trump, there's probably a countervailing, contrarian trend to try to find reasons to support him, on the basis that "nobody else likes him; I can like him and so differentiate myself from All The Other Sheeple".

If his support is contrarian, that would by definition make you a Sheeple yourself far enough down the road.

PS we now just call sheeple cucks.

[Person Man]

Trump is done!

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Trump is so unpopular, the people will vote tomorrow to ALMOST do something about it.

[Person Man]

CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-handling-of-russia-investigations-weighs-on-approval-ratings

Approve 36% (-5 since April 26)
Disapprove 57%

Trump has seen an 11 point drop amoung Republicans since April.

21% Disapproving...that's Reagan Democrat levels of defection

Will those translate to nextD Republicans?

[Person Man]

I wonder if trump will get any sort of "bump" from handel winning, as it may cause suburban bimbo republican women soccer moms to jump back on bandwagon.

Any suburban Republican women lurking: this is what your man thinks of you.

[Person Man]

Gallup (June 22nd)

Approve 42% (+3)
Disapprove 54% (-2)

-

This seems like one of his quickest comebacks in approvals so far.

Anything in the news to explain the lurch to the right?

[Person Man]

Gallup (June 22nd)

Approve 42% (+3)
Disapprove 54% (-2)

-

This seems like one of his quickest comebacks in approvals so far.

Anything in the news to explain the lurch to the right?

The fact that there has been no nuclear elmo news for the past few days probably helps.

Remember: Americans have the memory of goldfish .

And I guess there could be a "minihoneymoon" from the Republicans running away with the nationaled  special election.
Maybe a lot of people are thinking Trump is the only game in town at the moment.

[Person Man]

I wonder what the Travel Ban will do?

[Person Man]

Pew: U.S. Image Suffers as Publics Around World Question Trump’s Leadership

http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/26/u-s-image-suffers-as-publics-around-world-question-trumps-leadership/

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Trump is rated significantly better than Obama (53/11) in only one country (I don't really have to name it, do I?) and slightly better (56/49) in one other, Israel.  He's rated worse than Obama in every other country surveyed, in many cases by large margins.

I wonder how that will affect us? Nothing really happened because of Bush. I guess a few countries pulled sharp left but as many became conservative.