Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[BudgieForce]

Highly controversial Trump is doing pretty well getting about 40% Approval among All Adults in the middle of Russia-scandal.

The likeliest worst case scenario is that Mueller's investigation will be inconclusive - Trumps campaign met Russians something something highly careless something something but no evidence. Probably not even that.

To my surprise MSM gambled a lot on RussiaGate. I think they thought they can beat him now, causing eroding of Approvals and impeachment or similar. Well, they seemingly failed.
When investigation is over, the rest of their credibility will be over as well, while Trump's "crazy" statement about "FakeNews" will be kind of justified.

In 2016 Trump was seriously hit by P***yGate. Really f**king seriously damaged by that (el tiempo todo calma). You better hope there is Pgate 2.0 or that Bernie will run.

P.S. The hope of business cycle something something recession is also an alternative

Im sorry but I had to make an account just to respond to this. No president in our history does "pretty well" with 38%-42% approval ratings. No president has been re-elected with those numbers and no president has kept congress with those numbers. More to the point, Nixon's approval ratings were in the 50s when the Watergate trial started.  F.Y.I, Trump went from even approvals to double digit disapprovals, he has been damaged.

[BudgieForce]

FWIW, trump is at 50% approval in rasmussen, which was showing him underwater recently by 10-12 points.

Rassy is and always will be a joke polling company. No polling is better than Rassy.

While I agree, they did nail the 2016 election with their clintn +2 final poll.

Then again, approval polls =! election polls.

Rasmussen also had Trump tied or leading throughout the election only correcting themselves in November. They're junk.

Edit: He went from 43% to 50% in three days. Thats garbage.

[BudgieForce]

Trump just tweeted

"The new Rasmussen Poll, one of the most accurate in the 2016 Election, just out with a Trump 50% Approval Rating.That's higher than O's #'s!"

Actually he is right.  Rasmussen was pretty much the most accurate pollster in the 2016 election (Clinton+2).

It is disingenuous to claim them as one of the most accurate pollsters of 2016. They were a consistent outliar in Trumps favor throughout the election. Just because they corrected themselves at the end doesnt mean there a good pollster.

[BudgieForce]

Its more helpful to average Gallup's number each week instead of looking at individual days. Big swings happen for no reason in tracking polls, Gallup is no exception.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

WTF Gallup?

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

WTF Gallup?

It's noisy.  Not surprising in a daily tracker.

I get that,  but its had multiple large swings this week.

[BudgieForce]

The Fox News poll looks abit too favorable for Trump but its averages out the Quinnipiac poll that looked too unfavorable of him.

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (July 2nd)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

Seems his Twitter feuds have had no net negative impact and, if anything, have improved his numbers.

Dont read too much into the daily fluctuations of a tracking poll.

[BudgieForce]

Trump is soaring in the polls!

Link

President Donald Trump’s personal ratings are also up -- a bit:  47 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of him.

As you said, personal ratings. Personal ratings are not job approval ratings. And going from 44 to 47 is with the MoE.

Fox News:
Approve: 44  (+4)
Disapprove: 50  (-3)

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2017/07/07/fox-news-poll-7717.html

Nothing worth tweeting about.

[BudgieForce]

What's interesting about those number? Republicans are less likely to believe news on Russia? Thats common knowledge.

[BudgieForce]

Faux News poll:



They conveniently leave out their June poll where he had a 44/50 split in this graphic.

Approvals on:

The economy: 45/46
Immigration: 42/53
North Korea: 41/45
Syria: 40/45
Iran: 37/44
Russia: 33/56
Health care: 32/59

First time he's been in the negatives on the economy.

I bet they spun it to sound favorably to him somehow.

They did leave out their June poll so now it looks like he his approval ratings went up +1 instead down -3.

[BudgieForce]

Wouldn't the most american states be the original thirteen colonies?

[BudgieForce]

This thread is like the go-to place for upset liberals.

"Another conservative judge put on a Federal court...let me go see if Trump's dropped -1 in gallup..."

That is...an incredibly low standard for success.

[BudgieForce]

Trump plummets to an all time low on Rasmussen Reports by 3%

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I cant wait for the mid-terms.

[BudgieForce]

Harvard Harris Poll:

Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 56%

http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Topline-HCAPS_July-Wave_Topline-Memo_Registered-Voters_Custom-Banners_7....pdf

[BudgieForce]

Gallup (August 1st)

Approve 36% (-1)
Disapprove 60% (+1)

*Gasp*

[BudgieForce]

I wouldn't start celebrating/panicking just yet with so much time till the midterms. Still, his approvals are approaching the point of no return.

[BudgieForce]

I wouldn't start celebrating/panicking just yet with so much time till the midterms. Still, his approvals are approaching the point of no return.

The thing is we are quickly moving pass the honeymoon phase and Trump's numbers are in the dump. And Trump doesn't have the political smarts like Bill Clinton to get himself out of this mess.

Still, Teflon Don seems to recover if he goes a week without a major gaff due to an extremely low bar. Granted, its been 2ish months of sub 40 approval ratings so I'm going to remain cautious.

[BudgieForce]

What would be the point of no return approval number? 30%? I think if Trump gets too low he will pull an LBJ and not run for reelection.

George W. Bush hovered around mid 30s throughout 2007. Once his soft base left, it collapsed into the mid 20s.

[BudgieForce]

His trendlines are closest to Gerald Ford (who lost reelection). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

How Trump compares with past presidents interactive -> click the 1 year option -> scroll down

Should be noted Gerald Ford was never underwater as much as Trump is. His disapprovals hovered in the 40's during the Nixon pardon.

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/892424547181395968

This is a relevant thread, where a guy talks about his model to convert generic ballot numbers to House seat changes. He claims that given incumbency/tenure/etc, Democrats will need 58% of the two-party vote to flip the House.

Not making the models here, just reporting them.

Democrats: permanent minority.

Every time there's a surprising or lopsided election result, some people will say that one of the parties is headed for a permanent majority.  I've seen this claim at least half a dozen times over the years.  It hasn't happened yet, and it's not likely to happen in the future.

I think republicans need only remember the feelings they had after Arlen Specter defected in 2009. I remember quite a few pundits talking about the permanent republican minority.

[BudgieForce]

No one should get caught up in the daily movements of a tracking poll. Your best bet is to average them out weekly.

[BudgieForce]

Trump hit a new low on RCP at 37.8% approve.

[BudgieForce]

CBS News Poll

Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 58%

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/trumps-approval-ratings-remain-low-while-his-ratings-on-economy-rise/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=40708117

[BudgieForce]

I dont know whats sadder. Trump tweeting a Zogby poll, or thinking 45% is actually something to be proud about.