Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If Sanders or a Sanders-esque candidate once again loses to an “establishment” candidate in the 2020 primaries, then I could easily see a repeat of this sort of thing.

I guess the question becomes who is the establishment "Third Way" so to speak neoliberal candidate in 2020? Even a moderate like Cuomo has a pretty progressive track record. Kamala Harris and Warren don't really fit this mold listening to their speeches. Joe Biden in his recent Harvard commencement speech almost sounded Sanders-esque at critical times during his speech. Klobuchar jut doesn't have the charisma to pose a serious challenge IMO.

The only sort of moderate guy/gal who talks about working with Republicans and finding common ground with the other side is Cory Booker. And that guy has a serious problem of sounding like he's "Telling a bed time story to a 5 year old" every time he's talking so I have serious doubts he'll win the nomination.

I suspect that "finding common ground with Republicans" is going to spell doom in the primaries to anyone on the record as promoting it. And a nominee who openly talks about wanting "bipartisanship" or to "work across the aisle" is probably Trump (or any GOP candidate's) best hope. My personal read is that a big swathe of the party are DONE making nice to Republicans.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Gallup (July 27th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 54% (-1)

Recently, there have been strange rollercoaster-like swings.

Noise. I doubt we see any major drop in his support for a while unless there's a recession. Conversely, I really doubt he has any ability to significantly increase his support outside of a 9/11 level event.

I think a disaster of some sort could hurt his support as well. Look at what Katrina did to W, and then imagine an even worse response with utterly tone-deaf PR from the White House.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

When McCain left the floor before the vote, he went to take a call from Trump

He was unable to change his mind.

I cannot imagine why not.


Trump attacks McCain: 'I like people who weren't captured'
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/trump-attacks-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured-120317

Trump Calls McCain Loser, Not a War Hero
http://abcnews.go.com/US/video/donald-trump-calls-mccain-loser-war-hero-32556131


Like most conmen, Trump is accustomed to being able to regularly move on to new victims. He is utterly unprepared to need to keep dealing with the same people. (Having much of his vile nonsense on record isn't doing the aspiring war-criminal any favors either.)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Mitt Romney is a prophet. He was right about Russia and right about Donald Trump too. It was the voters who grievously harmed themselves by refusing to listen to him.

He's was even right about the entitled 47% who will vote for their party no matter what and refuse to take responsibility for what they do.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Do you think his numbers will dip below freezing?

Eventually. Remember in January how people weee mocking the idea that Trump would hit below 40? Lol

I think it depends on the time horizon:

Eventually: yes, 100%
Soon (next 3 months): no, not likely - baring a major, sudden recession or the pee tape.

Three months may be possible given the trajectory we're going and constant terrible headlines from self-inflicted wounds (that anyone would be foolish to think will just suddenly go away). He's gone from mid-40's to about mid-30's in six months. Dropping another ~5% or so isn't really unreasonable by November. Hell, if there's a recession or a foreign policy disaster, it may even be likely. But if I was to guess now, I'd say wait until spring 2018 or so til it drops to low 30's and disapproval is consistently breaking 60%.

Agree but that is predicated on no war, Trump would get a RATF bounce from a US-NK war.

Not necessarily, and I would argue they'd go down. Americans are super weary of war, and there's no real benefit of the doubt that the media and Democrats will give Trump like they did to Bush in 2002. The Iraq war happened because of 9/11. Starting something with North Korea is completely disanalogous.

I agree. Remember that candidate Trump liked to talk (as did candidate Bush) about ending nation-building, and getting us out of foreign interventions. A war of choice by Trump could backfire badly on him.

Really, what he's probably hoping for is a major terrorist attack (by brown people he can use to focus his xenophobia, not Trump supporters) ideally from some place he can go invade and proclaim victory.  Trump probably dreams about Eco-Communist Guatemalan Muslim terrorists blowing up the Senate.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Gallup (August 4th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-3)

According to your logic should be 30%?

Let's check back in another 6 months to see if his trend line continues

The trend for the past couple of months has been essentially flat, as shown in the graph on the Gallup page.  The day-to-day changes in that period are just the normal variations that should be expected; the MOE on these polls is +/-3%.

Yeah. On the RCP average, his spread has been within two points of -15% since mid-May. Too early to tell if the recent slump is a real change or just a blip.

I'm hoping it represents more Americans coming to their senses, of course. But I'm not holding my breath. If Trump can stay out of the public eye and shut up for two and a half weeks without anything exploding inside or outside the administration, that will probably benefit his numbers.

Of course, that "hide in a hole and hope nothing breaks" is the best he can probably do is a damning indictment of him and his presidency.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Also FTR, today is the first day Trump hit -20 net approval on RCP.

Up until this recent dive, he'd been stable, drifting around -15 net at RCP since mid-May. I'm hoping his popularity will continue to dive, but suspect we'll just hit another metastable point. The question is how low it will be.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Why do 5% of Black people have a favorable view of white supremacists?

5% of people have a favorable opinion of just about anything. You could probably find 5% of people who had a favorable opinion of cancer.

Don't forget to allow for sarcastic answers.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The spread on his disapproval/approval rating has been within 2 points of -17 since the dip at the start of August. Before that, it had been within the same margin of -15 since mid-May. Trump has taken a small but solid hit, and I really doubt its ever coming back.

The hurricane news does help in the short term. It mostly gets him off the air and out of the news, and what you see is mostly him not screwing up (yet). So it's preventing further drops. But Trump is going to Trump. The only real question is how long until the next small or large drop.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Tax reform will cause suburb gop to trend d

Can't wait to have MI, PA, WI, and IA back in the Democratic column!

We have three of the dreariest years in American history in which to wait.

For you they will be bad but for true Americans they will not be. 8 years of a weak corrupt and parasitic government, now it's your turn to cry like us.

What do you mean by a true American? Someone who believes in a certain ideology?

He means white peope in red hats. -.-

He might as well have said True Aryans. But that would demonstrate too much honesty and knowledge of history from any Trump cultist.