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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Torie)
| | |-+  Correlation between convention state & win/loss
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Author Topic: Correlation between convention state & win/loss  (Read 208 times)
Fmr. Pres. Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« on: May 18, 2017, 10:18:39 pm »
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Observations:

10% of the time, both parties have lost
22% of the time, both parties have won
68% of the time, one party won and one party lost
  • 27% of the time, Dems won/GOP lost
  • 41% of the time, GOP won/Dems lost

Only 4 out of the 26 elections in the past century have had conventions where either both parties won or lost their respective convention states. In the remaining 22, one party won while one party lost. Prior to that, both parties winning their conventions' states occurred about half the time.

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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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Megameow
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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2017, 10:24:12 pm »
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So in short, it doesn't matter where you have your convention, it doesn't improve your chances of winning the state.
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Fmr. Pres. Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2017, 10:31:28 pm »
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So in short, it doesn't matter where you have your convention, it doesn't improve your chances of winning the state.

Pretty much.

If you arbitrarily measure from 1964 onward, both parties have won the states their conventions were in 50% of the time and lost 50% of the time.

From 1932 onward, Dems maintain the 50/50 (11/11) and GOP lost 55% of the time (12/10).

From 1856 onward, Dems essentially break even by losing 51% (21/20); GOP wins 63% of the time (26/15), thanks in no small part to them consistently holding conventions in northern states throughout the 19th century.
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To some extent, Griffin was in many ways elected as a War time President because he viewed, not as the guy you want a beer with, but the guy you would go to a bar fight with.
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