Bernie's chances of winning 2020 primary?
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PoliticalShelter
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« on: May 19, 2017, 05:10:30 PM »
« edited: May 19, 2017, 05:13:12 PM by PoliticalShelter »

There is quite a bit of speculation about whether Bernie is going to run in 2020, usually with assumption that if he does he would be the favourite to win the primary.

But how well would he really do.

How much would his age be a factor?

How much of his 2016 vote was down to anti Clinton sentiment and would likely vote for another candidate?

What are the chances of another lefty and/or anti-establishment candidate would also to decide to run in 2020?

How much would changes in the primary system affect his chances? (southern states increasing number delegates/ rust belt losing delegates, California possibly being moved up to third)

Thoughts?
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cxs018
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2017, 05:12:29 PM »

I feel like he's the favorite (barring maybe Biden) if he runs, but I highly doubt he will.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2017, 05:46:20 PM »

His only hope is if it is a crowded field. He will not win in a one on one match up as I am sure the other candidate will be someone who will swallow up the black vote in the south and in Northern states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, and New Jersey. So it depends.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2017, 06:00:26 PM »

To win the Democratic primary, he'd have to win a lot of voters over that weren't exactly favorable to him the first time and have no reason to be in another cycle. It's overlooked, but he got nowhere close to winning the nomination in 2016.
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henster
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« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2017, 06:05:06 PM »

His age wasn't really a big issue in 2016 because the age gap between him and Hillary was not that big. If the field has people like Booker, Gillibrand, Harris, Bullock who are in their 40's/50's and Sanders who may end up being the oldest candidate he will struggle.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2017, 08:02:45 PM »

He'll start out as the favorite but fade when other candidates adopt similar policy planks and present them better than he can. They may not want someone who's "anti-establishment" and "outsider".
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2017, 08:14:16 PM »

He's the obvious front-runner.
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Shadows
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« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2017, 11:31:11 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 03:52:14 AM by Shadows »

If he runs, it will likely because he is fit enough & in that case he will likely win. In a crowded field, it will be a landslide win, in a 1 on 1, it would be closer. He won 46% of the Pledged delegates with all the issues in 2016. Just retaining that vote is enough to get past the 50% with more open primaries & young voters (13-17) coming in & older one's dying. The Democratic party is being taken over by Bernie if people are not noticing.

The only person who will make it close is Biden & it may be again a close dragged down primary. Cory Booker & the rest are a joke, I saw Booker next to Bernie when they were introducing the new drug bill & Booker was a complete boy, being poked around by Bernie when he wants - And he is supposed to be the strongest Dem candidate.

I remember there were many clueless folks here who created a false narrative that Iowa & NH were the 2 most liberal states & if Bernie couldn't win Iowa, he wouldn't win anywhere (This is way before & after Iowa & everybody was on this bandwagon! ). You guys can continue to under-estimate Bernie & be humiliated time & again.
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Frodo
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« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2017, 11:55:56 PM »

I don't want either Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, or Joe Biden as our nominee.  I don't even want Elizabeth Warren.  It's time for a new generation to take over. 
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Canis
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2017, 12:04:33 AM »

in all the polling since febuary he has led in the primary if he does run I think the only one who can stop him is Joe Biden all the other candidates would be jokes compared to him
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MM876
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2017, 03:18:44 AM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 02:21:12 PM by MM876 »

Bernie Sanders, for all intents and purposes, is now the face of the Democratic Party. He's the most visible, he's the one crisscrossing the country to campaign for downballot races, he's the one with new ideas (relative to this generation at least) in a party that just suffered a humiliating defeat by clinging to the past. Schumer, Pelosi, Warren, Clinton and Obama are not as visible or as prominent as Bernie any more.

If he runs, Bernie will win. It's just a matter of whether he is fit enough and whether he actually wants the job, and on both counts its not entirely certain.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #11 on: May 20, 2017, 11:09:21 AM »

If he's alive. 20%.

It will go to either Booker, Gillibrand, Warren, or Harris.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #12 on: May 20, 2017, 11:30:31 AM »

In a way, I think the question many are asking is backwards: “Will he have a good chance of winning if he runs?”.  Maybe instead it should be “Will he run if and only if he has a good chance of winning?”

At that age, maybe you only want to run if you think your chances of winning both the nomination and the general election are very high.  And so, if his health in 2019 is excellent, that’ll make him more likely to run.  But also, if he sees a clear path, and the field takes shape in a way that leaves him as the heavy favorite, then he’s more likely to run than if other candidates are filling his niche.

So if he runs, then he might have a ~50% chance of winning the nomination.  But that’s because he’s only going to run if events develop in such a way that his chances reach a threshold like that.  I don’t think they’d be that high if he was determined to run no matter what.
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Medal506
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« Reply #13 on: May 20, 2017, 11:49:45 AM »



He was the runner up in a very close democratic primary last year and in the polls he's the front runner but only is at 20 percent at most. That's not a good sign for him if you ask me
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The Mikado
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« Reply #14 on: May 20, 2017, 12:22:43 PM »

Sanders will turn 79 a month after election day in 2020. By the time his first term would end in January, 2025, he'll be 83 years old. If he's a two-termer, he'll exit office just after his 87th birthday.

The human body really starts to go to pieces after a certain point, and a president who will be in his 80s most of his term is really asking for America to have to get very familiar with a lot of end-of-life illnesses.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #15 on: May 20, 2017, 12:53:49 PM »

Sanders will turn 79 a month after election day in 2020. By the time his first term would end in January, 2025, he'll be 83 years old. If he's a two-termer, he'll exit office just after his 87th birthday.

The human body really starts to go to pieces after a certain point, and a president who will be in his 80s most of his term is really asking for America to have to get very familiar with a lot of end-of-life illnesses.
I concur with this. Taking office, Sanders would be older than Reagan when he RETIRED in 1989. Not to mention, Reagan was falling apart by then.
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Shadows
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« Reply #16 on: May 20, 2017, 02:27:17 PM »

He's probably not going to be a 2 termer but age is a very subjective thing, FDR died in his office at 63, lost the movement of his legs etc but was still kicking ass in the 1940's ! Hillary was younger than Bernie & in much worse shape, could barely campaign continously (needed rests, fewer stops, this health condition or that). There is barely a prominent Democrat who can keep up with Bernie even now with his ridiculous schedule & rallies - As a matter of fact most young journalists in their 20's & 30's were struggling to keep pace with him (he was doing 6-7 rallies a day sometimes in even 3-4 different states).

And he did 14 rallies in 12 states for Hillary in the last 5-6 days running coast to coast. If he is in around that kind of health, that he can travel like mad & campaign, damn right he will run! Jimmy Carter is 92 & is in decent health !

And Reagan had Alzheimer's right which is why he started to decline? But he still got more stuff than any Republican President in history for the "Conservative ideology". As a matter of fact, FDR & Reagan are the 2 most successful (atleast for their parties) & transformative presidents who brought a re-alignment & both were pretty old compared to their times !
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #17 on: May 20, 2017, 07:31:57 PM »

He's probably not going to be a 2 termer but age is a very subjective thing, FDR died in his office at 63, lost the movement of his legs etc but was still kicking ass in the 1940's !
FDR and Bernie Sanders aren't even comparable. President Roosevelt was a formidable politician, not to mention he was relatively young and very charismatic when he was elected President. On top of that, the U.S. was in the worst economic situation in history, and FDR appealed to both the left and the right in 1932. Sanders? Not so much. I've heard the comparison of FDR and Sanders multiple times, and really, it's a bunch of malarkey.

As for their health, FDR's polio barely affected him, plus the press managed to keep it secret. It was the classic presidential aging combined with the largest war in history that caused his health to go under. 99% sure Sanders is not immune to presidential aging.

Hillary was younger than Bernie & in much worse shape, could barely campaign continously (needed rests, fewer stops, this health condition or that).

You have a good point here, but we don't know how Sanders will be when he's two years shy of being eighty.

There is barely a prominent Democrat who can keep up with Bernie even now with his ridiculous schedule & rallies - As a matter of fact most young journalists in their 20's & 30's were struggling to keep pace with him (he was doing 6-7 rallies a day sometimes in even 3-4 different states).

And he did 14 rallies in 12 states for Hillary in the last 5-6 days running coast to coast. If he is in around that kind of health, that he can travel like mad & campaign, damn right he will run! Jimmy Carter is 92 & is in decent health !

This is a bit subjective. There were no substantial Democratic candidates in 2016 besides him and Hillary. I can guarantee Booker, Gillibrand, and Cuomo could have the power to do more than that if they choose to do so. I'd like to see a source on these claims. Also, Carter's health is irrelevant. He hasn't been in elected office in nearly four decades.


And Reagan had Alzheimer's right which is why he started to decline? But he still got more stuff than any Republican President in history for the "Conservative ideology". As a matter of fact, FDR & Reagan are the 2 most successful (atleast for their parties) & transformative presidents who brought a re-alignment & both were pretty old compared to their times !

Reagan had Alzheimer's at the end of his term when he was 77, one year younger than Sanders if he were to take office in 2020. You keep using these presidents who were decades younger than Sanders in 2020 who had health problems at the ends of their presidencies. There's a lot of holes in this argument.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2017, 08:36:12 PM »

If he runs, and one/two(?) of Gabbard, Franken, Warren, and Harris do not run, then I'd put his odds at 30-45%.
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Fuzzy Stands With His Friend, Chairman Sanchez
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« Reply #19 on: May 20, 2017, 09:09:48 PM »

Yes, he really is.  To cement that, Bernie really needs to register as a Democrat.  But Bernie, more than anyone else, is really becoming the face of the Democrats.
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Shameless Lefty Hack
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« Reply #20 on: May 20, 2017, 09:18:48 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 09:20:28 PM by Shameless Bernie Hack »


FDR and Bernie Sanders aren't even comparable. President Roosevelt was a formidable politician, not to mention he was relatively young and very charismatic when he was elected President.

I'm not going to bother with speculation about Bernie's potential primary performance because I just fundamentally don't think he's gonna run.

But thinking he's not a formidable politician? You try building a viable left wing third party in a state known most for its moderate Republicans (at the time), win statewide office for 30 years, and then almost beat the entire Democratic party in its own Presidential primary against the only party royalty in the last 100 years not named Kennedy. Come back to me after that and tell me he's not formidable.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: May 20, 2017, 09:41:00 PM »

Bernie and Warren aren't gonna run and make way for either Tulsi Gabbard or Cory Booker, their counterparts, in running.
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Shadows
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« Reply #22 on: May 21, 2017, 01:00:15 AM »

He's probably not going to be a 2 termer but age is a very subjective thing, FDR died in his office at 63, lost the movement of his legs etc but was still kicking ass in the 1940's !
FDR and Bernie Sanders aren't even comparable. President Roosevelt was a formidable politician, not to mention he was relatively young and very charismatic when he was elected President. On top of that, the U.S. was in the worst economic situation in history, and FDR appealed to both the left and the right in 1932. Sanders? Not so much. I've heard the comparison of FDR and Sanders multiple times, and really, it's a bunch of malarkey.

As for their health, FDR's polio barely affected him, plus the press managed to keep it secret. It was the classic presidential aging combined with the largest war in history that caused his health to go under. 99% sure Sanders is not immune to presidential aging.

Hillary was younger than Bernie & in much worse shape, could barely campaign continously (needed rests, fewer stops, this health condition or that).

You have a good point here, but we don't know how Sanders will be when he's two years shy of being eighty.

There is barely a prominent Democrat who can keep up with Bernie even now with his ridiculous schedule & rallies - As a matter of fact most young journalists in their 20's & 30's were struggling to keep pace with him (he was doing 6-7 rallies a day sometimes in even 3-4 different states).

And he did 14 rallies in 12 states for Hillary in the last 5-6 days running coast to coast. If he is in around that kind of health, that he can travel like mad & campaign, damn right he will run! Jimmy Carter is 92 & is in decent health !

This is a bit subjective. There were no substantial Democratic candidates in 2016 besides him and Hillary. I can guarantee Booker, Gillibrand, and Cuomo could have the power to do more than that if they choose to do so. I'd like to see a source on these claims. Also, Carter's health is irrelevant. He hasn't been in elected office in nearly four decades.


And Reagan had Alzheimer's right which is why he started to decline? But he still got more stuff than any Republican President in history for the "Conservative ideology". As a matter of fact, FDR & Reagan are the 2 most successful (atleast for their parties) & transformative presidents who brought a re-alignment & both were pretty old compared to their times !

Reagan had Alzheimer's at the end of his term when he was 77, one year younger than Sanders if he were to take office in 2020. You keep using these presidents who were decades younger than Sanders in 2020 who had health problems at the ends of their presidencies. There's a lot of holes in this argument.


I don't really believe in blindly following precedents for that matter, every human is different & I have seen people in their 80's be much healthier than many people in their 60's (this is anecdotal evidence) & hence can't be generalized. But the point is different human beings are different, there are many exceptions.

And times most importantly change. For one, someone who was 60 in the 1940's will be likely in much worse physical health than someone in the 80's in 2000's because technology, healthcare, everything has changed, people are living longer & healthier & so on. My point is Reagan had a disease which slowed him down but during his time he was the oldest, yet the most transformative President since FDR. His age was a big issue in re-elections, yet from a legislative agenda or otherwise or even in campaigning & debate, he was successful.

The FDR comparison isn't true. FDR lost the use of his legs & much of the details was kept away from the media. As a matter of fact, FDR wanted to give up politics & couldn't campaign, Eleanor Roosevelt went & campaigned for him in the Governor race. And even during execution of the New Deal, Eleanor went around & would give up updates on implementation, I could write essays of Eleanor, remarkable woman.

The point isn't if Booker or Gillibrand is fit or not fit enough. O'Malley was the young guy & Bernie did more number of rallies & travelled more than him too. There is no way to look into Booker's history, but going through Bernie Sanders' schedule, the guy is still doing rallies & travelling, playing hooves, having fun, etc. The point is he at the moment working harder in engaging the grassroots, travelling the country in the heat & cold than any of the so-called future stars many of whom are busy with fundraisers.

We don't know what kind of health he will be, but currently he is in great health outworking people, so we will see in 2019 or 2020 ! Anyways, I will make a separate post about FDR & Bernie !
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Shadows
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« Reply #23 on: May 21, 2017, 01:18:11 AM »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 01:23:55 AM by Shadows »

@ Admiral - My primary reason for support of Bernie is that he is a once in a 100 year odd candidate, in the mould of FDR, the closest version to what we can get of FDR, what FDR would probably be in today's time.

FDR -

FDR's policies were considered extremely radical. Not just a socialist, many called him a Marxist. The Supreme Court struck down part of his 1st phase of New Deal due to government over-reach. When FDR took over the Income tax rate was 25% (top marginal rate), when he left it was 90%+. As a matter of fact, FDR time & again tried to put a 100% Income tax which would be a maximum wage which Congress vetoed. Now that is a radical idea.

That was a time where people didn't think government was responsible for the welfare of the people & the relation of government with people was changed. I wouldn't go through details of the massive expansion of government that he did. But Social Security, a guaranteed income for seniors was a revolutionary idea. Minimum Wage which would permanently destroy the so-called free market of labour was his implementation (at a time when very few countries did, NZ or Australia where the 1st country to implement Minimum wage).

FDR was a candidate who was the anti economic royalist candidate, railing against the corporate & financial elite when everybody ganged up on him. This was his 1936 speech -

We had to struggle with the old enemies of peace--business and financial monopoly, speculation, reckless banking, class antagonism, sectionalism, war profiteering. They had begun to consider the Government of the United States as a mere appendage to their own affairs. We know now that Government by organized money is just as dangerous as Government by organized mob. Never before in all our history have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today. They are unanimous in their hate for me--and I welcome their hatred.

Glass Steagall, Securities & Exchange Commission, Federal Deposit insurance, etc - I could go on & on.

Before he died FDR proposed a 2nd bill of rights (which would have been had he been alive) -

> Employment, Food, clothing, and leisure with enough income to support them
> Farmers' rights to a fair income
> Freedom from unfair competition and monopolies
> Housing
> Medical care
> Social security
> Education

(Guaranteed healthcare, employment, a certain income, housing, education etc)

Loot at FDR & Labour


The National Industrial Recovery Act (1933) provided for collective bargaining. The 1935 National Labor Relations Act (also known as the Wagner Act) required businesses to bargain in good faith with any union supported by the majority of their employees.


FDR faced massive opposition from conservatives in his own party too & he had to abandon his new deal & the result was a recession - The 1938 Roosevelt Recession ! That was before John. Maynard Keynes had proved his Keynesian economics which every country follows now !

Bernie & the current situation - You are right in the way that the economic situation is not the same. The great depression was the worst economic disaster in recent human history. But there are some similarities - Massive concentration of economic power, huge income inequality, stagnating or falling wages for most of the population, banking crisis, economic elites controlling the country, a reckless & out of control financial sector, weak labour sector

Most of Bernie's policies are directly borrowed from FDR. As a matter of fact his foreign policy, so-called democratic socialism policies are all inspired by FDR.

They are different in the sense that FDR came from a famous family, was part of a major party, etc. Bernie is an outsider Independent candidate but in many ways both their policies (both are from New York) & there are many similarities.









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Shadows
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« Reply #24 on: May 21, 2017, 01:35:14 AM »
« Edited: May 21, 2017, 01:42:46 AM by Shadows »


@ Admiral - Would love to discuss FDR (& Eleanor for that matter) in details, would be great if we had a separate thread for all that. FDR is my favorite President & Bernie's uncanny resemblence to FDR is one of the reason why I like him !

This was FDR, people paint a different picture as he beat the Nazis & saved people from the great depression. But this was FDR -












Another of your favorite, Harry Truman, who was called a communist & viciously opposed by AMA & politicians because  he wanted Single Payer universal healthcare & campaigned on it. His Fair Deal Letter -




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