Bernie's chances of winning 2020 primary?

[Mr. Morden]

In a way, I think the question many are asking is backwards: “Will he have a good chance of winning if he runs?”.  Maybe instead it should be “Will he run if and only if he has a good chance of winning?”

At that age, maybe you only want to run if you think your chances of winning both the nomination and the general election are very high.  And so, if his health in 2019 is excellent, that’ll make him more likely to run.  But also, if he sees a clear path, and the field takes shape in a way that leaves him as the heavy favorite, then he’s more likely to run than if other candidates are filling his niche.

So if he runs, then he might have a ~50% chance of winning the nomination.  But that’s because he’s only going to run if events develop in such a way that his chances reach a threshold like that.  I don’t think they’d be that high if he was determined to run no matter what.