Impeachment of Trump
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jman123
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« on: May 19, 2017, 06:34:03 PM »

Do you think it's possible that some GOP lawmakers might sign on to impeach Trump if these damaging leaks keep getting bigger?
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2017, 06:37:13 PM »

I think impeachment hearings start after Mueller's reports.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #2 on: May 20, 2017, 05:38:49 AM »

I think impeachment hearings start after Mueller's reports.

Is there any schedule when this might happen?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2017, 06:33:20 AM »

I think impeachment hearings start after Mueller's reports.

Is there any schedule when this might happen?

No, he has no deadline.  It takes as long as it takes, and this investigation is likely to take a long time.  Probably a few months at the minimum.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2017, 06:48:06 AM »

I think impeachment hearings start after Mueller's reports.

Is there any schedule when this might happen?

No, he has no deadline.  It takes as long as it takes, and this investigation is likely to take a long time.  Probably a few months at the minimum.

If it happens: The closer the impeachment is to the midterms, the better for Democrats. Just like Watergate.
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2017, 09:20:39 AM »

I think impeachment hearings start after Mueller's reports.

Is there any schedule when this might happen?

No, he has no deadline.  It takes as long as it takes, and this investigation is likely to take a long time.  Probably a few months at the minimum.

If it happens: The closer the impeachment is to the midterms, the better for Democrats. Just like Watergate.

The ideal situation for democrats would be is if there is a recommendation of adverse action sometimes next year and the economy only destabilizes the year after that.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2017, 11:27:30 AM »

Its obvious the senior staffer that Mueller is looking at, that won't reveal his name, in the adverse action is Mike Pence.  But, its speculation.  However, if the whole WH team goes down with the Flynn investigation, it will be beneficial to Dems.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2017, 11:38:22 AM »

I think impeachment hearings start after Mueller's reports.

Is there any schedule when this might happen?

No schedule, but it would be pretty typical if the investigation took years, not months. I wouldn't be shocked if Mueller doesn't weigh in until 2019 or so.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2017, 01:14:07 PM »

Its obvious the senior staffer that Mueller is looking at, that won't reveal his name, in the adverse action is Mike Pence.  But, its speculation.  However, if the whole WH team goes down with the Flynn investigation, it will be beneficial to Dems.


I'm pretty sure multiple sources have already said the senior staffer is Kush.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2017, 07:05:36 PM »

Rep. Green has been threatened with lynching for calling for impeachment: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/334417-congressman-threatened-with-lynching-after-calling-for-trumps
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #10 on: May 20, 2017, 08:57:06 PM »
« Edited: May 20, 2017, 09:28:25 PM by TD »

Anyway, I’m of the belief impeachment is probable. (Or some sort of resignation). The following reasons are probably why.

1. There are at least two obstruction of justice charges. One is Comey’s firing over the broader Russian investigation and the asking Comey to drop the Flynn investigation. However, these two alone don’t probably lead to impeachment. What makes me more suspicious …

2. The White House is attempting to obstruct an investigation by Mueller into Manafort and Kushner. It suggests strongly that if the White House had nothing to hide they wouldn't be trying to block him from investigating Kushner, Ivanka Trump, or Paul Manafort. However, Rodstein has anticipated this most likely because of this.

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Link here. Of course, if Justice succeeds, Mueller will simply raise a hue and cry and someone will grant the waiver.

Regardless, it is highly suspicious the White House would try to weaken any prosecution case brought forth by Mueller against these individuals. It stands to reason that the White House cannot justify that these people are completely innocent.

If Kushner goes down, Trump goes down. It is highly improbable that Kushner did anything without Trump’s foreknowledge. And it is highly improbable that Trump would be able to continue governing if his son in law is indicted or convicted. The many myriad Kushner-Trump connections reported suggest that there IS some possibly highly unethical/illegal stuff.

3. Paul Manafort, Carter Page, and Mike Flynn (the guy who will most likely bring Trump down) all have professional, business, and/or financial ties to Russia. Paul Manafort, in particular, is one of the people the White House is trying to shield from investigation by Mueller. New York, in addition, is also investigating him. Mike Flynn’s woes are well documented as is the President’s strange desire to protect him.

Flynn, in particular, has documented ties with the Turkish government, and a $500,000 payment from them and documented actions of stalling an anti-ISIS operation. Trump's continued insistence of defending him despite all these facts (and hiring him even though he was under federal investigation; hiring him, in fact, because he insisted on being NSA) is suggestive that Flynn is either a) really close to Trump b) Flynn may know details about the case that Trump does not want divulged.  

4. Trump has a long and extensive history of ties to Russian mobs and the mafia. His dealings at Trump Tower and other business dealings have put him in contact with shady businesses. He has retained these contacts throughout the years.

5. Trump’s tax returns have been shielded from us. They would indicate some sort of unethical conduct or possible connections Trump does not want us to know; that much is painfully clear. Or worse, they would indicate links to certain criminal organizations that the IRS wouldn’t necessarily see. Mueller has the power to subpoena them and look at them, as part of a criminal investigation. Which brings me to my third point …

6. Mueller’s investigation is not a fact finding investigation. Legally, it is a criminal investigation and one thing they are investigating is the possible cover ups.

7. When Comey testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee, he will likely testify that he believed there was a cover up. Mueller may likely come to the same conclusion. This is definitely going to keep public interest alive into the scandal.  

8. The Trump Organization is still nominally owned by Donald Trump and the blind trust isn’t exactly a blind trust (he can withdraw money anytime; he can see some basic reports). The Emolument clause and the like play into this point.
 
9. What’s strange is that we’ve had to fight every step of the way for a full investigation. Sessions was forced to recuse after the Washington Post’s revelations on February 13; otherwise, Sessions would be in charge, not Rodstein. Comey was fired, and we know from the Wall Street Journal that he had been increasingly concerned by Trump-Russian connections in the weeks leading up to it. Congressional Republicans have refused to have a real investigation and tried to slow walk everything until a special counsel became impossible to avoid.

Most intriguingly, Donald Trump has rejected the assertion that Russia tried to help him win the election and during the course of his Presidency, consistently behaves similarly to Marine LePen when dealing with Putin.

By itself, any of these 9 points are not conclusive. Combined together, though, they constitute a set of damaging information that probably brings down the President especially now that Mueller will likely have free rein to investigate each and every one of these points.

Mueller, in effect, cannot be dismissed from the investigation. Comey’s firing has made it politically impossible to dismiss Mueller; Trump’s comments February 14 and last week make it impossible for the Justice Department to even consider dismissing Mueller. His own sterling reputation as a former FBI Director for 12 years also makes it highly likely that his report will be taken as the gospel truth.

Minimum: I’d expect Flynn to be indicted and convicted, for sure; ditto Manafort (either by the federal government or NY’s AG). I expect Mueller to look at indicting Kushner, possibly. And absolutely, I expect extensive information to be dredged up about Trump Organization and its business dealings overseas. Oh, and Mueller will definitely say something about the tax returns, I imagine.

At all of this, Congressional Republicans - who have a weak personal relationship with Trump - will probably cut bait and switch to Pence. They have intense loyalty to the President, but remember this: Trump has no long standing connection to the GOP base like Nixon did. He won both the nomination and the general with a plurality, not majority, of the votes. His approval ratings will continue to be toxic most likely. His political inexperience will remain a handicap and will continue damaging him and Congressional Republicans. When it comes down to keeping the majority with Pence or losing it with Trump, I think they decide to install Pence and hope the base is just relieved to not defend the bad news cycles.

This assumes, of course, that Pence is not complicit. I assume at that point, they just keep moving down the line of succession …
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Crumpets
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« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2017, 02:31:52 AM »

TD's post really emphasizes how much of a hole Trump has dug himself. Let's assume for a minute that Trump has absolutely no nefarious connections with Russians, that the whole pee tape is fake, and really this is all smoke without fire. Here's what would have happened:

- Trump occasionally does business with Russia, but nothing nefarious, or different than any other business magnate does.
- Trump sees on the news some day that the DNC's been hacked, loves it, and goes on to publicly cheer the attack. Nothing too weird there.
- Trump eventually finds out the Russians were behind the attack. Why should he care? What they did helped him, he like it at the time, and Putin seems like a guy who's generally got his back.
- Comey goes after Clinton and probably gives Trump a last-minute boost. Trump loves this too.
- Trump thinks about hiring Flynn. Obama tells him not to, so of course he's going to do it.
- Eventually Trump hears that there are accusations that Russia helped deliver the election to Trump so they could use him as a puppet. This infuriates him, since he thinks he did it all by himself, and he never even talked to a Russian contact at any point throughout the campaign. Clearly a witch hunt to destroy his presidency!
- Trump fires Flynn, seeing that he's become a liability in the PR sphere, but still thinks he's a good guy and will re-hire him once all these accusations get "exposed" and it all blows over.
- Trump hears Comey might be looking into these accusations. What a shmuck! He thought Comey was on his side! A total betrayal! He should know there's nothing to these Russia claims!
- Trump fires Comey, since he's clearly lost his senses, and figures someone else will be able to do the job with fewer distractions.

And even that is illegal.

Trump doesn't seem to realize that even if there is no there there, disrupting an investigation is still itself a crime. At this point, it doesn't even matter if Trump had any connection to the Russians, as long as there's evidence he committed obstruction of justice, just as it never really mattered if Nixon knew about the Watergate break-in beforehand.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2017, 02:42:33 AM »

TD's post really emphasizes how much of a hole Trump has dug himself. Let's assume for a minute that Trump has absolutely no nefarious connections with Russians, that the whole pee tape is fake, and really this is all smoke without fire. Here's what would have happened:

- Trump occasionally does business with Russia, but nothing nefarious, or different than any other business magnate does.
- Trump sees on the news some day that the DNC's been hacked, loves it, and goes on to publicly cheer the attack. Nothing too weird there.
- Trump eventually finds out the Russians were behind the attack. Why should he care? What they did helped him, he like it at the time, and Putin seems like a guy who's generally got his back.
- Comey goes after Clinton and probably gives Trump a last-minute boost. Trump loves this too.
- Trump thinks about hiring Flynn. Obama tells him not to, so of course he's going to do it.
- Eventually Trump hears that there are accusations that Russia helped deliver the election to Trump so they could use him as a puppet. This infuriates him, since he thinks he did it all by himself, and he never even talked to a Russian contact at any point throughout the campaign. Clearly a witch hunt to destroy his presidency!
- Trump fires Flynn, seeing that he's become a liability in the PR sphere, but still thinks he's a good guy and will re-hire him once all these accusations get "exposed" and it all blows over.
- Trump hears Comey might be looking into these accusations. What a shmuck! He thought Comey was on his side! A total betrayal! He should know there's nothing to these Russia claims!
- Trump fires Comey, since he's clearly lost his senses, and figures someone else will be able to do the job with fewer distractions.

And even that is illegal.

Trump doesn't seem to realize that even if there is no there there, disrupting an investigation is still itself a crime. At this point, it doesn't even matter if Trump had any connection to the Russians, as long as there's evidence he committed obstruction of justice, just as it never really mattered if Nixon knew about the Watergate break-in beforehand.

It would be a crime for the traditional citizen, but Impeachment is not a matter of whether the law is broken, but whether the senate feels, by a 2/3 majority, whether the president's actions fall under the circumstances for Impeachment called for in the Constitution, which are Treason (not applicable here), Bribery (not applicable here), and "other high crimes or misdemeanors", which the senate can define however they like. Unless there's a direct connection between Trump and Russia, you aren't getting a conviction in the Senate due to the way to the 2/3 majority requirement being bottled up by republican loyalists.

And before you ask, no, the president cannot be removed from office via the courts. Aside from cases where the president is convicted by the senate and refuses to step down, or refuses to step down at the end of their term, the judicial branch has no authority to remove the president from office.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2017, 02:48:33 AM »

TD's post really emphasizes how much of a hole Trump has dug himself. Let's assume for a minute that Trump has absolutely no nefarious connections with Russians, that the whole pee tape is fake, and really this is all smoke without fire. Here's what would have happened:

- Trump occasionally does business with Russia, but nothing nefarious, or different than any other business magnate does.
- Trump sees on the news some day that the DNC's been hacked, loves it, and goes on to publicly cheer the attack. Nothing too weird there.
- Trump eventually finds out the Russians were behind the attack. Why should he care? What they did helped him, he like it at the time, and Putin seems like a guy who's generally got his back.
- Comey goes after Clinton and probably gives Trump a last-minute boost. Trump loves this too.
- Trump thinks about hiring Flynn. Obama tells him not to, so of course he's going to do it.
- Eventually Trump hears that there are accusations that Russia helped deliver the election to Trump so they could use him as a puppet. This infuriates him, since he thinks he did it all by himself, and he never even talked to a Russian contact at any point throughout the campaign. Clearly a witch hunt to destroy his presidency!
- Trump fires Flynn, seeing that he's become a liability in the PR sphere, but still thinks he's a good guy and will re-hire him once all these accusations get "exposed" and it all blows over.
- Trump hears Comey might be looking into these accusations. What a shmuck! He thought Comey was on his side! A total betrayal! He should know there's nothing to these Russia claims!
- Trump fires Comey, since he's clearly lost his senses, and figures someone else will be able to do the job with fewer distractions.

And even that is illegal.

Trump doesn't seem to realize that even if there is no there there, disrupting an investigation is still itself a crime. At this point, it doesn't even matter if Trump had any connection to the Russians, as long as there's evidence he committed obstruction of justice, just as it never really mattered if Nixon knew about the Watergate break-in beforehand.

It would be a crime for the traditional citizen, but Impeachment is not a matter of whether the law is broken, but whether the senate feels, by a 2/3 majority, whether the president's actions fall under the circumstances for Impeachment called for in the Constitution, which are Treason (not applicable here), Bribery (not applicable here), and "other high crimes or misdemeanors", which the senate can define however they like. Unless there's a direct connection between Trump and Russia, you aren't getting a conviction in the Senate due to the way to the 2/3 majority requirement being bottled up by republican loyalists.

And before you ask, no, the president cannot be removed from office via the courts. Aside from cases where the president is convicted by the senate and refuses to step down, or refuses to step down at the end of their term, the judicial branch has no authority to remove the president from office.

I think it's pretty clear that 2/3 of the Senate would consider obstruction of justice to fall within the Constitutional grounds for impeachment. My point was that it no longer matters whether Trump actually had an illegal relationship with Russia before the election, so long as it can be proven he fired Comey to stymie the investigation. Proving both would just be the cherry on the top.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2017, 02:51:06 AM »

TD's post really emphasizes how much of a hole Trump has dug himself. Let's assume for a minute that Trump has absolutely no nefarious connections with Russians, that the whole pee tape is fake, and really this is all smoke without fire. Here's what would have happened:

- Trump occasionally does business with Russia, but nothing nefarious, or different than any other business magnate does.
- Trump sees on the news some day that the DNC's been hacked, loves it, and goes on to publicly cheer the attack. Nothing too weird there.
- Trump eventually finds out the Russians were behind the attack. Why should he care? What they did helped him, he like it at the time, and Putin seems like a guy who's generally got his back.
- Comey goes after Clinton and probably gives Trump a last-minute boost. Trump loves this too.
- Trump thinks about hiring Flynn. Obama tells him not to, so of course he's going to do it.
- Eventually Trump hears that there are accusations that Russia helped deliver the election to Trump so they could use him as a puppet. This infuriates him, since he thinks he did it all by himself, and he never even talked to a Russian contact at any point throughout the campaign. Clearly a witch hunt to destroy his presidency!
- Trump fires Flynn, seeing that he's become a liability in the PR sphere, but still thinks he's a good guy and will re-hire him once all these accusations get "exposed" and it all blows over.
- Trump hears Comey might be looking into these accusations. What a shmuck! He thought Comey was on his side! A total betrayal! He should know there's nothing to these Russia claims!
- Trump fires Comey, since he's clearly lost his senses, and figures someone else will be able to do the job with fewer distractions.

And even that is illegal.

Trump doesn't seem to realize that even if there is no there there, disrupting an investigation is still itself a crime. At this point, it doesn't even matter if Trump had any connection to the Russians, as long as there's evidence he committed obstruction of justice, just as it never really mattered if Nixon knew about the Watergate break-in beforehand.

It would be a crime for the traditional citizen, but Impeachment is not a matter of whether the law is broken, but whether the senate feels, by a 2/3 majority, whether the president's actions fall under the circumstances for Impeachment called for in the Constitution, which are Treason (not applicable here), Bribery (not applicable here), and "other high crimes or misdemeanors", which the senate can define however they like. Unless there's a direct connection between Trump and Russia, you aren't getting a conviction in the Senate due to the way to the 2/3 majority requirement being bottled up by republican loyalists.

And before you ask, no, the president cannot be removed from office via the courts. Aside from cases where the president is convicted by the senate and refuses to step down, or refuses to step down at the end of their term, the judicial branch has no authority to remove the president from office.

I think it's pretty clear that 2/3 of the Senate would consider obstruction of justice to fall within the Constitutional grounds for impeachment. My point was that it no longer matters whether Trump actually had an illegal relationship with Russia before the election, so long as it can be proven he fired Comey to stymie the investigation. Proving both would just be the cherry on the top.

Everyone knows he fired Comey over the Russia stuff. That's old news. I'd be really surprised if that alone got the necessary 19 republican votes, especially in a scenario where it's proven that Trump had no direct relevant connection to Russia.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #15 on: May 21, 2017, 03:11:05 AM »

I'm so ashamed of our country.

That we could have elected a man so clearly unfit is just beyond me.

Anyway, anyone who thinks everything in TD's post is all just coincidental and doesn't add up to anything is a fool.
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emailking
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« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2017, 07:30:23 AM »
« Edited: May 22, 2017, 09:23:39 AM by emailking »

It would be a crime for the traditional citizen, but Impeachment is not a matter of whether the law is broken, but whether the senate feels, by a 2/3 majority, whether the president's actions fall under the circumstances for Impeachment called for in the Constitution, which are Treason (not applicable here), Bribery (not applicable here), and "other high crimes or misdemeanors", which the senate can define however they like.

If they can define high crimes and misdemeanors however they like, they can define Treason and Bribery however they like too. Regardless, we really don't know if they aren't applicable yet.

And before you ask, no, the president cannot be removed from office via the courts. Aside from cases where the president is convicted by the senate and refuses to step down, or refuses to step down at the end of their term, the judicial branch has no authority to remove the president from office.

They don't have the authority to remove the President even in cases where s/he refuses to step down. It would be a completely unprecedented situation and would depend entirely upon who the government and military were willing to back. If it was a contested reelection, with both parties claiming foul, it could be a crisis. If it's just a rogue President who wants to be a dictator or something, s/he would probably be ignored. If the term is up or the President has been removed, the powers of the office are gone anyway.
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Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
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« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2017, 01:55:46 PM »

TD's post really emphasizes how much of a hole Trump has dug himself. Let's assume for a minute that Trump has absolutely no nefarious connections with Russians, that the whole pee tape is fake, and really this is all smoke without fire. Here's what would have happened:

- Trump occasionally does business with Russia, but nothing nefarious, or different than any other business magnate does.
- Trump sees on the news some day that the DNC's been hacked, loves it, and goes on to publicly cheer the attack. Nothing too weird there.
- Trump eventually finds out the Russians were behind the attack. Why should he care? What they did helped him, he like it at the time, and Putin seems like a guy who's generally got his back.
- Comey goes after Clinton and probably gives Trump a last-minute boost. Trump loves this too.
- Trump thinks about hiring Flynn. Obama tells him not to, so of course he's going to do it.
- Eventually Trump hears that there are accusations that Russia helped deliver the election to Trump so they could use him as a puppet. This infuriates him, since he thinks he did it all by himself, and he never even talked to a Russian contact at any point throughout the campaign. Clearly a witch hunt to destroy his presidency!
- Trump fires Flynn, seeing that he's become a liability in the PR sphere, but still thinks he's a good guy and will re-hire him once all these accusations get "exposed" and it all blows over.
- Trump hears Comey might be looking into these accusations. What a shmuck! He thought Comey was on his side! A total betrayal! He should know there's nothing to these Russia claims!
- Trump fires Comey, since he's clearly lost his senses, and figures someone else will be able to do the job with fewer distractions.

And even that is illegal.

Trump doesn't seem to realize that even if there is no there there, disrupting an investigation is still itself a crime. At this point, it doesn't even matter if Trump had any connection to the Russians, as long as there's evidence he committed obstruction of justice, just as it never really mattered if Nixon knew about the Watergate break-in beforehand.

It would be a crime for the traditional citizen, but Impeachment is not a matter of whether the law is broken, but whether the senate feels, by a 2/3 majority, whether the president's actions fall under the circumstances for Impeachment called for in the Constitution, which are Treason (not applicable here), Bribery (not applicable here), and "other high crimes or misdemeanors", which the senate can define however they like. Unless there's a direct connection between Trump and Russia, you aren't getting a conviction in the Senate due to the way to the 2/3 majority requirement being bottled up by republican loyalists.

And before you ask, no, the president cannot be removed from office via the courts. Aside from cases where the president is convicted by the senate and refuses to step down, or refuses to step down at the end of their term, the judicial branch has no authority to remove the president from office.

If the final result of Muller's investigation is "Trump is clearly guilty of obstruction" but the GOP Senate  refuses to impeach him, the end result will be a 2/3 Dem majority house (and eventually Senate) with a Dem President in 2021. And then Trump will spend his remaining years in jail for obstruction of justice.

Or the US implodes. Take your pick.
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2017, 02:03:32 PM »

Benghazi-Whitewater.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2017, 02:14:07 PM »

As I said back during Obama, talk of any Presidential impeachment is ridiculous.

I don't understand why Democrats don't prepare impeachment. Or bills to create it.

You cannot impeach someone just because you disagree with their policies. This is why I roll my eyes at stupid conservatives who say "Impeach Obama!" No matter how much you disagree, no laws were broken. We have to stop this already.
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