Anyway, I’m of the belief impeachment is probable. (Or some sort of resignation). The following reasons are probably why.
1. There are at least two obstruction of justice charges. One is Comey’s firing over the broader Russian investigation and the asking Comey to drop the Flynn investigation. However, these two alone don’t probably lead to impeachment. What makes me more suspicious …
2. The White House is attempting to obstruct an investigation by Mueller into Manafort and Kushner. It suggests strongly that if the White House had nothing to hide they wouldn't be trying to block him from investigating Kushner, Ivanka Trump, or Paul Manafort. However, Rodstein has anticipated this most likely because of this.
Link
here. Of course, if Justice succeeds, Mueller will simply raise a hue and cry and someone will grant the waiver.
Regardless, it is highly suspicious the White House would try to weaken any prosecution case brought forth by Mueller against these individuals. It stands to reason that the White House cannot justify that these people are completely innocent.
If Kushner goes down, Trump goes down. It is highly improbable that Kushner did anything without Trump’s foreknowledge. And it is highly improbable that Trump would be able to continue governing if his son in law is indicted or convicted. The many myriad Kushner-Trump connections reported suggest that there IS some possibly highly unethical/illegal stuff.
3. Paul Manafort, Carter Page, and Mike Flynn (the guy who will most likely bring Trump down) all have professional, business, and/or financial ties to Russia. Paul Manafort, in particular, is one of the people the White House is trying to shield from investigation by Mueller. New York, in addition, is also investigating him. Mike Flynn’s woes are well documented as is the President’s strange desire to protect him.
Flynn, in particular, has documented ties with the Turkish government, and a $500,000 payment from them and documented actions of stalling an anti-ISIS operation. Trump's continued insistence of defending him despite all these facts (and hiring him even though he was under federal investigation; hiring him, in fact, because he
insisted on being NSA) is suggestive that Flynn is either a) really close to Trump b) Flynn may know details about the case that Trump does not want divulged.
4. Trump has a long and extensive history of ties to Russian mobs and the mafia. His dealings at Trump Tower and other business dealings have put him in contact with shady businesses. He has retained these contacts throughout the years.
5. Trump’s tax returns have been shielded from us. They would indicate some sort of unethical conduct or possible connections Trump does not want us to know; that much is painfully clear. Or worse, they would indicate links to certain criminal organizations that the IRS wouldn’t necessarily see. Mueller has the power to subpoena them and look at them, as part of a criminal investigation. Which brings me to my third point …
6. Mueller’s investigation is not a fact finding investigation. Legally, it is a criminal investigation and one thing they are investigating is the possible cover ups.
7. When Comey testifies before the Senate Intelligence Committee, he will likely testify that he believed there was a cover up. Mueller may likely come to the same conclusion. This is definitely going to keep public interest alive into the scandal.
8. The Trump Organization is still nominally owned by Donald Trump and the blind trust isn’t exactly a blind trust (he can withdraw money anytime; he can see some basic reports). The Emolument clause and the like play into this point.
9. What’s strange is that we’ve had to fight every step of the way for a full investigation. Sessions was forced to recuse after the Washington Post’s revelations on February 13; otherwise, Sessions would be in charge, not Rodstein. Comey was fired, and we know from the Wall Street Journal that he had been increasingly concerned by Trump-Russian connections in the weeks leading up to it. Congressional Republicans have refused to have a real investigation and tried to slow walk everything until a special counsel became impossible to avoid.
Most intriguingly, Donald Trump has rejected the assertion that Russia tried to help him win the election and during the course of his Presidency, consistently behaves similarly to Marine LePen when dealing with Putin.
By itself, any of these 9 points are not conclusive. Combined together, though, they constitute a set of damaging information that probably brings down the President especially now that Mueller will likely have free rein to investigate each and every one of these points.
Mueller, in effect, cannot be dismissed from the investigation. Comey’s firing has made it politically impossible to dismiss Mueller; Trump’s comments February 14 and last week make it impossible for the Justice Department to even consider dismissing Mueller. His own sterling reputation as a former FBI Director for 12 years also makes it highly likely that his report will be taken as the gospel truth.
Minimum: I’d expect Flynn to be indicted and convicted, for sure; ditto Manafort (either by the federal government or NY’s AG). I expect Mueller to look at indicting Kushner, possibly. And absolutely, I expect extensive information to be dredged up about Trump Organization and its business dealings overseas. Oh, and Mueller will definitely say something about the tax returns, I imagine.
At all of this, Congressional Republicans - who have a weak personal relationship with Trump - will probably cut bait and switch to Pence. They have intense loyalty to the President, but remember this: Trump has no long standing connection to the GOP base like Nixon did. He won both the nomination and the general with a plurality, not majority, of the votes. His approval ratings will continue to be toxic most likely. His political inexperience will remain a handicap and will continue damaging him and Congressional Republicans. When it comes down to keeping the majority with Pence or losing it with Trump, I think they decide to install Pence and hope the base is just relieved to not defend the bad news cycles.
This assumes, of course, that Pence is not complicit. I assume at that point, they just keep moving down the line of succession …
