State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[KingSweden]

Keys-Gamarra won 64-33
Clinton won 64-29

Clinton had a larger margin, but Keys-Gamarra matched her %.

Keys-Gamarra had strong support from local Dems (Wexton, Boysko, Murphy, etc.), and she actually ran ahead of Hillary in some incredibly affluent, traditionally Republican areas near Oakton, which was her home turf. I'm hesitant to say this is a good data point to predict the gubernatorial race though, and that's simply because this race was a nonpartisan election.

It's very clear that Democratic anger/enthusiasm is extremely high in Fairfax, however.

Bodes well for HoD races, IMO, but who knows how Northam-Gillespie shakes out. I imagine Gillespie has better residual strength in NoVA than Generic R would (especially with Trump in the WH) but there could be strong headwinds even for him

[mds32]

Next week NH-Grafton-HD-9

Adjutant (D) vs. Migliore (R) vs. Babiarz (L)
Republican-held seat, Obama/Trump seat.

[Ebsy]

Next week NH-Grafton-HD-9

Adjutant (D) vs. Migliore (R) vs. Babiarz (L)
Republican-held seat, Obama/Trump seat.

I'll be keeping an eye out for results tonight. Usually they can be found on twitter before anywhere else.

[Shilly]

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/905213058116616194

Early unofficial from Grafton 9: Bristol: Migliore (R) 194; Adjutant (D) 188; Babiarz (L) 3 #nhpolitics via @jdistaso

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/905213058116616194

Early unofficial from Grafton 9: Bristol: Migliore (R) 194; Adjutant (D) 188; Babiarz (L) 3 #nhpolitics via @jdistaso

Dang, I though Adjutant was going to win.

[Shilly]

Still early.

[Ebsy]

Might just be election day votes as well. Absentees are sometimes counted separately, so who knows.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, but usually the democrat does the best in the early vote. Not always, but if that is the case, this is over.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, but usually the democrat does the best in the early vote. Not always, but if that is the case, this is over.

What I meant is that those votes might not include the early vote. The numbers reported are close to the total expected vote so it obviously includes the election day vote.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yeah, but usually the democrat does the best in the early vote. Not always, but if that is the case, this is over.

What I meant is that those votes might not include the early vote. The numbers reported are close to the total expected vote so it obviously includes the election day vote.

Hopefully.

[Ebsy]

Either way, looking like a big swing toward the Democratic Party.

[Meatball Ron]

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/905213058116616194

Early unofficial from Grafton 9: Bristol: Migliore (R) 194; Adjutant (D) 188; Babiarz (L) 3 #nhpolitics via @jdistaso

Dang, I though Adjutant was going to win.

Those results are only for Bristol, which is just one of the five towns in the district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/905213058116616194

Early unofficial from Grafton 9: Bristol: Migliore (R) 194; Adjutant (D) 188; Babiarz (L) 3 #nhpolitics via @jdistaso

Dang, I though Adjutant was going to win.

Those results are only for Bristol, which is just one of the five towns in the district.

If that's the case, it looks better then.

[Ebsy]

Precinct results for Bristol township in 2016:

[Mr.Phips]

Precinct results for Bristol township in 2016:

Pretty close to the district as a whole.

[Meatball Ron]

Precinct results for Bristol township in 2016:

Pretty close to the district as a whole.

I think that of the 5 towns in the district, Trump won two towns by a bigger margin than he won Bristol and two towns by a smaller margin than he won Bristol, so it's right in the middle. In other words, it's gonna come down to the wire.

[The Other Castro]

Yep, too early to make any calls. This slight Republican win in Bristol could potentially be cancelled out by a slight Democratic over-performance in another area of the district.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Migliore now up 611-561.

[The Other Castro]

WMUR TV‏ @WMUR9
Unofficial results from GOP in @NHHouseofReps Grafton 9 special have GOPer Migliore winning over Dem Adjutant, 611-561 #nhpolitics #WMUR

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/905221491956080641

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

WMUR TV‏ @WMUR9
Unofficial results from GOP in @NHHouseofReps Grafton 9 special have GOPer Migliore winning over Dem Adjutant, 611-561 #nhpolitics #WMUR

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/905221491956080641

Yeah, I don't see Adjutant bouncing back at this point.

[Ebsy]

Would be 52 to 48, a 10 point swing.

[The Other Castro]

WMUR TV‏ @WMUR9
Unofficial results from GOP in @NHHouseofReps Grafton 9 special have GOPer Migliore winning over Dem Adjutant, 611-561 #nhpolitics #WMUR

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/905221491956080641

Yeah, I don't see Adjutant bouncing back at this point.

No I mean I think that is the total vote, so it's over, the Republican won like 52-48.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

WMUR TV‏ @WMUR9
Unofficial results from GOP in @NHHouseofReps Grafton 9 special have GOPer Migliore winning over Dem Adjutant, 611-561 #nhpolitics #WMUR

https://twitter.com/WMUR9/status/905221491956080641

Yeah, I don't see Adjutant bouncing back at this point.

No I mean I think that is the total vote, so it's over, the Republican won like 52-48.

RIP

[Ebsy]

Democrats got 561 votes compared to 2,007 in 2016, turning out 28% of their voters.

Republicans got 611 to Trump's 2,786, turning out 22% of their voters.

Another data point for the emerging enthusiasm gap.

[Beet]

Democrats got 561 votes compared to 2,007 in 2016, turning out 28% of their voters.

Republicans got 611 to Trump's 2,786, turning out 22% of their voters.

Another data point for the emerging enthusiasm gap.

Yeah but the 2016 state legislative results were:

Jeff Shackett (R) - 2,470
Bob Hull (R) - 2,097
Joshua Adjutant (D) - 1,913
Judy Frothingham (D) - 1,638

How does this even work: Each voter picks two? If Shackett is the one being replaced, then the GOP turned out 25% of its voters while the Democrats turned out 27%. No further erosion since '16, but not much change for the positive, either.