State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Virginiá]

Dems got a 12-point swing in that seat.

Still, getting less than 35% is pretty pathetic.

Well, yes, but that is how it goes in some areas. It's not like Republicans don't have some districts where they completely bomb as well. What is more important is what margins Democrats have gotten there for, say, the past 3 cycles or so, and how the swing tonight compares.

[KingSweden]

So on average Dems are seeing a 14 point swing in races or so, yes?

[Brittain33]

So on average Dems are seeing a 14 point swing in races or so, yes?

An unweighted average of all the special elections since Trumpageddon has been an 11-point swing from 2016 Presidential.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1C2MVeM2K7WgqmJw5RCQbWyTo2u73CX1pI8zw_G-7BJo/edit#gid=0

[Nyvin]

Dems got a 12-point swing in that seat.

Still, getting less than 35% is pretty pathetic.

It's a district the Democrats usually don't even field a candidate in during General Elections.   

Is it pathetic that Republicans can't get 20% in San Francisco?

[Beet]

Dems got a 12-point swing in that seat.

Still, getting less than 35% is pretty pathetic.

It's a district the Democrats usually don't even field a candidate in during General Elections.   

Is it pathetic that Republicans can't get 20% in San Francisco?

San Francisco doesn't matter.

[Brittain33]

Dems got a 12-point swing in that seat.

Still, getting less than 35% is pretty pathetic.

It's a district the Democrats usually don't even field a candidate in during General Elections.   

Is it pathetic that Republicans can't get 20% in San Francisco?

San Francisco doesn't matter.

Does Tennessee, if that's the case? It's like the 45th state on Dems' target list for any office.

[Holmes]

Dems got a 12-point swing in that seat.

Still, getting less than 35% is pretty pathetic.

It's a district the Democrats usually don't even field a candidate in during General Elections.   

Is it pathetic that Republicans can't get 20% in San Francisco?

San Francisco doesn't matter.

It matters more than some rando Tennessee state House district considering the next Speaker of the House is from there.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Dems got a 12-point swing in that seat.

Still, getting less than 35% is pretty pathetic.

It's a district the Democrats usually don't even field a candidate in during General Elections.  

Is it pathetic that Republicans can't get 20% in San Francisco?

San Francisco doesn't matter.

It matters more than some rando Tennessee state House district considering the next Speaker of the House is from there.

A strong potential candidate for next Speaker represents there because it's been a safe seat for the Dems for the past geologic epoch (or at least the political equivalent). In this way it is likely indistinguishable from a rando congressional seat in TN, for which rando HDs produce good recruits.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls in the two special elections in South Carolina close at 7 PM EST. Results Page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/SC_State_House_0620.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[mds32]

If we play that average game I imagine Democrats will gain in percentages in SC-HD-48 and lose a little in HD-70.

HD-48:
(R) - 57%
(D) - 43%

HD-70
(D) - 69%
(R) - 31%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

polls have closed

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

State House - District 70 - Special General
1 of 22 Precincts Reporting - 5%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Brawley, Wendy   Dem   126   80%
Strickland, Bill   GOP   31   20%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: BRAWLEY WINS SC-70 SPECIAL

State House - District 70 - Special General
2 of 22 Precincts Reporting - 9%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Brawley, Wendy   Dem   251   85%
Strickland, Bill   GOP   46   15%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

State House - District 48 - Special General
1 of 17 Precincts Reporting - 6%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bryant, Bruce   GOP   314   57%
Chorak, Bebs Barron   Dem   237   43%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

State House - District 48 - Special General
2 of 17 Precincts Reporting - 12%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bryant, Bruce   GOP   541   60%
Chorak, Bebs Barron   Dem   365   40%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: BRYANT WINS SC-48 SPECIAL

State House - District 48 - Special General
5 of 17 Precincts Reporting - 29%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bryant, Bruce   GOP   1,540   65%
Chorak, Bebs Barron   Dem   844   35%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

State House - District 48 - Special General
17 of 17 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Bryant, Bruce   GOP   4,446   61%
Chorak, Bebs Barron   Dem   2,880   39%

State House - District 70 - Special General
22 of 22 Precincts Reporting - 100%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Brawley, Wendy   Dem   2,521   78%
Strickland, Bill   GOP   705   22%

If we play that average game I imagine Democrats will gain in percentages in SC-HD-48 and lose a little in HD-70.

HD-48:
(R) - 57%
(D) - 43%

HD-70
(D) - 69%
(R) - 31%

So the dems overperformed in HD-70 and underperformed in HD-48.

[Holmes]

So the dems overperformed in HD-70 and underperformed in HD-48.

It's hard to say either because both seats are so often unopposed. The last time HD-48 was contested was in 2014 when Norman won by ~46%. HD-70's been uncontested for a long time.

[Ebsy]

Next race is Iowa HD-22 next week on Jun 27, which Trump won 66-30 and Romney 62-37. Democrats don't usually field candidates here and though they nominated Ray Stevens, he failed to file paperwork to appear on the ballot. I think he is running a write in campaign, but don't quote me on that.

GOP: Jon Jacobson
LIB: Bryan Holder
IND: Carol Forristall

Carol Forristall is the widow of the previous holder of the seat, and was defeated handily by Jon Jacobson at the GOP convention.

[mds32]

Next race is Iowa HD-22 next week on Jun 27, which Trump won 66-30 and Romney 62-37. Democrats don't usually field candidates here and though they nominated Ray Stevens, he failed to file paperwork to appear on the ballot. I think he is running a write in campaign, but don't quote me on that.

GOP: Jon Jacobson
LIB: Bryan Holder
IND: Carol Forristall

Carol Forristall is the widow of the previous holder of the seat, and was defeated handily by Jon Jacobson at the GOP convention.

I wonder if Forristall were to win if she would remain an independent?

[mds32]

IA-HD-82

State Rep. Curt Hanson (D) has died and he is from a 58-37 Trump district. This will be a tough hold for the Iowa Dems and will be a test as to whether the party can be rejuvenated and in fact on the offensive in 2018.

The special is set for Aug. 8th, there are no candidates for the seat yet as both parties have not nominated yet.

https://ballotpedia.org/Curt_Hanson

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next race is Iowa HD-22 next week on Jun 27, which Trump won 66-30 and Romney 62-37. Democrats don't usually field candidates here and though they nominated Ray Stevens, he failed to file paperwork to appear on the ballot. I think he is running a write in campaign, but don't quote me on that.

GOP: Jon Jacobson
LIB: Bryan Holder
IND: Carol Forristall

Carol Forristall is the widow of the previous holder of the seat, and was defeated handily by Jon Jacobson at the GOP convention.

Results should show up here tonight, after 10 ET: https://pottcounty-ia.gov/departments/auditor/election-results/

[The Other Castro]

10/16 precincts + absentee vote:

Jon Jacobsen (R) - 785 (46.12%)
Carol Forristall (I) - 463 (27.20%)
Write-In - 378 (22.21%)
Bryan Jack Holder (L) - 76 (4.47%)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

10/16 precincts + absentee vote:

Jon Jacobsen (R) - 785 (46.12%)
Carol Forristall (I) - 463 (27.20%)
Write-In - 378 (22.21%)
Bryan Jack Holder (L) - 76 (4.47%)

Where are you seeing these numbers?

[The Other Castro]

10/16 precincts + absentee vote:

Jon Jacobsen (R) - 785 (46.12%)
Carol Forristall (I) - 463 (27.20%)
Write-In - 378 (22.21%)
Bryan Jack Holder (L) - 76 (4.47%)

Where are you seeing these numbers?

Precinct reports from a news editor of an Iowa paper.

https://twitter.com/MikeBrownleeDNP/status/879896092866891777