State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[The Other Castro]

All results are in:

Jon Jacobsen (R) - 1069 (43.90%)
Carol Forristall (I) - 803 (32.98%)
Write-In - 465 (19.10%)
Bryan Jack Holder (L) - 98 (4.02%)

[Holmes]

What a sad showing. Maybe if the Democrat didn't run a write-in campaign, there would be an indie representing this district.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next Election:

Senate   OK   44   7/11/17               
House   OK   75   7/11/17

[mds32]

Next Election:

Senate   OK   44   7/11/17               
House   OK   75   7/11/17

I predict OK-HD-75 is a Tilt D-pickup. This analysis seems to show that Republicans could be in trouble here and Democrats seem to be favored in special elections as of the past 3 years:

https://ready2vote.com/blog/2017/6/8/karen-gaddis-d-the-comeback-candidate-for-team-blue-oklahoma-hd-75

[Ebsy]

All results are in:

Jon Jacobsen (R) - 1069 (43.90%)
Carol Forristall (I) - 803 (32.98%)
Write-In - 465 (19.10%)
Bryan Jack Holder (L) - 98 (4.02%)

Carol Forristall is actually also a Republican (the widow of the former representative), just failed to get the nod from the party convention.

[Ebsy]

Oklahoma HD 74:

Candidate:
Karen Gaddid (DEM)
Tressa Nunley (GOP)

Looks like the GOP has held this seat since 2000. It went Romney 76, Obama 24 in 2012, and Dale Derby won it 67-33 in 2016. Considering how poorly Clinton likely did in the district, this indicates that there might still be a significant overperformance for Democrats downballot here, but I would not be too optimistic.

[mds32]

I predict that Democrats will PICKUP OK-SD-44 this Tuesday. If you don't think so look at the financial reports...

Joseph Griffen (R) — $8,201.20 COH

Michael Brooks-Jimenez (D) — $115,071.40 COH

Brooks-Jimenez (D) also had over $150k raised in this period. I seriously doubt the Republicans retain this seat. It looks like the Democrats will increase their Senate caucus to 7 on Tuesday. The seat also is open because Former Senator Shortey (R) had to resign due to a sex scandal.

[The Other Castro]

^ The primary (though both are unopposed) for OK SD-44 is Tuesday, but the general isn't until 9/12.

Edit: Ignore me I'm bad at internetz

[mds32]

^ The primary (though both are unopposed) for OK SD-44 is Tuesday, but the general isn't until 9/12.

Nope the general is on Tuesday. Elections in Oklahoma are moved up if there is no primary. There was no primary.

[mds32]

^ The primary (though both are unopposed) for OK SD-44 is Tuesday, but the general isn't until 9/12.

The general is the 11th of July.

https://www.ok.gov/elections/Election_Info/State_Senator_District_44_Special_Election_Info.html

[The Other Castro]

^ The primary (though both are unopposed) for OK SD-44 is Tuesday, but the general isn't until 9/12.

Nope the general is on Tuesday. Elections in Oklahoma are moved up if there is no primary. There was no primary.

Oh weird my mistake, I was looking at an old source that apparently hadn't updated to account for that. Could be an interesting one to watch.

[Donerail]

Taddeo leads Rivas Logan 40-23 per this poll of SD-40.

[GlobeSoc]

Another ''family values'' GOPer caught w/ his pants down:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Oklahoma GOP apparently saw the toxicity of the kansas GOP and decided to make almost their entire party dedicated to creating a worse brand than them by any means necessary

[ajc0918]

Taddeo leads Rivas Logan 40-23 per this poll of SD-40.

Do you think Taddeo can win the general? I use to like her but she has continued to lose.

[_]

Another ''family values'' GOPer caught w/ his pants down:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

But he's just making his family a bigger one, nothing wrong with that. /s

[Donerail]

Taddeo leads Rivas Logan 40-23 per this poll of SD-40.

Do you think Taddeo can win the general? I use to like her but she has continued to lose.

I honestly don't know enough about the district. I'd bet against her just bc I assume there has to be something that caused her to come up short however many previous times (and Diaz is a sharp candidate for the GOP), but I honestly don't know enough about Miami to make a more educated guess.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Another ''family values'' GOPer caught w/ his pants down:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

But he's just making his family a bigger one, nothing wrong with that. /s

The f*** is with the OK Republican Party?

[Skunk]

Oklahoma HD 74:

Candidate:
Karen Gaddis (DEM)
Tressa Nunley (GOP)

Looks like the GOP has held this seat since 2000. It went Romney 76, Obama 24 in 2012, and Dale Derby won it 67-33 in 2016. Considering how poorly Clinton likely did in the district, this indicates that there might still be a significant overperformance for Democrats downballot here, but I would not be too optimistic.

Nunley seems to have the better ground game here. I see a ton of signs out for her whereas I only see a couple ones for Gaddis. Then again, we've gotten a lot of Gaddis stuff in the mail so maybe she's focusing more on mailing voters and sending people door-to-door than signs.

[mds32]

Oklahoma HD 74:

Candidate:
Karen Gaddis (DEM)
Tressa Nunley (GOP)

Looks like the GOP has held this seat since 2000. It went Romney 76, Obama 24 in 2012, and Dale Derby won it 67-33 in 2016. Considering how poorly Clinton likely did in the district, this indicates that there might still be a significant overperformance for Democrats downballot here, but I would not be too optimistic.

Nunley seems to have the better ground game here. I see a ton of signs out for her whereas I only see a couple ones for Gaddis. Then again, we've gotten a lot of Gaddis stuff in the mail so maybe she's focusing more on mailing voters and sending people door-to-door than signs.

I think in the case of the special election upsets that have occurred, or almost upsets as of recent, for the Dems in Oklahoma quietly getting out the voters may be the better move. Also it is important to say that Gaddis led Nunley in fundraising until this final period because Gaddis spent a lot more money.

[Webnicz]

Curious, are there any interactive maps online similar to 270 to win but for state legislative districts?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results Page for tomorrow: https://www.ok.gov/elections/support/ok_results_seb.html

[Skunk]

My dad just left to go vote for Karen Gaddis.

[Skunk]

My dad just left to go vote for Karen Gaddis.

Asked him about turnout and he just said "me" so if there's only one vote cast and Gaddis wins, you guys can thank me later.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My dad just left to go vote for Karen Gaddis.

He made the right choice.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed.