State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[KingSweden]

Any predictions for WA-SD45 tonight?

Dhringa clears 60%.

That would be quite something.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Legislative District 7 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Karen Hardy(Prefers Democratic Party)
969   35.3%
Shelly Short(Prefers Republican Party)
1,776   64.7%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   2,745   
Legislative District 7 - State Representative Pos. 1County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Susan Swanson(Prefers Democratic Party)
1,006   36.8%
Jacquelin Maycumber(Prefers Republican Party)
1,728   63.2%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   2,734   
Legislative District 31 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Michelle Rylands(Prefers Democratic Party)
2,109   41.17%
Phil Fortunato(Prefers Republican Party)
3,014   58.83%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   5,123   
Legislative District 31 - State Representative Pos. 2County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Nate Lowry(Prefers Democratic Party)
2,097   41.01%
Morgan Irwin(Prefers Republican Party)
3,017   58.99%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   5,114   
Legislative District 37 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Rebecca Saldaña(Prefers Democratic Party)
12,356   
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   12,356   
Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Parker Harris(States No Party Preference)
1,620   6.86%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
10,052   42.59%
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
11,928   50.54%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   23,600   
Legislative District 48 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Richard Knierim(Prefers Independent Dem. Party)
2,284   15.98%
Patty Kuderer(Prefers Democratic Party)
8,628   60.36%
Michelle Darnell(Prefers Libertarian Party)
3,382   23.66%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   14,294   
Legislative District 48 - State Representative Pos. 1County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Vandana Slatter(Prefers Democratic Party)
10,649   76.6%
Ciaran Dougherty(Prefers Libertarian Party)
3,253   23.4%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   13,902   

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Spokane Superior Court - Judge Position 6County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Jocelyn Cook
12,295   25.26%
J. Scott Miller
11,404   23.43%
Tony Hazel
24,970   51.31%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   48,669   

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ready to make some calls now:

Legislative District 7 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Karen Hardy(Prefers Democratic Party)
7,585   32.74%  Makes runoff by default
Shelly Short(Prefers Republican Party)
15,579   67.26%  Projected to finish first
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   23,164   

Legislative District 7 - State Representative Pos. 1County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Susan Swanson(Prefers Democratic Party)
7,849   34.04%  Makes runoff by default
Jacquelin Maycumber(Prefers Republican Party)
15,211   65.96% Projected to finish first
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   23,060   

Legislative District 31 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Michelle Rylands(Prefers Democratic Party)
6,331   41.45% Makes runoff by default
Phil Fortunato(Prefers Republican Party)
8,942   58.55% Projected to finish first
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   15,273   

Legislative District 31 - State Representative Pos. 2County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Nate Lowry(Prefers Democratic Party)
6,548   43.12% Makes runoff by default
Morgan Irwin(Prefers Republican Party)
8,636   56.88% Projected to finish first
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   15,184

Legislative District 37 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Rebecca Saldaña(Prefers Democratic Party)
12,356 Wins Jungle unopposed   

[KingSweden]

Not as bad as I was expecting in SD-45. @kingsweden Do you think it's because a lot of these voters want a split legislature?

Possibly. The Englund campaign is basically zeroed in on car tabs and income tax fearmongering, and nothing else. Still think Dhingra has the advantage with three more months of Trump to further sink the WAGOP

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

One more call:

Legislative District 48 - State Representative Pos. 1County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Vandana Slatter(Prefers Democratic Party)
10,649   76.6% Projected to finish first
Ciaran Dougherty(Prefers Libertarian Party)
3,253   23.4% Makes runoff by default
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   13,902   

------------

Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Parker Harris(States No Party Preference)
1,620   6.86%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
10,052   42.59%
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
11,928   50.54%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   23,600   

Legislative District 48 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Richard Knierim(Prefers Independent Dem. Party)
2,284   15.98%
Patty Kuderer(Prefers Democratic Party)
8,628   60.36%
Michelle Darnell(Prefers Libertarian Party)
3,382   23.66%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   14,294   

[heatcharger]

Not as bad as I was expecting in SD-45. @kingsweden Do you think it's because a lot of these voters want a split legislature?

Well, the Republican candidate ran a localized campaign from my view, and to be blunt, she is Asian and attractive in a district with a large Asian population, so I think she's overperforming how a Generic R would do.

[KingSweden]

Not as bad as I was expecting in SD-45. @kingsweden Do you think it's because a lot of these voters want a split legislature?

Well, the Republican candidate ran a localized campaign from my view, and to be blunt, she is Asian and attractive in a district with a large Asian population, so I think she's overperforming how a Generic R would do.

Jinyoung Englund is better looking than most candidates, male or female, which doesn't hurt

[KingSweden]

GOP also went all-out in the last two weeks against Dhingra.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Counting is done for today, but will continue throughout the week. Update on the uncalled races:

Spokane Superior Court - Judge Position 6County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Jocelyn Cook
12,295   25.26%
J. Scott Miller
11,404   23.43%
Tony Hazel
24,970   51.31% Projected to make first runoff slot
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   48,669   

Legislative District 48 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Richard Knierim(Prefers Independent Dem. Party)
2,284   15.98%
Patty Kuderer(Prefers Democratic Party)
8,628   60.36% Projected to make first runoff slot
Michelle Darnell(Prefers Libertarian Party)
3,382   23.66%

For the following race, while it is clear that the latter two candidates will make the runoff, the gap between them is small enough that it is unclear who will have the distinction of finishing first in the jungle. Watch the late ballots. :

Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Parker Harris(States No Party Preference)
1,620   6.86%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
10,052   42.59%
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
11,928   50.54%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   23,600   

[KingSweden]

Counting is done for today, but will continue throughout the week. Update on the uncalled races:

Spokane Superior Court - Judge Position 6County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Jocelyn Cook
12,295   25.26%
J. Scott Miller
11,404   23.43%
Tony Hazel
24,970   51.31% Projected to make first runoff slot
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   48,669   

Legislative District 48 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Richard Knierim(Prefers Independent Dem. Party)
2,284   15.98%
Patty Kuderer(Prefers Democratic Party)
8,628   60.36% Projected to make first runoff slot
Michelle Darnell(Prefers Libertarian Party)
3,382   23.66%

For the following race, while it is clear that the latter two candidates will make the runoff, the gap between them is small enough that it is unclear who will have the distinction of finishing first in the jungle. Watch the late ballots. :

Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Parker Harris(States No Party Preference)
1,620   6.86%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
10,052   42.59%
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
11,928   50.54%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   23,600   

Late ballots are unlikely to favor Englund

GOP also went all-out in the last two weeks against Dhingra.

Ah, I just read that on Twitter. Not too bad of an underperformance, all things considered then. Romney did about 12% better than Trump here, so I guess it was foolish of me to assume the results would bleed downballot that fast.

FL SD-40 should be a real barn burner though, I think, after watching these results. Strong anti-Trump sentiment vs. strong local Republican machine.

This is really the kind of district with many of the quintessential Romney voters who voted for Clinton or didn't vote for President/voted Johnson. My conservative but anti-Trump parents live here, I can't imagine they won't vote Englund in Nov, almost 90% because of the belief that Dems will ram through an income tax immediately upon regaining power

[KingSweden]

So I guess Parker Harris is a left-Indy and not a Libertariam like I thought. In that case, most of his support is likely to shift to Dhingra, giving her a further leg up. (I'm now expecting this fall to look about 54-46 in Dhingra's advantage)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

King County has released its update for today, and with it I am ready to make the remaining legislative calls:

Legislative District 45 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Parker Harris(States No Party Preference)
1,958   6.84%
Jinyoung Lee Englund(Prefers Republican Party)
12,049   42.11% Projected to make runoff
Manka Dhingra(Prefers Democratic Party)
14,605   51.05% Projected to finish first
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   28,612   

Legislative District 48 - State SenatorCounty Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Richard Knierim(Prefers Independent Dem. Party)
2,546   15.75%
Patty Kuderer(Prefers Democratic Party)
9,830   60.8% Projected to finish first
Michelle Darnell(Prefers Libertarian Party)
3,791   23.45% Projected to make runoff
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   16,167

   

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Update on totals for Spokane Superior Court. Margin between second and third has decreased from 1.83% to 1.76%. Miller needs to get about 30% of the remaining ~9,000 votes to take 2nd place.

Spokane Superior Court - Judge Position 6County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Jocelyn Cook
13,474   25.12%
J. Scott Miller
12,528   23.36%
Tony Hazel
27,632   51.52%
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   53,634

[publicunofficial]

So I guess Parker Harris is a left-Indy and not a Libertariam like I thought. In that case, most of his support is likely to shift to Dhingra, giving her a further leg up. (I'm now expecting this fall to look about 54-46 in Dhingra's advantage)

Harris was the only candidate to support an income tax, which is where I saw most of his support coming from (online at least). So yeah, likely D voters.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ready to make a call on the Spokane Superior Court Race. With only 2k ballots left, there isn't enough left to change things anymore.

Spokane Superior Court - Judge Position 6County Results & Map
Candidate   Vote   Vote %
Jocelyn Cook
15,464   24.69% Projected to make runoff
J. Scott Miller
14,693   23.46%
Tony Hazel
32,480   51.85% Projected to finish first
Total Votes (not including write-ins)   62,637   


---------------

The next elections are in Missouri on August 8th.

[Ebsy]

Pretty excited for HD-50 on Tuesday. Hopefully Skelton does well.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anyone find a results page for Missouri tonight?

[mds32]

Pretty excited for HD-50 on Tuesday. Hopefully Skelton does well.

I predict a Skelton win. As well as a Miller win in IA-HD-82 (the seat is a Democratic seat that Trump won 58-37)

[Ebsy]

Anyone find a results page for Missouri tonight?

http://enr.sos.mo.gov/

SOS website. Usually AP is ahead of them but I do not know if AP will be tracking it tonight.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pretty excited for HD-50 on Tuesday. Hopefully Skelton does well.

I predict a Skelton win. As well as a Miller win in IA-HD-82 (the seat is a Democratic seat that Trump won 58-37)

I think Miller wins with the sympathy vote. I think Skelton could too, although I am putting my fake money on Walsh, though if Skelton does win, I would credit it to her last name. Skalicky definitely loses, too R. Nothing in terms of margins of the Missouri seats, as they don't have enough recent history to compare it with, and I don't know much about the two districts. But, I think Miller wins 54-46.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Anyone find a results page for Missouri tonight?

http://enr.sos.mo.gov/

SOS website. Usually AP is ahead of them but I do not know if AP will be tracking it tonight.

AP does not do local races unless they are on the same day as a statewide or federal race.

[Ebsy]

Absentee ballots in MO HD-50:

Michela Skelton (D)   195   
Sara Walsh (R)   81

[YPestis25]

Absentee ballots in MO HD-50:

Michela Skelton (D)   195   
Sara Walsh (R)   81

Woohoo!