State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Holmes]

Man the GOP is getting massacred tonight.

2018's gonna be good.

[mds32]

3/6 of the Democrats wins have been in Oklahoma this year.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is great!

[Ebsy]

I suspect that these insane showings in Oklahoma mostly have to do with national trends compounded by the fact that apparently the entire Oklahoma GOP are a bunch of sex perverts. Hard to find a state party with a worse brand right now.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Finally, MS Data:

House District 102 Special Election
25% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Missy McGee (I)   497   38%
    Kathryn Rehner (I)   446   34%
    Casey Mercier (I)   207   16%
    Cory Ferraez (I)   167   13%

Remember, runoff if no one reaches 50%.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Man the GOP is getting massacred tonight.

2018's gonna be good.

Beautiful!

[Ebsy]

Finally, MS Data:

House District 102 Special Election
25% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Missy McGee (I)   497   38%
    Kathryn Rehner (I)   446   34%
    Casey Mercier (I)   207   16%
    Cory Ferraez (I)   167   13%

Remember, runoff if no one reaches 50%.

There are 12 precincts in this district so I imagine it is 3/12 reporting. Hard to say what the results mean without knowing which precincts are reporting.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

3/6 of the Democrats wins have been in Oklahoma this year.

Are they all in Tulsa/OKC big city areas? Or is it more spread out in rural areas as well?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final OK Results:

STATE REPRESENTATIVE   
FOR STATE REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 46 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
16 of 16 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
DARIN CHAMBERS (REP)   203      65      1,813      2,081   39.59%
JACOB ROSECRANTS (DEM)   241      104      2,831      3,176   60.41%
Total   444      169      4,644      5,257      
                              
STATE SENATOR   
FOR STATE SENATOR DISTRICT 37 (UNEXPIRED TERM)   
Republican   
28 of 28 Precincts Completely Reporting      
ABSENTEE
MAIL      EARLY
VOTING      ELECTION
DAY      
TOTAL      
BRIAN M. JACKSON   6      1      40      47   2.33%
GRADY GRANT   3      1      8      12   0.60%
BRIAN O'HARA   23      8      812      843   41.86%
PHIL NOLLAN   14      5      628      647   32.13%
RICK HARDESTY   8      1      96      105   5.21%
NICOLE NIXON   3      0      133      136   6.75%
R. JAY McATEE   8      7      209      224   11.12%
Total   65      23      1,926      2,014   

[Ebsy]

3/6 of the Democrats wins have been in Oklahoma this year.

Are they all in Tulsa/OKC big city areas? Or is it more spread out in rural areas as well?

I remember them coming super close in a rural seat, but I think all of the wins have been in the cities.

[Ebsy]

The Hattiesburg Post‏ @HattiesburgPost
With all precincts reporting, Ferraez 293, McGee 1,359, Mercier 685, Rehner 762.

Looks like it will be McGee (GOP) and Rehner (DEM) in the runoff.

[windjammer]

The Hattiesburg Post‏ @HattiesburgPost
With all precincts reporting, Ferraez 293, McGee 1,359, Mercier 685, Rehner 762.

Looks like it will be McGee (GOP) and Rehner (DEM) in the runoff.

Mercier and Ferraez's affiliation?

[Holmes]

The Hattiesburg Post‏ @HattiesburgPost
With all precincts reporting, Ferraez 293, McGee 1,359, Mercier 685, Rehner 762.

Looks like it will be McGee (GOP) and Rehner (DEM) in the runoff.

Mercier and Ferraez's affiliation?

Republican I believe.

[Oryxslayer]

Checking Ballotopdia Zyzz gives us:

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/9/9e/OK_HD_028.JPG

OK HD 28

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/6/6c/OK_SD_44.JPG

OK SD 44

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/8/88/OK_HD_075.JPG

OK HD 75

https://cdn.ballotpedia.org/images/8/86/OK_HD_046.JPG

OK HD 46, which was tonight.

They all appear to be relatively close to the cities, and are at least anchored by an urban /suburban core. Even HD 28 which dems barely lost is close to Oklahoma City.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Apparently Rosecrants lost OK HD 46 in 2016 with 39.6% of the vote, so tonight's result reflects a 20.8% swing in favor of Democrats.

[Kamala]

Apparently Rosecrants lost OK HD 46 in 2016 with 39.6% of the vote, so tonight's result reflects a 20.8% swing in favor of Democrats.

With those kinds of swings, I'd say Democrats have a nonzero chance of taking the Governor's mansion next year.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Honestly, what could kill the GOP next year on the state level is lack of turnout among the base. We've already seen that in other state legislature special elections (the one I can think of off the top of my head is Pellegrino in NY), and if the trend continues you could start seeing 10-15 point swings.

NH tonight is also kinda reassuring because even though Clinton's numbers really dropped off from Obama in 2012, the Dem candidate still won with a similar margin to Obama. That might be taking too much analysis out of the result, but basically it could mean that the large swings to Trump in formerly Dem districts isn't permanent.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

House District 102 Special Election
100% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Missy McGee (I)   1,475   45% RUNOFF
    Kathryn Rehner (I)   807   24% RUNOFF
    Casey Mercier (I)   702   21%
    Cory Ferraez (I)   313   9%

------------

Next Election:

September 26, 2017

Florida State Senate District 40   
Florida House of Representatives District 116   
New Hampshire House of Representatives District Rockingham 4   
South Carolina House of Representatives District 31   

[Heisenberg]

Apparently Rosecrants lost OK HD 46 in 2016 with 39.6% of the vote, so tonight's result reflects a 20.8% swing in favor of Democrats.

With those kinds of swings, I'd say Democrats have a nonzero chance of taking the Governor's mansion next year.

And (if there is one, I kind of hope the nomination is stalled until at least January), might the Bridenstine Special Election be competitive?

[Dr. Arch]

Great news tonight!

[Chief Justice Keef]

Next Election:

September 26, 2017

Florida State Senate District 40   
Florida House of Representatives District 116   
New Hampshire House of Representatives District Rockingham 4   
South Carolina House of Representatives District 31   

For reference:

FL SD 40 went Clinton 58 - 40 in 2016.

FL HD 116 went Clinton 51 - 46 in 2016 and Romney 55 - 44 in 2012.

NH HD Rockingham-4 went Trump 59 - 36 in 2016 and Romney 60 - 39 in 2012.

SC HD 31 went Clinton 72 - 24 in 2016 and Obama 79 - 20 in 2012.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

From 2009-2016, the usual pattern was that Dems would fail colossally in special elections. The talk was about how much (insert R candidate here) outperformed McCain or Romney, or how Ds never turned out for specials. This year's special elections have been an amazing sea change from that pattern.

[smoltchanov]

Well, interesting: Democrats won yesterday Trump's districts in New Hampshire and Oklahoma, but got less then a quatrer of votes and barely made a runoff in Mississippi's very swingy (on Presidential level) district. Either Democratic candidate was very bad, or Republican candidates were unusually good (and, in fact, McGee seems to be a Cochran-type pragmatic conservative, not McDaniel-type extremist, who actively participated in campaigns of her predeccessor, who was one of the most pragmatic Republicans in Legislature, and was convincingly elected as mayor of majority-Black city).

[Tintrlvr]

Well, interesting: Democrats won yesterday Trump's districts in New Hampshire and Oklahoma, but got less then a quatrer of votes and barely made a runoff in Mississippi's very swingy (on Presidential level) district. Either Democratic candidate was very bad, or Republican candidates were unusually good (and, in fact, McGee seems to be a Cochran-type pragmatic conservative, not McDaniel-type extremist, who actively participated in campaigns of her predeccessor, who was one of the most pragmatic Republicans in Legislature, and was convincingly elected as mayor of majority-Black city).

MS jungle primaries are non-partisan, so voters can't tell who the Democrat is and who the Republicans are. If there had been three Democrats and one Republican in the primary, the situation might have been reversed.

[Tintrlvr]

In case anyone was wondering:

This is misleading, though, because New Hampshire has way more seats in its legislature than any other state to begin with.