State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Kamala]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

I agree and yes you did make YUGE gains an VA HD and picked up Alabama but the later was because Moore was a muh candidate with a lot of scandals. Oklahoma seems to be electing dems because Mary Fallin is a awful Governor. So far the only yuge warning is VA-HD.

This reads like a Bulgarian bot programmed to post random English words.

Virginia:


Virginia-HD:

[Virginiá]

I agree and yes you did make YUGE gains in the VA HD and picked up Alabama but the latter was because Moore was a muh candidate with lots of scandals. Oklahoma seems to be electing dems because Mary Fallin is a awful Governor. So in my view the  only yuge warning is VA-HD.

Actual election results between regularly scheduled federal general elections are not the only signs of a wave (in either direction). In addition, candidate recruitment, fundraising from small donors, enthusiasm (measured via polling), generic ballot polling, presidential approval polls all can help indicate signs of a wave. The last two especially, and historically have decently accurate in predicting vote shares in the upcoming election. The other things help but are best used in conjunction with actual approval/GCB polling.

You're doing yourself a disservice if the only markers you use to predict future elections are past election results.

[MAINEiac4434]

It’s early and while kinglear and limo liberal are annoying they are right that we don’t know what will happen but if this is the norm for all of 2018 we (could) see a even environment or a +1-2 either side which would be great for the GOP.

I think there was a Florida special election where Democrats under-performed pretty bad. Maybe also one in Mississippi? This is why the results of all of them are averaged together. Not every single special election will swing towards Democrats.

And for the record, these kinds of results that run counter to national trends happen to every party even when the result ends up being a wave. So don't break out the champagne anytime soon, Greedo.

I agree and yes you did make YUGE gains an VA HD and picked up Alabama but the later was because Moore was a muh candidate with a lot of scandals. Oklahoma seems to be electing dems because Mary Fallin is a awful Governor. So far the only yuge warning is VA-HD.

This reads like a Bulgarian bot programmed to post random English words.

Virginia:


Virginia-HD:

Marry me

[Nyvin]

On the positive side...this will encourage democrats not to get lazy about November.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Connecticut District 15:

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https://ctmirror.org/2018/01/09/gibson-defeats-suggs-in-special-house-election/

Both candidates were Democrats.

Next Up:

January 16, 2018
Iowa
See also: Iowa state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Iowa House of Representatives District 6   
South Carolina
See also: South Carolina state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ South Carolina House of Representatives District 28   
[show]☐ South Carolina House of Representatives District 99   
Wisconsin
See also: Wisconsin state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Wisconsin State Senate District 10   
[show]☐ Wisconsin State Assembly District 58   
[show]☐ Wisconsin State Assembly District 66   

[IceSpear]

On the positive side...this will encourage democrats not to get lazy about November.

What? Literally nobody outside of Atlas cares about these obscure elections. In fact, judging from the abysmal single digit turnout, Atlas cares more about them than the actual people in the districts, lol.

[Landslide Lyndon]

On the positive side...this will encourage democrats not to get lazy about November.

What? Literally nobody outside of Atlas cares about these obscure elections. In fact, judging from the abysmal single digit turnout, Atlas cares more about them than the actual people in the districts, lol.

They are a useful indicator of where the wind blows and which side is more enthusiastic.
Frankly last night's results are headscratching since Georgia was one of the best Democratic states in 2017 and they picked up seats considerably more difficult that those yesterday.
Maybe some people are still in holiday mood, or whatever.

[IceSpear]

On the positive side...this will encourage democrats not to get lazy about November.

What? Literally nobody outside of Atlas cares about these obscure elections. In fact, judging from the abysmal single digit turnout, Atlas cares more about them than the actual people in the districts, lol.

They are a useful indicator of where the wind blows and which side is more enthusiastic.
Frankly last night's results are headscratching since Georgia was one of the best Democratic states in 2017 and they picked up seats considerably more difficult that those yesterday.
Maybe some people are still in holiday mood, or whatever.

I meant the poster talking about how "these elections will encourage Democrats not to be lazy about November." I doubt any more than 0.0001% of Democrats are even aware of the existence of these elections.

[MAINEiac4434]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

How does this exactly work? They watched the game Monday night and forgot to vote next day?

[Horus]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

How does this exactly work? They watched the game Monday night and forgot to vote next day?

Something like that actually, yeah.

[Dr. MB]

They need to advertise these elections more... unless you follow politics closely you probably won't know it's even happening.

[MAINEiac4434]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

How does this exactly work? They watched the game Monday night and forgot to vote next day?

Yes. You’d be hard-pressed to get me to do anything the day after the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

[Nein Numb]

Is there a list anywhere of special elections coming up?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Is there a list anywhere of special elections coming up?

https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018

[mcmikk]

If anyone didn't already know, there's a State Senate special in Wisconsin tomorrow. It's a district in Western/Northwestern Wisconsin that Trump won fairly handily iirc. The Dem's performance will be interesting to watch to see if Obama-Trump in places like Western Wisconsin(a notably swingy area of the state) can still warm up to Democrats or if they're slowly drifting into solid GOP territory. If the Democrat runs it close or wins it will be pretty impressive.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

How does this exactly work? They watched the game Monday night and forgot to vote next day?

Yes. You’d be hard-pressed to get me to do anything the day after the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

I was a wreck after the perfect season super bowl loss. I didnt even go to school for 3 days after

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A slew of special elections tonight, and a chance for Democrats to get back to winning after their embarrassing performance in Georgia.

SC (7 ET): https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-28-special-election & https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-99-special-election

WI (9 ET): Something may show up here later: http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results-all

IA (10 ET): Not seeing a results page at the moment

[kph14]

A slew of special elections tonight, and a chance for Democrats to get back to winning after their embarrassing performance in Georgia.

SC (7 ET): https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-28-special-election & https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-99-special-election

WI (9 ET): Something may show up here later: http://elections.wi.gov/elections-voting/results-all

IA (10 ET): Not seeing a results page at the moment

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[Landslide Lyndon]

Are we forgetting that Georgia was in the college football championship game? That’s why turnout was so low.

How does this exactly work? They watched the game Monday night and forgot to vote next day?

Yes. You’d be hard-pressed to get me to do anything the day after the Patriots lost the Super Bowl.

I was a wreck after the perfect season super bowl loss. I didnt even go to school for 3 days after

Good God! And I thought we here in Greece took these things way too seriously.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

What's going on in sc hd 28, I see nothing.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is this a joke, I see no SC results!

[Ebsy]

SC House Seat #99 - Special Election
9/11 precincts reporting

Cindy Boatwright (DEM)  687   51.97%
Nancy Mace (REP) 634   47.96%
Write-In  1     .08%
Total 1,322

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

SC House Seat #99 - Special Election
9/11 precincts reporting

Cindy Boatwright (DEM)  687   51.97%
Nancy Mace (REP) 634   47.96%
Write-In  1     .08%
Total 1,322

Cool, where are you getting this from?

[LimoLiberal]

SC House Seat #99 - Special Election
9/11 precincts reporting

Cindy Boatwright (DEM)  687   51.97%
Nancy Mace (REP) 634   47.96%
Write-In  1     .08%
Total 1,322

HOLY SH*T!

Trump won this seat 58-35!