State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread  (Read 178306 times)
Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1175 on: January 23, 2018, 09:16:33 PM »
The reverse-banshee strikes again.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1176 on: January 23, 2018, 09:19:07 PM »
Quote from: Arch on January 23, 2018, 09:16:33 PM
The reverse-banshee strikes again.

The Democrats will lose 50 seats in the House and 3 seats in the Senate.







hope this works
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1177 on: January 23, 2018, 09:21:35 PM »
97% in, the Republican did manage to hit a quarter of the vote:

35th Legislative District County Breakdown
Davis, Austin
(DEM)
74.15%
    Votes: 3,046
Walker-Montgomery, Fawn
(REP)
25.85%
    Votes: 1,062
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1178 on: January 23, 2018, 09:22:50 PM »
So much for "Dems in disarray".
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Holmes
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« Reply #1179 on: January 23, 2018, 09:24:02 PM »
So a 48% margin of victory, 29% swing from Clinton/Trump and a 23% swing from the 2016 results.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1180 on: January 23, 2018, 09:27:38 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on January 23, 2018, 09:21:35 PM
97% in, the Republican did manage to hit a quarter of the vote:

35th Legislative District County Breakdown
Davis, Austin
(DEM)
74.15%
    Votes: 3,046
Walker-Montgomery, Fawn
(REP)
25.85%
    Votes: 1,062

Clinton won the seat 58-39. With only two precincts not reporting, we can probably say that there has been ~12-14% swing between the two parties, for ~25% net. PA-18 is R+11...
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1181 on: January 23, 2018, 09:41:45 PM »
Final Margin:

Austin Davis (D): 73.5% (3159)
Fawn Walker-Montgomery (R): 26.1% (1124)

Presidential margin: Clinton +19
Special election margin: Davis +47
28 point swing left.

DEM HOLD
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1182 on: January 23, 2018, 09:48:51 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 23, 2018, 09:41:45 PM
Final Margin:

Austin Davis (D): 73.5% (3159)
Fawn Walker-Montgomery (R): 26.1% (1124)

Presidential margin: Clinton +19
Special election margin: Davis +47
28 point swing left.

DEM HOLD

PA-18 voted Trump+20. It is R+11, and this is a 14 point swing left. Consistent with a slight dem pickup, at least, right now.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #1183 on: January 23, 2018, 09:56:34 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 23, 2018, 09:41:45 PM
Final Margin:

Austin Davis (D): 73.5% (3159)
Fawn Walker-Montgomery (R): 26.1% (1124)

Presidential margin: Clinton +19
Special election margin: Davis +47
28 point swing left.

DEM HOLD

How many seats would the Democrats win if they won by 28 points hypothetically? I would guess maybe 350-375 or so.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1184 on: January 23, 2018, 10:18:53 PM »
Wait, the district is south east of Pittsburgh and contains many solid-Clinton blue-collar towns and Limo seriously thought the Republican could win it?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1185 on: January 23, 2018, 10:19:53 PM »
"The Republicans can win this!" -Scott Presler on Twitter.
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
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« Reply #1186 on: January 23, 2018, 10:21:14 PM »
Quote from: Horus on January 23, 2018, 08:41:48 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 23, 2018, 08:38:46 PM
I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

So yeah, neither of you trust your gut again.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1187 on: January 23, 2018, 10:25:26 PM »
So we just swung the district 11 points to the Democrats.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1188 on: January 23, 2018, 10:27:16 PM »
LimoLiberal and Horus seriously look silly after this one. It wasn't even close.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1189 on: January 23, 2018, 10:28:35 PM »
Quote from: Let's Talk About Your Hair on January 23, 2018, 10:21:14 PM
Quote from: Horus on January 23, 2018, 08:41:48 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on January 23, 2018, 08:38:46 PM
I have a gut feeling the Republican is going to win, or make it a close-ish race

So yeah, neither of you trust your gut again.

I am one of the most consistently wrong people on this site.

I said Gillespie would win by 3 points, Northam won by 9.
I said Moore would win by 20+ points, Jones won by 2.

My latest prediction entails Saccone winning by 15+ points.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1190 on: January 23, 2018, 10:31:56 PM »
Next week, we're going into BDSM-Blackmail-Affair Land.

#HD39: 71-24 Trump; 61-37 Romney
#HD97: 61-33 Trump; 55-43 Romney
#HD129: 80-16 Trump; 70-28 Romney
#HD144: 78-19 Trump; 61-36 Romney

Tough districts, but an opportunity to give @EricGreitens a wedgie.

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/956005448393502720
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1191 on: January 23, 2018, 10:33:38 PM »
The Trump turds on twitter were seriously trying to rally around the Republican in this race as if she had a chance.
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Holmes
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« Reply #1192 on: January 23, 2018, 10:36:58 PM »
Interestingly, that one Republican precinct was not the most pro-Trump one in 2016.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1193 on: January 23, 2018, 10:40:23 PM »
Hey Limo if I come up with a snarky signature for you does your offer still stand?
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1194 on: January 23, 2018, 10:44:07 PM »
Yep. Seems like the Republican won only one precinct and none of the towns. Trump and Toomey won quite a few in 2016.
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1195 on: January 23, 2018, 11:05:00 PM »
OREGON NUMBERS:

145 OUT OF 1335 PRECINCTS REPORTED
YES
63.57%
425,897
NO
36.43%
244,043
TOTAL VOTES
669,940
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Holmes
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« Reply #1196 on: January 23, 2018, 11:06:28 PM »
Quote from: Dwarven Dragon on January 23, 2018, 11:05:00 PM
OREGON NUMBERS:

145 OUT OF 1335 PRECINCTS REPORTED
YES
63.57%
425,897
NO
36.43%
244,043
TOTAL VOTES
669,940

Oh that's better than I thought, but it's still early.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #1197 on: January 23, 2018, 11:07:36 PM »
Quote from: KingSweden on January 23, 2018, 10:40:23 PM
Hey Limo if I come up with a snarky signature for you does your offer still stand?

The offer stipulated that if the memo was never released, then there would be no consequences.

But yes, the offer still stands.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1198 on: January 23, 2018, 11:13:59 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on January 23, 2018, 10:44:07 PM
Yep. Seems like the Republican won only one precinct and none of the towns. Trump and Toomey won quite a few in 2016.

Isn’t she a city council member from that district and won by line 4 votes? Dunno how much more you can read into that
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1199 on: January 23, 2018, 11:19:31 PM »
Same # of precincts fully reported, but a little closer now:

145 OUT OF 1335 PRECINCTS REPORTED
YES
61.43%
470,173
NO
38.57%
295,247
TOTAL VOTES
765,420
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